117 Gray Birch Loop · Milton, LA 70592

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,651 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 154 Days on market

Built 2017 6,969 sqft lot $136/sqft · 7% below area Est $244k · 8% under $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this inviting Youngsville home that blends comfort, style, and everyday functionality. Step inside to find a bright, welcoming living space with an open flow that makes it easy to relax or entertain. The kitchen offers ample storage and workspace, along with convenient sightlines to the main living areas. The bedrooms provide flexible options for sleeping, working, or hobbies, and the bathrooms are designed for practical daily use.Outside, enjoy a backyard with room to unwind, garden, or host gatherings, along with space for outdoor activities. The property offers easy access to local shopping, dining, and community amenities, plus simple commutes to surrounding areas.Whether you're looking for your first home, a downsize, or a change of scenery, this Youngsville property delivers a comfortable setting with thoughtful features and a modern feel.

Key facts

• Easy access
• Backyard
• Ample storage

Tags

• AMPLE STORAGE
• BACKYARD
• EASY ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $372 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $198k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.6% in Milton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#89 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lafayette Parish (urban): math 38% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #19 of 98 in LA (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 675 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,585 units permitted in Lafayette Parish in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lafayette County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $187k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.09%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,292
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -7.90%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
129 Gray Birch Loop	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,613 (-2%)	3mo	$225,000	$139	91
303 Gray Birch Loop	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,613 (-2%)	6mo	$245,000	$152	86
115 Hacienda Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+5%)	2mo	$250,000	$145	66
131 Legend Creek Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,486 (-10%)	4mo	$249,800	$168	62
104 Bijou Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,684 (+2%)	2mo	$315,000	$187	61
125 Sojourner Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,522 (-8%)	0mo	$284,690	$187	60
310 Miramar Blvd	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,710 (+4%)	6mo	$250,000	$146	60
143 Legend Creek Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,444 (-12%)	0mo	$205,000	$142	59
302 Adelaide Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,684 (+2%)	6mo	$259,900	$154	58
120 Mirada Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,478 (-10%)	3mo	$235,000	$159	56
102 Crenshaw Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,506 (-9%)	3mo	$244,000	$162	51
314 Timber Bark Rd	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,469 (-11%)	5mo	$235,000	$160	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-15,872
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $4,220
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70592

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 675
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,316 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,841/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $372

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,844

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
114 Gadwall Dr Youngsville, LA	2.0	2.5	1305	$1,800	$1.38	43d	1	0.42mi
103 Bijou Dr Lafayette, LA	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,100	$1.38	43d	1	0.57mi
204 Crenshaw Dr Lafayette, LA	3.0	2.0	1337	$2,150	$1.61	20d	1	0.77mi
130 Windermere Cir Youngsville, LA	3.0	2.0	1493	$4,500	$3.01	43d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $225,000 Pending 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 144 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $225,000 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 138 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 137 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $225,000 Active 136 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    price $225,000 866-char remark

    Show marketing remark (866 chars)

    Discover this inviting Youngsville home that blends comfort, style, and everyday functionality. Step inside to find a bright, welcoming living space with an open flow that makes it easy to relax or entertain. The kitchen offers ample storage and workspace, along with convenient sightlines to the main living areas. The bedrooms provide flexible options for sleeping, working, or hobbies, and the bathrooms are designed for practical daily use.Outside, enjoy a backyard with room to unwind, garden, or host gatherings, along with space for outdoor activities. The property offers easy access to local shopping, dining, and community amenities, plus simple commutes to surrounding areas.Whether you're looking for your first home, a downsize, or a change of scenery, this Youngsville property delivers a comfortable setting with thoughtful features and a modern feel.

18. 2026-02-02
    price $230,000 866-char remark

    Show marketing remark (866 chars)

    Discover this inviting Youngsville home that blends comfort, style, and everyday functionality. Step inside to find a bright, welcoming living space with an open flow that makes it easy to relax or entertain. The kitchen offers ample storage and workspace, along with convenient sightlines to the main living areas. The bedrooms provide flexible options for sleeping, working, or hobbies, and the bathrooms are designed for practical daily use.Outside, enjoy a backyard with room to unwind, garden, or host gatherings, along with space for outdoor activities. The property offers easy access to local shopping, dining, and community amenities, plus simple commutes to surrounding areas.Whether you're looking for your first home, a downsize, or a change of scenery, this Youngsville property delivers a comfortable setting with thoughtful features and a modern feel.

19. 2026-01-14
    listed $235,000 Active 866-char remark

    Show marketing remark (866 chars)

    Discover this inviting Youngsville home that blends comfort, style, and everyday functionality. Step inside to find a bright, welcoming living space with an open flow that makes it easy to relax or entertain. The kitchen offers ample storage and workspace, along with convenient sightlines to the main living areas. The bedrooms provide flexible options for sleeping, working, or hobbies, and the bathrooms are designed for practical daily use.Outside, enjoy a backyard with room to unwind, garden, or host gatherings, along with space for outdoor activities. The property offers easy access to local shopping, dining, and community amenities, plus simple commutes to surrounding areas.Whether you're looking for your first home, a downsize, or a change of scenery, this Youngsville property delivers a comfortable setting with thoughtful features and a modern feel.

20. 2025-11-24
    price $239,900
21. 2025-09-20
    historical $1,950
22. 2025-08-12
    price $1,950
23. 2025-08-11
    price $245,000
24. 2025-07-01
    listed $250,000 Active
25. 2025-06-27
    listed $2,100
26. 2024-07-07
    price $239,900
27. 2024-06-24
    price $245,000
28. 2024-02-12
    listed $250,000 Active
29. 2017-05-12
    soldstatus $187,290
30. 2016-12-29
    listed $187,290
31. 2016-05-18
    soldstatus $37,750
32. 2016-02-22
    listed $37,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,841 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,841 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,789
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,841
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,223
• − Management: −$2,223
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $868
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$208
• After-tax cash flow: $4,260/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lafayette Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200870
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -24.00%
• Median HH income: $50,238
• Composite: 36.15/100
• National rank: #4741
• State rank: #19 of 98 in LA

Livability — Milton

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #89
• US rank: #9617

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lafayette Parish · 207,544 people
• City population: 24
• Metro: Lafayette, LA
• Population (ZIP): 32,167
• Household income: $93,204
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 424.0

Population outlook (Lafayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 280,930 people
• By 2030: 301,092 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 339,456 · +20.8%
• By 2050: 375,156 · +33.5%
• By 2075: 451,672 · +60.8%
• By 2100: 497,203 · +77.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 10% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 24% Romanian 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lafayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.5% · R 64.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.1pp no change · 2008: -31.3pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+33.6 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.24%
• Current HPI: 135.2825
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Lafayette, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+496.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $225,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $230,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $235,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $239,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-09-20 Rental Removed $1,950 RAAMLS
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $1,950 RAAMLS
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $245,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-07-01 Listed $250,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-06-27 Listed for Rent $2,100 RAAMLS
• 2024-07-07 Price Changed $239,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2024-06-24 Price Changed $245,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2024-02-12 Listed $250,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2017-05-12 Sold (MLS) $187,290 AcadianaMLS
• 2016-12-29 Listed $187,290 AcadianaMLS
• 2016-05-18 Sold (MLS) $37,750 AcadianaMLS
• 2016-02-22 Listed $37,750 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+24.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,841 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.