1050 Deborah Dr #1050 · McKinleyville, CA 95519

$129,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 702 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 2017 Est $241k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move in ready, well maintained, 2017 manufactured home in Thunderbird park. Laminate floors, open floor plan, raised garden beds, covered carport, and storage shed.

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Front porch
• Storage shed

Tags

• LOW MAINTENANCE LIVING
• NEWER MANUFACTURED HOME
• ESSENTIAL DOWNTOWN AMENITIES
• FRONT PORCH
• COVERED PARKING
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected with circuit breakers; Natural gas connected/available
• Home design: Residential single-family home; Single family zoning
• Construction: Concrete construction; Shingle roof; Manufactured home: Golden West Gold Series; Located in Thunderbird park
• Exterior features: Level lot; Concrete and paved road access; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 total rooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating; Has heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Double pane windows; Insulation for energy efficiency
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $412 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 2.8% in McKinleyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,028 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Mckinleyville Union Elementary (town): math 34% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #789 of 1,400 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Morris Elementary (292 students, 59% FRL); Mckinleyville Middle (360 students, 54% FRL); Mckinleyville High (math 10% / reading 50%, grade F, #723 of 1,170 statewide, top 64%, 556 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Humboldt County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Humboldt County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $129,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.70%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $241,488
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2580 Central Ave #3	0.70mi	2/1.0	784 (+12%)	10mo	$105,000	$134	40
1678 Childrens Ave	0.67mi	1/1.0 (-1)	800 (+14%)	20mo	$275,000	$344	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $5,382
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $38,603
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95519

• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$161 /mo · $1,935/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $412

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,128

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $501	-5% $457	+0% $412	+5% $368	+10% $323
Rent	-10% $282	-5% $347	+0% $412	+5% $478	+10% $543
Rate	-1.0pp $477	-0.5pp $445	base $412	+0.5pp $379	+1.0pp $345

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 690-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   remarks 486-char remark
4. 2026-06-19
   listed $129,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥72°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,805
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,935
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,584
• − Management: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $3,077
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$739
• After-tax cash flow: $4,209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mckinleyville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0624300
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,399
• Composite: 35.18/100
• National rank: #9872
• State rank: #789 of 1400 in CA

Livability — McKinleyville

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1028
• US rank: #25015

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: McKinleyville, CA
• County: Humboldt County · 88,652 people
• City population: 18,728
• Metro: Eureka-Arcata, CA
• Population (ZIP): 18,728
• Household income: $73,280
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 730.0

Population outlook (Humboldt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 135,550 people
• By 2030: 134,798 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 132,222 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 130,850 · -3.5%
• By 2075: 128,656 · -5.1%
• By 2100: 120,238 · -11.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 11% Native American 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Humboldt

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.4) · D 62.0% · R 33.6% · Other 4.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 28.2pp · 2024: 28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.4 2020: D+33.4 2016: D+25.9 2012: D+26.2 2008: D+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -385.83%
• Current HPI: 197.0133
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Eureka-Arcata, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+43.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $129,000 HAR
• 2022-11-10 Sold (MLS) $90,000 HAR
• 2022-09-28 Delisted — HAR
• 2022-09-28 Listed $90,000 HAR