3500 S Tomahawk Rd #126 · Apache Junction, AZ 85119

$103,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 47 Days on market

Built 1989 Good condition Est $90k · 14% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• ARV discount +1.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Apache East Estates 55+ community! a desirable corner lot with an expansive, private yard--perfect for relaxing, gardening, or entertaining. Modern farmhouse design featuring wide-open living spaces, rich wood-look flooring, and abundant natural light. The kitchen is crisp white cabinetry, butcher-block style counters, subway tile backsplash, and striking black column accents with pendant lighting that frame the breakfast bar. The flow into the oversized living and dining areas makes this home ideal for both everyday comfort and hosting friends. Both bathrooms have been tastefully updated, while the oversized primary bedroom.

Key facts

• Private yard
• Corner lot
• White cabinetry

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• PRIVATE YARD
• MODERN FARMHOUSE DESIGN
• WHITE CABINETRY
• BUTCHER-BLOCK STYLE COUNTERS
• SUBWAY TILE BACKSPLASH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease (monthly); Land lease payment $760 per month; Association covers grounds maintenance and street maintenance; Community amenities: pool, heated community spa, racquetball, tennis courts, community media room

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: City water; Septic system (septic in & connected)
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile housing; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Desert front and back landscaping; Gravel/stone front and back; Automatic timer irrigation front and back; Storage; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Laminate countertops; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Full bath in primary bedroom; Laminate counters; Solar screens; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $103k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $833 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $103k).
• Recommended offer: $100k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 3.5% in Apache Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 357 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $712 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($100k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $103k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,910 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.66%
• DSCR: 2.54
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $90,048
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3500 S Tomahawk Rd #153	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	4mo	$77,500	$58	91
3500 S Tomahawk Rd #188	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	1mo	$75,000	$60	83
3700 S Tomahawk Rd #91	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,428 (+6%)	1mo	$85,000	$60	80
3700 S Tomahawk Rd #13	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,436 (+7%)	2mo	$59,000	$41	78
2400 E Baseline Ave #125	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,376 (+2%)	1mo	$82,900	$60	67
3700 S Tomahawk Rd #16	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+12%)	0mo	$119,900	$79	65
2400 E Baseline Ave #309	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-4%)	1mo	$131,000	$101	54
2605 S Tomahawk Rd #181	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-11%)	4mo	$125,000	$104	49
2400 E Baseline Rd #248	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,500 (+12%)	4mo	$152,500	$102	49
2400 E Baseline Ave #181	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+8%)	5mo	$148,000	$102	48
3355 S Cortez Rd #28	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	0mo	$77,000	$51	48
2400 E Baseline Ave #148	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,500 (+12%)	5mo	$100,000	$67	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $33,619
• Equity at exit: $15,358

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.00×
• Total profit: $86,650
• Equity at exit: $8,906

Cash invested: $28,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85119

• Home prices YoY: -33.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 357
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,955 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$540
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$129 /mo · $1,545/yr
• Insurance: −$43
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $833

Break-even live

Break-even rent $901

Max offer price $103,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $904	-5% $869	+0% $833	+5% $797	+10% $762
Rent	-10% $679	-5% $756	+0% $833	+5% $910	+10% $987
Rate	-1.0pp $885	-0.5pp $859	base $833	+0.5pp $806	+1.0pp $779

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,750
• Closing costs: $3,090
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3478 S Chaparral Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.5	1614	$1,850	$1.15	6d	1	0.29mi
3448 S Chaparral Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1186	$1,848	$1.56	12d	1	0.32mi
3277 S Chaparral Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.5	1614	$1,770	$1.10	4d	1	0.37mi
3705 S Conestoga Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,895	$1.11	25d	1	0.51mi
3333 S Conestoga Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1387	$2,900	$2.09	25d	1	0.52mi
3879 S Conestoga Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,910	$1.21	25d	1	0.54mi
2681 E Boulder Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	3.5	1776	$2,200	$1.24	25d	1	0.87mi
700 E Quail Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1168	$1,795	$1.54	6d	1	0.96mi
705 E Kachina Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,655	$1.90	6d	1	1.26mi
3301 S Goldfield Rd Unit 4077 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	2.0	1548	$1,850	$1.20	25d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $103,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $103,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $103,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $103,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $103,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $103,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $103,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $103,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $103,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $103,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $103,000 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $103,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    price $103,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    listed $105,000 Active
17. 2026-04-01
    historical $1,700
18. 2026-04-01
    historical
19. 2026-03-16
    price $114,900
20. 2025-10-26
    price $120,000
21. 2025-10-05
    price $121,500
22. 2025-08-29
    listed $1,700
23. 2025-08-26
    listed $123,000 Active
24. 2025-08-26
    historical
25. 2025-07-16
    price $125,000
26. 2025-04-16
    price $128,000
27. 2025-03-08
    listed $133,000 Active
28. 2023-06-20
    soldstatus $50,000 Closed
29. 2023-06-02
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
30. 2023-05-11
    price $65,000
31. 2023-03-25
    price $80,000
32. 2023-02-23
    price $88,000
33. 2023-02-04
    listed $100,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,466
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,770
• − Property taxes: −$1,545
• − Insurance: −$515
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,877
• − Management: −$1,877
• − Depreciation: −$2,996
• Taxable income: $8,885
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,132
• After-tax cash flow: $7,864/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This modern manufactured home in Apache East Estates is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good kitchen, bathrooms, and exterior. The home is move-in ready with minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding a small patio or seating area — Can increase both resale and rental value by providing outdoor living space.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a small patio or seating area — Can increase both resale and rental value by providing outdoor living space. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apache Junction Unified District (4443)
• NCES district ID: 0400790
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,930
• Composite: 15.34/100
• National rank: #9325
• State rank: #195 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Apache Junction

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #11242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 56,611
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,420
• Household income: $71,585
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 305.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.19%
• Current HPI: 274.3808
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+5.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $105,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Rental Removed $1,700 ARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $114,900 ARMLS
• 2025-10-26 Price Changed $120,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-05 Price Changed $121,500 ARMLS
• 2025-08-29 Listed for Rent $1,700 ARMLS
• 2025-08-26 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-08-26 Listed $123,000 ARMLS
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $125,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-16 Price Changed $128,000 ARMLS
• 2025-03-08 Listed $133,000 ARMLS
• 2023-06-20 Sold (MLS) $50,000 ARMLS
• 2023-06-02 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2023-05-11 Price Changed $65,000 ARMLS
• 2023-03-25 Price Changed $80,000 ARMLS
• 2023-02-23 Price Changed $88,000 ARMLS
• 2023-02-04 Listed $100,000 ARMLS