9616 Long Point Rd #33 · Houston, TX 77055

$110,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 626 sqft · Condo public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1965 $264/mo HOA · 22% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity. Remodeling is needed and great for single or couple looking to get the tax credit.

Key facts

• Recently remodeled
• Security gates
• $264 HOA

Tags

• 4 MINUTES DRIVE AWAY FROM I-10
• RECENTLY REMODELED
• SECURITY GATES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered
• HOA & community: Member of Macarthur HOA; HOA fee $264 monthly (covers structure maintenance, sewer, trash, water); Community pool

Exterior

• Utilities: Aerobic septic sewer
• Home design: Residential property; 1 story; Built in 1965; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 1965
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Brick exterior

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: 1 total room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-142/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $108k (1.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (1.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Spring Branch ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #215 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Woodview El (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,221 of 4,322 statewide, top 75%, 525 students, 95% FRL); Spring Woods Middle (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,378 of 1,662 statewide, top 83%, 814 students, 92% FRL); Spring Woods H S (math 53% / reading 36%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,113 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 54% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Spring Branch ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 447 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask is 12122% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $107,906 (1.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.46%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-20,338
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-25,658
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77055

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 447
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,209 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $960/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$264
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $-12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,224

Max offer price $107,906

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $50	-5% $19	+0% $-12	+5% $-43	+10% $-74
Rent	-10% $-107	-5% $-60	+0% $-12	+5% $36	+10% $84
Rate	-1.0pp $44	-0.5pp $16	base $-12	+0.5pp $-40	+1.0pp $-69

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1620 Oak Tree Dr Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	704	$1,169	$1.66	45d	1	0.35mi
1620 Oak Tree Dr Unit 1671 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	704	$968	$1.38	14d	1	0.35mi
1620 Oak Tree Dr Unit 1641 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	704	$1,065	$1.51	16d	1	0.35mi
1620 Oak Tree Dr Unit 1162 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	704	$979	$1.39	7d	1	0.35mi
1620 Oak Tree Dr Unit 1694 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	704	$1,018	$1.45	12d	1	0.35mi
1620 Oak Tree Dr Unit 1148 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	704	$968	$1.38	1d	1	0.35mi
1620 Oak Tree Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	704	$1,118	$1.59	7d	6	0.35mi
1550 Blalock Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	965	$859	$0.89	4d	47	0.41mi
1720 Crestdale Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	832	$994	$1.19	1d	13	0.50mi
9757 Pine Lake Dr Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	718	$1,029	$1.43	45d	1	0.56mi
1217 Blalock Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	818	$809	$0.99	1d	14	0.64mi
9739 Neuens Rd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	680	$910	$1.34	45d	1	0.66mi
1359 Witte Rd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	702	$975	$1.39	45d	1	0.69mi
1111 Blalock Rd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	733	$1,034	$1.41	14d	1	0.75mi
1111 Blalock Rd Unit 1132 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	733	$1,084	$1.48	12d	1	0.78mi
1111 Blalock Rd Unit 1112 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	733	$1,034	$1.41	1d	1	0.78mi
1111 Blalock Rd Unit 1132 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	733	$1,080	$1.47	15d	1	0.78mi
1562 Gessner Rd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	635	$950	$1.50	45d	1	0.88mi
1776 Gessner Rd Houston, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	934	$919	$0.98	45d	11	0.92mi
9757 Katy Fwy Unit 1187 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	727	$2,151	$2.96	1d	1	0.98mi
9757 Katy Fwy Unit 9772 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	727	$2,201	$3.03	12d	1	0.98mi
9757 Katy Fwy Unit 9772 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	727	$2,136	$2.94	16d	1	0.98mi
9757 Katy Fwy Unit 1162 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	727	$2,162	$2.97	7d	1	0.98mi
9757 Katy Fwy Unit 323 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	727	$2,131	$2.93	15d	1	0.98mi
1610 Campbell Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	882	$1,374	$1.56	0d	46	1.00mi
970 Bunker Hill Rd Unit 1044 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	405	$1,024	$2.53	13d	1	1.00mi
970 Bunker Hill Rd Unit 991 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	405	$1,029	$2.54	15d	1	1.00mi
970 Bunker Hill Rd Unit 1021 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	405	$1,024	$2.53	45d	1	1.00mi
9789 Katy Fwy Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	1038	$3,206	$3.09	0d	14	1.02mi
970 Bunker Hill Rd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	405	$1,024	$2.53	15d	1	1.05mi
12000 Barryknoll Ln Unit 12015 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	645	$1,562	$2.42	16d	1	1.29mi
12000 Barryknoll Ln Unit 12015 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	645	$1,446	$2.24	12d	1	1.29mi
12000 Barryknoll Ln Unit 1162 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	645	$1,407	$2.18	7d	1	1.29mi
12000 Barryknoll Ln Unit 1148 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	645	$1,396	$2.16	1d	1	1.29mi
12000 Barryknoll Ln Apt 324 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	645	$1,396	$2.16	14d	1	1.29mi
2007 Laverne St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	592	$870	$1.47	45d	1	1.33mi
913 Piney Point Rd Unit MC1 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	685	$1,872	$2.73	24d	1	1.34mi
8856 Long Point Rd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	720	$1,523	$2.12	45d	1	1.37mi
8850 Long Point Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	994	$1,237	$1.24	0d	35	1.38mi
878 Bettina Ct Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	670	$1,015	$1.51	24d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $264 · $3,168/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $110,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $110,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $110,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-28
    listed $900
16. 2026-05-27
    listed $110,000 Active
17. 2023-02-08
    historical
18. 2023-01-19
    price $100,000
19. 2022-12-13
    listed $105,000 Active
20. 2009-09-11
    soldstatus 112-char remark

    Show marketing remark (112 chars)

    Great investment opportunity. Remodeling is needed and great for single or couple looking to get the tax credit.

21. 2009-08-13
    historical 112-char remark

    Show marketing remark (112 chars)

    Great investment opportunity. Remodeling is needed and great for single or couple looking to get the tax credit.

22. 2009-05-30
    listed $29,900 112-char remark

    Show marketing remark (112 chars)

    Great investment opportunity. Remodeling is needed and great for single or couple looking to get the tax credit.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $960 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,013 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,053/yr (+$88/mo · 109.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,504
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$960
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,160
• − Management: −$1,160
• − HOA: −$3,168
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$1,857
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$446
• After-tax cash flow: $303/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring Branch ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841100
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,311
• Composite: 40.88/100
• National rank: #3624
• State rank: #215 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 45,435
• Household income: $74,369
• Rent vs Own: 54.0% rent · 46.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2571.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 33% Two or more races 18% Asian 6% Black 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 46% English-only · Spanish 45% Chinese 2% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -488.83%
• Current HPI: 251.807
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.41%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+267.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed for Rent $900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Listed $110,000 HARMLS
• 2023-02-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-01-19 Price Changed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2022-12-13 Listed $105,000 HARMLS
• 2009-09-11 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2009-08-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-05-30 Listed $29,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $960 · -10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.