5615 S Burnham St · Central Heights-Midland City, AZ 85501

$79,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 661 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1920 1.50 ac lot $121/sqft · 42% below area Est $138k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home offers great potential as a fixer-upper, situated on a spacious 1.51-acre lot in Central Heights. The exterior features durable rock and concrete construction, complemented by a shingle roof. The property is on septic and tucked away off the beaten path, offering a quiet setting

Key facts

• Quiet setting
• Shingle roof
• 1.5 acre lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS 1.51-ACRE LOT
• SHINGLE ROOF
• QUIET SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Utilities: Private water company; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership; Road access includes dirt and asphalt
• Construction: Built with stone and other materials
• Exterior features: Stone and other exterior materials; Other fencing; Composition roof; Dirt front yard; Dirt back yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Floor furnace; Wall furnace; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Wood flooring; Washer/dryer hookup only
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Miami Unified District (4211) (rural): math 8% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #221 of 249 in AZ (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Dr. Charles A. Bejarano Elementary School (238 students, 66% FRL); Miami Junior Senior High School (math 7% / reading 8%, grade F, #358 of 381 statewide, top 94%, 495 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,503 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.71%
• DSCR: 3.57
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $138,071
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -42.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5676 E Globe Cyn	0.37mi	2/1.0	748 (+13%)	2mo	$65,000	$87	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $55,576
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.11×
• Total profit: $136,617
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85501

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,990 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $526/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $1,076

Break-even live

Break-even rent $628

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,121	-5% $1,099	+0% $1,076	+5% $1,053	+10% $1,031
Rent	-10% $919	-5% $997	+0% $1,076	+5% $1,155	+10% $1,233
Rate	-1.0pp $1,116	-0.5pp $1,096	base $1,076	+0.5pp $1,055	+1.0pp $1,034

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5887 E Hill Ln Globe, AZ	2.0	1.0	674	$1,990	$2.95	25d	1	0.56mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $79,900 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,900 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,900 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $79,900 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-04
    listed $79,900 Active 289-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $526 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $527 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: +$1/yr ($0/mo · 0.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$526
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,910
• − Management: −$1,910
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $12,333
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,960
• After-tax cash flow: $9,951/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami Unified District (4211)
• NCES district ID: 0405030
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $33,063
• Composite: 10.86/100
• National rank: #9760
• State rank: #221 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Central Heights-Midland City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Central Heights-Midland City, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 12,353

Population outlook (Gila County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,229 people
• By 2030: 48,202 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 44,101 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 41,041 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 37,536 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 32,485 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 16% Native American 5% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 12% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gila

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.8% · R 68.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+27.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.96%
• Current HPI: 296.458
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $79,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2023): $526 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.