5043 Apache Moon · Canyon Lake, TX 78070

$135,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · Manufactured public records · 544 Days on market

Built 1993 0.59 ac lot ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Quiet neighborhood tucked away just off of 281 and Rebecca Creek rd. This area offers country living with quick access to San Antonio, Blanco, Austin and Canyon Lake. Spring Branch is one of the best kept secrets in the Texas Hill Country with access to grocery stores, hardware and lumber store, several excellent food places and live entertainment venues.

Key facts

• Country living
• Quiet neighborhood
• 0.59 acre lot

Tags

• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• COUNTRY LIVING
• QUICK ACCESS TO SAN ANTONIO
• ACCESS TO GROCERY STORES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession at closing/funding; For sale (not a short sale)
• Financial info: Down payment resources available
• HOA & community: Located in INDIAN HILLS / INDIAN HILLS EST 2 subdivision

Exterior

• Parking: Detached quarters (may provide additional parking/storage)
• Utilities: Septic
• Home design: Pre-owned single-family property; Front faces north and east; Approximately 31 years old
• Construction: Cement fiber exterior; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck/balcony; Partial fence; Double-pane windows; Storage building/shed; Detached quarters; Storm doors; Mature trees; Gently rolling, mostly level lot; County/canyon lake view; Street paved

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen, approximately 10 x 12; Stove/Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Open to living area
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom (lower level), approximately 12 x 15; Second bedroom, approximately 9 x 13
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Master bath with tub/shower combination, approximately 5 x 12
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan with an eat-in kitchen; Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; Some window coverings remain; 1 living area
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $370 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 2.3% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rebecca Creek El (math 55% / reading 52%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 605 students, 51% FRL); Canyon Lake H S (math 46% / reading 56%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 1,038 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: 633 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 544 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $90k (40%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 544 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.74%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,686
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $31,848
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78070

• Home prices YoY: -20.8%
• Active inventory: 633
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,628 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,828/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $370

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,160

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1197 Chisolm Trl Unit A Spring Branch, TX	3.0	2.0	1226	$1,450	$1.18	44d	1	0.57mi
2341 Puter Creek Rd Spring Branch, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,700	$1.70	44d	1	0.62mi
3133 Puter Creek Rd Unit B Canyon Lake, TX	1.0	1.0	816	$1,300	$1.59	20d	1	0.64mi
109 High Dr Spring Branch, TX	2.0	3.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	44d	1	0.67mi
229 High Dr Unit B Spring Branch, TX	2.0	2.5	1283	$1,690	$1.32	44d	1	0.78mi
229 High Dr Unit A Spring Branch, TX	2.0	2.5	1283	$1,500	$1.17	4d	1	0.78mi
529 Lone Shadow Dr Unit A Spring Branch, TX	1.0	1.5	1208	$1,540	$1.27	13d	1	0.82mi
2381 Cypress Gardens Blvd Spring Branch, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,195	$1.49	44d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   price $135,000
3. 2026-02-17
   price $140,000
4. 2026-01-13
   price $145,000
5. 2025-12-12
   price $150,000
6. 2025-11-10
   price $155,000
7. 2025-10-11
   price $160,000
8. 2025-08-31
   price $165,000
9. 2025-05-27
   price $170,000
10. 2025-05-02
    price $180,000
11. 2025-04-09
    price $185,000
12. 2025-03-27
    price $190,000
13. 2025-03-12
    price $205,000
14. 2025-03-12
    status Back on Market
15. 2025-01-15
    historical
16. 2024-12-01
    price $210,000
17. 2024-11-05
    price $215,000
18. 2024-10-01
    price $220,000
19. 2024-08-31
    listed $225,000 New
20. 1997-02-28
    soldstatus
21. 1993-08-10
    soldstatus
22. 1985-07-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,828 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$643/yr (+$54/mo · 35.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,537
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,828
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,563
• − Management: −$1,563
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $2,420
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$581
• After-tax cash flow: $3,856/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,200
• Household income: $115,175
• Rent vs Own: 10.8% rent · 89.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 73.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.35%
• Current HPI: 233.2875
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-40.0% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — LERA
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $135,000 LERA
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $140,000 LERA
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $145,000 LERA
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $150,000 LERA
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $155,000 LERA
• 2025-10-11 Price Changed $160,000 LERA
• 2025-08-31 Price Changed $165,000 LERA
• 2025-05-27 Price Changed $170,000 LERA
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $180,000 LERA
• 2025-04-09 Price Changed $185,000 LERA
• 2025-03-27 Price Changed $190,000 LERA
• 2025-03-12 Price Changed $205,000 LERA
• 2025-03-12 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-01-15 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-12-01 Price Changed $210,000 LERA
• 2024-11-05 Price Changed $215,000 LERA
• 2024-10-01 Price Changed $220,000 LERA
• 2024-08-31 Listed $225,000 LERA
• 1997-02-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-08-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1985-07-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,828 · +86.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.