6315 Wingate Hill Rd · Denver, NC 28037

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Manufactured public records · 111 Days on market

Built 1999 0.82 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.82 acre lot
• Built 1999
• Listed 111 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $538 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 2.1% in Denver — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#255 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lincoln County Schools (rural): math 57% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #42 of 178 in NC (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: St James Elementary (math 71% / reading 68%, grade A-, #95 of 1,410 statewide, top 7%, 633 students, 27% FRL); North Lincoln High (math 75% / reading 74%, grade B+, #92 of 535 statewide, top 18%, 1,079 students, 27% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 72% at this address vs 56% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lincoln County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 373 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 697 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lincoln County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $56k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $93k; list at $189k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,990 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.20%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,730
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $17,103
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28037

• Home prices YoY: -22.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 373
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,157 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,154/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $538

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,476

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2805 Sweeping Pine Ln Denver, NC	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,100	$1.25	17d	1	0.67mi
2822 Fay Jones Rd Denver, NC	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,895	$1.26	17d	1	1.16mi
5433 King Wilkinson Rd Denver, NC	3.0	2.0	1550	$2,295	$1.48	12d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-06
   price $189,000
3. 2026-02-19
   status Active
4. 2026-01-25
   historical Active Under Contract
5. 2025-11-26
   status Active
6. 2025-11-13
   listed $245,000 Active
7. 2025-10-24
   historical $245,000
8. 2007-11-14
   soldstatus $93,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,154 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,550 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: +$396/yr (+$33/mo · 34.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,885
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$1,154
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,071
• − Management: −$2,071
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $3,560
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$854
• After-tax cash flow: $5,603/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702680
• Math proficiency: 57% ▲ 7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,203
• Composite: 47.7/100
• National rank: #2242
• State rank: #42 of 178 in NC

Livability — Denver

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #255
• US rank: #11212

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing B+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lincoln County · 69,118 people
• City population: 28,768
• Metro: Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
• Population (ZIP): 28,768
• Household income: $111,703
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 546.0

Population outlook (Lincoln County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 86,972 people
• By 2030: 89,467 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 93,107 · +7.1%
• By 2050: 94,304 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 95,190 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 90,096 · +3.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lincoln

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.7) · D 26.8% · R 72.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.3pp · 2024: -45.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.7 2020: R+45.9 2016: R+47.7 2012: R+38.9 2008: R+33.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.60%
• Current HPI: 263.1328
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.26%
• Metro: Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+103.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Pending — CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $189,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Relisted — CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-25 Contingent — CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-26 Relisted — CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-13 Listed $245,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-24 Coming Soon $245,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $93,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,154 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.