13953 Adelfa Ave · Vero Beach South, FL 34951

$34,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · Manufactured · 145 Days on market

Built 1989 ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in the desirable 55+ Spanish Lakes Fairways community. This home is very close to the park entrance and sits on a quiet street. The home has no carpet and laminate floors throughout. This home is being sold furnished. The home's roof was replaced in 2021, the A/C in 2021, and the vapor barrier in 2021. The kitchen stove is 2024. The home has a lovely lanai, perfect for morning coffee or evening cocktails. Lania has windows, and the room has a working air conditioning unit. Great for the summer months. Lawn care, trash removal and golf included in lot rent. 18-hole golf course, 2 pools, tennis, pickleball, bocce ball, shuffleboard, and much more. Must S

Key facts

• Laminate floors
• 18-hole golf course
• 2 pools

Tags

• LAMINATE FLOORS
• REPLACED ROOF
• WORKING AIR CONDITIONING UNIT
• LOVELY LANAI
• 18-HOLE GOLF COURSE
• 2 POOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a senior community
• Financial info: Pets allowed (restrictions possible)
• HOA & community: Has association; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, fitness center, tennis courts, pickleball courts, bocce, shuffleboard, billiard room, dog park, workshop area, library, community room and golf; Association fees include grounds maintenance, trash and golf

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Carport available
• Security: Security patrol
• Utilities: Three-phase electric service; Public sewer; Cable available; Water available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story; North-facing; Resale
• Construction: Modular construction; Composition/shingle roof
• Exterior features: Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 54.1% vs local median 4.3% in Vero Beach South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#163 in FL, #2,445 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Weatherbee Elementary School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,797 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 672 students, 90% FRL); Dan Mccarty Middle School (math 23% / reading 23%, grade F, #542 of 571 statewide, top 95%, 747 students, 88% FRL); Fort Pierce Westwood Academy The W.E.S.T. Prep Magnet (math 16% / reading 36%, grade F, #494 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,010 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 59% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Lucie average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 294 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $241 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $30,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 54.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 170.91%
• DSCR: 8.60
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $22,050
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13981 Gorrion Ct	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,150 (+10%)	1mo	$48,500	$42	71
14063 Cancun Ave	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,144 (+9%)	24mo	$20,495	$18	50
6539 Spanish Lakes Blvd	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+14%)	3mo	$24,987	$21	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.50×
• Total profit: $83,020
• Equity at exit: $5,204

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 20.09×
• Total profit: $186,562
• Equity at exit: $3,018

Cash invested: $9,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34951

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,067 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$183
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $524/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $1,392

Break-even live

Break-even rent $305

Max offer price $34,900

Occupancy floor 28%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,416	-5% $1,404	+0% $1,392	+5% $1,380	+10% $1,368
Rent	-10% $1,228	-5% $1,310	+0% $1,392	+5% $1,473	+10% $1,555
Rate	-1.0pp $1,409	-0.5pp $1,401	base $1,392	+0.5pp $1,383	+1.0pp $1,374

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,725
• Closing costs: $1,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6765 Spanish Lakes Blvd Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$2,500	$1.83	24d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $34,900 Active 145 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $34,900 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $34,900 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $34,900 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $34,900 Active 139 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $34,900 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $34,900 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $34,900 Active 134 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $34,900 Active 133 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $34,900 Active 132 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $34,900 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $34,900 Active 128 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $34,900 Active 127 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $34,900 Active 126 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $34,900 Active 125 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $34,900 Active 124 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $34,900 Active 123 DOM
18. 2026-04-15
    price $34,900
19. 2026-02-24
    price $39,000
20. 2026-02-10
    price $44,000
21. 2026-01-27
    listed $47,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,805
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,955
• − Property taxes: −$524
• − Insurance: −$174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,984
• − Management: −$1,984
• − Depreciation: −$1,015
• Taxable income: $17,168
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,120
• After-tax cash flow: $12,581/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Vero Beach South

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #163
• US rank: #2445

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,148
• Household income: $63,122
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 140.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.06%
• Current HPI: 343.1376
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-25.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $34,900 Beaches MLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $39,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $44,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $47,000 Beaches MLS