11170 Challenge Dr · Bon Aqua Junction, TN 37025

$209,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1988 1.00 ac lot Est $294k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Appreciation +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3br 1.5 ba 2 outbldgs, fenced area, home has many upgrades,Great starter family home in the heart of Bon Aqua- rural community, quiet surroundings, location is perfect for commuters, 5 miles to interstate & nearby Dickson, shopping, dining, movies, parks, etc.& 5 min to schools and more shopping, dining, parks etc...in the local East Hickman community. Can also travel Hwy 100 into Bellevue, 8-40 to Franklin, Spring Hill, Hwy 46/7 to Columbia- can get to these areas within 30 min.

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• No carpet
• New hvac

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• NO CARPET
• TWO SEPARATE GARAGES
• NEW ROOF
• NEW HVAC

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Three covered parking spaces (3 total garage spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity available; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Existing construction (year built: existing)
• Exterior features: Deck; Partial fencing; Located on a cul-de-sac; Level lot (approximately 1 acre)

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Oven; Range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level); Bedroom sizes approximately 14x12, 12x12 and 12x10
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl; Other
• Bathrooms: One full bath; One half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closets; Crawl space basement; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room (approx. 8x6)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($465/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.0% in Bon Aqua Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#162 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hickman County (rural): math 20% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #107 of 139 in TN (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: East Hickman Elementary (446 students, 0% FRL); East Hickman Middle School (math 7% / reading 16%, grade F, #247 of 333 statewide, top 75%, 385 students, 0% FRL); East Hickman High School (math 2% / reading 22%, grade F, #259 of 332 statewide, top 79%, 468 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 121 units permitted in Hickman County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.6%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hickman County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,222 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.79%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $294,192
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10816 Church Rd	0.17mi	3/1.5	1,248 (-4%)	15mo	$325,000	$260	71
9999 Old Highway 46	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+12%)	9mo	$329,900	$227	58
9824 Old Highway 46	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,120 (-14%)	5mo	$244,000	$218	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-28,595
• Equity at exit: $34,531

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-19,461
• Equity at exit: $23,752

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37025

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,652 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $940/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,603

Max offer price $209,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $158	-5% $98	+0% $39	+5% $-21	+10% $-80
Rent	-10% $-92	-5% $-27	+0% $39	+5% $104	+10% $169
Rate	-1.0pp $144	-0.5pp $92	base $39	+0.5pp $-16	+1.0pp $-71

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10560 Church Rd Unit NA Bon Aqua, TN	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,850	$1.48	3d	1	0.78mi
129 Murrell Ln Bon Aqua, TN	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,300	$1.08	9d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $209,900 Pending 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,900 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,900 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,900 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $209,900 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $209,900 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $209,900 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $209,900 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $209,900 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-05-20
    listed $209,900 Active
11. 2021-07-12
    soldstatus $245,000
12. 2021-07-09
    soldstatus $245,000 Closed 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    3br 1.5 ba 2 outbldgs, fenced area, home has many upgrades,Great starter family home in the heart of Bon Aqua- rural community, quiet surroundings, location is perfect for commuters, 5 miles to interstate & nearby Dickson, shopping, dining, movies, parks, etc.& 5 min to schools and more shopping, dining, parks etc...in the local East Hickman community. Can also travel Hwy 100 into Bellevue, 8-40 to Franklin, Spring Hill, Hwy 46/7 to Columbia- can get to these areas within 30 min.

13. 2021-06-07
    historical Active Under Contract 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    3br 1.5 ba 2 outbldgs, fenced area, home has many upgrades,Great starter family home in the heart of Bon Aqua- rural community, quiet surroundings, location is perfect for commuters, 5 miles to interstate & nearby Dickson, shopping, dining, movies, parks, etc.& 5 min to schools and more shopping, dining, parks etc...in the local East Hickman community. Can also travel Hwy 100 into Bellevue, 8-40 to Franklin, Spring Hill, Hwy 46/7 to Columbia- can get to these areas within 30 min.

14. 2021-06-06
    listed $244,900 Active 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    3br 1.5 ba 2 outbldgs, fenced area, home has many upgrades,Great starter family home in the heart of Bon Aqua- rural community, quiet surroundings, location is perfect for commuters, 5 miles to interstate & nearby Dickson, shopping, dining, movies, parks, etc.& 5 min to schools and more shopping, dining, parks etc...in the local East Hickman community. Can also travel Hwy 100 into Bellevue, 8-40 to Franklin, Spring Hill, Hwy 46/7 to Columbia- can get to these areas within 30 min.

15. 2021-06-04
    historical $244,900 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    3br 1.5 ba 2 outbldgs, fenced area, home has many upgrades,Great starter family home in the heart of Bon Aqua- rural community, quiet surroundings, location is perfect for commuters, 5 miles to interstate & nearby Dickson, shopping, dining, movies, parks, etc.& 5 min to schools and more shopping, dining, parks etc...in the local East Hickman community. Can also travel Hwy 100 into Bellevue, 8-40 to Franklin, Spring Hill, Hwy 46/7 to Columbia- can get to these areas within 30 min.

16. 2000-03-27
    soldstatus $91,900
17. 1992-07-01
    soldstatus $47,500
18. 1988-11-05
    soldstatus $43,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $940 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,490 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$550/yr (+$46/mo · 58.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,827
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$940
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,586
• − Management: −$1,586
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$3,199
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$768
• After-tax cash flow: $1,232/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hickman County
• NCES district ID: 4701860
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $39,457
• Composite: 18.14/100
• National rank: #8966
• State rank: #107 of 139 in TN

Livability — Bon Aqua Junction

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #162
• US rank: #14050

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,321

Population outlook (Hickman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,337 people
• By 2030: 22,650 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 21,310 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 19,972 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 17,073 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 14,630 · -37.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 8% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hickman

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 19.1% · R 80.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -46.7pp toward R · 2008: -14.4pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+55.4 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+27.2 2008: R+14.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.65%
• Current HPI: 359.6663
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+388.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $209,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $245,000 Public Records
• 2021-07-09 Sold (MLS) $245,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-07 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-06 Listed $244,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-04 Coming Soon $244,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $91,900 Public Records
• 1992-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $47,500 Public Records
• 1988-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $940 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.