405 W Locust St · Scottsville, KY 42164

$115,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 910 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1977 3,485 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming home that is located in the heart of Scottsville. Conveniently located within minutes from parks, schools, shopping, and more!

Key facts

• 3,485 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1977

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($274/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $88k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $88k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.1% in Scottsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#329 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Allen County (rural): math 29% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #85 of 165 in KY (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 220 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Allen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allen County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,250 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.85%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-17,241
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-13,386
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42164

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Active inventory: 220
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $882 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $280/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$185
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $854

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $88	-5% $55	+0% $23	+5% $-10	+10% $-42
Rent	-10% $-47	-5% $-12	+0% $23	+5% $58	+10% $93
Rate	-1.0pp $81	-0.5pp $52	base $23	+0.5pp $-7	+1.0pp $-37

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $115,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $115,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $115,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   price $115,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $119,900 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,900 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-04-20
    price $119,900 151-char remark

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    Welcome to this charming home that is located in the heart of Scottsville. Conveniently located within minutes from parks, schools, shopping, and more!

12. 2026-04-07
    listed $125,000 Active 151-char remark

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    Welcome to this charming home that is located in the heart of Scottsville. Conveniently located within minutes from parks, schools, shopping, and more!

13. 2025-09-12
    soldstatus $105,000 Closed
14. 2025-07-30
    historical Active Under Contract
15. 2025-07-02
    price $129,900
16. 2025-05-13
    listed $119,900 Active
17. 2021-05-25
    soldstatus $55,000
18. 2009-09-08
    soldstatus $34,000
19. 1997-01-01
    soldstatus $26,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $280 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $989 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$709/yr (+$59/mo · 253.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,590
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$280
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$847
• − Management: −$847
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$1,747
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$419
• After-tax cash flow: $693/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Allen County
• NCES district ID: 2100070
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $38,248
• Composite: 27.54/100
• National rank: #6946
• State rank: #85 of 165 in KY

Livability — Scottsville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #329
• US rank: #15741

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Scottsville, KY
• Population (ZIP): 17,416

Population outlook (Allen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,553 people
• By 2030: 21,947 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 22,574 · +4.7%
• By 2050: 22,739 · +5.5%
• By 2075: 22,607 · +4.9%
• By 2100: 20,793 · -3.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · German/W. Germanic 8% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Allen

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.1) · D 16.0% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.3pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -67.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.1 2020: R+63.5 2016: R+63.3 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.85%
• Current HPI: 278.5576
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+348.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $119,900 RASKMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $125,000 RASKMLS
• 2025-09-12 Sold (MLS) $105,000 RASKMLS
• 2025-07-30 Contingent — RASKMLS
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $129,900 RASKMLS
• 2025-05-13 Listed $119,900 RASKMLS
• 2021-05-25 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2009-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records
• 1997-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $26,750 Public Records