Kofa Plan · Crosby, TX 77532

$166,990

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,013 sqft · SingleFamily · 360 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The first floor of this two-story home opens into a shared living space between the kitchen and family room for easy entertaining, along with a convenient powder room. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and is comprised of an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile secondary bedroom and full-sized bathroom are also upstairs, ideal for household members or overnight guests.

Key facts

• Green space
• Low hoa fees
• Single family homes

Tags

• SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
• LOW HOA FEES
• GREEN SPACE
• WALKING TRAILS
• PRIME LOCATION
• PROXIMITY TO SHOPPING CENTERS

🏗️ New construction. The $166,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $235,512.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $167k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-164 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $167k).
• Recommended offer: $147k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Crosby H S (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,937 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1723 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 360 days — a 12% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $146,951 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 360 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.98%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,512
• List price: $166,990
• Delta: -29.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20162 Green Mallard St	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,013 (0%)	6mo	$181,990	$180	92
20178 Green Mallard St	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,013 (0%)	7mo	$181,990	$180	92
20171 Green Mallard St	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,013 (0%)	7mo	$181,990	$180	92
20130 Green Mallard St	0.38mi	2/2.5	1,013 (0%)	3mo	$153,790	$152	80
20123 Green Mallard St	0.40mi	2/2.5	1,013 (0%)	4mo	$125,241	$124	78
20146 Green Mallard St	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,013 (0%)	5mo	$181,990	$180	76
20155 Green Mallard St	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,013 (0%)	5mo	$181,990	$180	76
20139 Green Mallard St	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,013 (0%)	5mo	$181,990	$180	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-51,352
• Equity at exit: $35,116

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-69,137
• Equity at exit: $20,363

Cash invested: $65,943 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 6 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.0 mo (33%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $156,490 ($148/sqft)
• Median days on market: 23 d
• This list price: 67% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +57.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1723
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,853 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,235
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$294 /mo · $3,533/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $-164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,060

Max offer price $211,828

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1	-5% $-82	+0% $-164	+5% $-245	+10% $-326
Rent	-10% $-310	-5% $-237	+0% $-164	+5% $-90	+10% $-17
Rate	-1.0pp $-45	-0.5pp $-104	base $-164	+0.5pp $-225	+1.0pp $-287

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,878
• Closing costs: $7,065
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20119 Iron Winds St Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,795	$1.27	12d	1	0.20mi
20110 White Dove Trl Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	5d	1	0.42mi
20034 White Dove Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1273	$1,850	$1.45	108d	1	0.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $166,990 Active 360 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $166,990 Active 359 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $166,990 Active 358 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $166,990 Active 357 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $166,990 Active 356 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $166,990 Active 355 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $166,990 Active 354 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $166,990 Active 353 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $166,990 Active 352 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $166,990 Active 351 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    pricedays on market $166,990 Active 350 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $165,990 Active 349 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    pricedays on market $165,990 Active 348 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $167,990 Active 347 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $167,990 Active 341 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $167,990 Active 340 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    pricedays on market $167,990 Active 338 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $165,990 Active 336 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $165,990 Active 334 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $165,990 Active 333 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $165,990 Active 332 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $165,990 Active 330 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $165,990 Active 329 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $165,990 Active 328 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $165,990 Active 327 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $165,990 Active 326 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $165,990 Active 325 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $165,990 Active 324 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    price $165,990 Active 323 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $162,990 Active 323 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $162,990 Active 322 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $162,990 Active 321 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $162,990 Active 320 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $162,990 Active 319 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $162,990 Active 318 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $162,990 Active 317 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $162,990 Active 316 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $162,990 Active 315 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $162,990 Active 314 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $162,990 Active 313 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $162,990 Active 311 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $162,990 Active 310 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    pricedays on market $162,990 Active 309 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $160,990 Active 308 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $160,990 Active 305 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $160,990 Active 304 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $160,990 Active 303 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $160,990 Active 302 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $160,990 Active 300 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $160,990 Active 298 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,236
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,192
• − Property taxes: −$3,533
• − Insurance: −$1,178
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,779
• − Management: −$1,779
• − Depreciation: −$6,851
• Taxable loss: −$6,075
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,458
• After-tax cash flow: $-506/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,065–$15,195 screening

This two-story home is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good balance of functionality and aesthetics, making it a solid investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

High Crosby H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Crosby

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1121
• US rank: #19783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 33,780
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-29 Listed $179,990 Zillow