412 SW 2nd St St · Madison, SD
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,342 – $2,492
Heat risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Hot days now (above 97°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 14 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Schools +4.1/10.0
- Livability +3.8/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$89,900
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Investment opportunity in Madison! This four-bedroom, one-bathroom residence offers opportunity for rental income or value-add renovation. The home features convenient main-floor laundry and a functional layout. Located just a short distance from downtown, the property provides easy access to shopping, dining, and local amenities—an appealing option for tenants. Property is being sold AS IS.
Key facts
- Functional layout
- Main-floor laundry
- 8,517 sq ft lot
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $90k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $547 ($7k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
- Recommended offer: $82k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 2.8% in Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 75/100 on livability (#26 in SD, #3,922 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
- Madison Central School District 39-2 (town): math 41% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #36 of 59 in SD (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Market conditions: 130 active listings in the ZIP; 35 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Lake County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1894 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1894 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.60% ✓
- Cap rate
- 13.59%
- Cash-on-cash
- 26.05%
- DSCR
- 2.16
- GRM
- 5.2
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $156,788
- List price
- $89,900
- Delta
- -42.66%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 19.8%
- Equity multiple
- 1.80×
- Total profit
- $20,244
- Equity at exit
- $13,404
- IRR
- 28.0%
- Equity multiple
- 3.48×
- Total profit
- $62,466
- Equity at exit
- $7,773
Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State South Dakota
- 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 57042
- Active inventory
- 130
- Price-to-rent
- 5.2×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,442 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$471
- Tax from tax record
- −$84 /mo · $1,009/yr
- Insurance
- −$37
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$303
- Net cashflow
- $547
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $22,475
- Closing costs
- $2,697
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Listing history 15 events
-
2026-06-18days on market $89,900 Active 112 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $89,900 Active 111 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $89,900 Active 110 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $89,900 Active 109 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $89,900 Active 107 DOM
-
2026-06-12days on market $89,900 Active 106 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $89,900 Active 103 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $89,900 Active 102 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $89,900 Active 101 DOM
-
2026-06-05pricedays on market $89,900 Active 99 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $99,900 Active 97 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $99,900 Active 96 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $99,900 Active 95 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $99,900 Active 94 DOM
-
2026-02-25$99,900 Active 400-char remark
Show marketing remark (400 chars)
Investment opportunity in Madison! This four-bedroom, one-bathroom residence offers opportunity for rental income or value-add renovation. The home features convenient main-floor laundry and a functional layout. Located just a short distance from downtown, the property provides easy access to shopping, dining, and local amenities—an appealing option for tenants. Property is being sold AS IS.
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast SD · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $1,009 · $84/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $1,178 · $98/mo
- Expected delta
- +$169/yr (+$14/mo · 16.8%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $17,308
- − Mortgage interest
- −$5,036
- − Property taxes
- −$1,009
- − Insurance
- −$450
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,385
- − Management
- −$1,385
- − Depreciation
- −$2,615
- Taxable income
- $5,430
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,303
- After-tax cash flow
- $5,255/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Madison Central School District 39-2
- NCES district ID
- 4639600
- Math proficiency
- 41% ▼ -8.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 55% ▼ -3.00%
- Median HH income
- $47,304
- Composite
- 40.82/100
- National rank
- #3635
- State rank
- #36 of 59 in SD
Livability — Madison
- Score
- 75/100
- State rank
- #26
- US rank
- #3922
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Madison, SD
- Population (ZIP)
- 7,900
Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 15,062 people
- By 2030
- 16,261 · +8.0%
- By 2040
- 18,290 · +21.4%
- By 2050
- 19,881 · +32.0%
- By 2075
- 23,907 · +58.7%
- By 2100
- 29,664 · +96.9%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (92%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 92% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
- Common ancestry
- Portuguese 20% Iranian 3% Scottish 2%
- Foreign-born
- 1% · China
- Languages at home
- 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Lake
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+31.2) · D 33.5% · R 64.7% · Other 1.9%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -31.8pp toward R · 2008: 0.7pp · 2024: -31.2pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+31.2 2020: R+27.5 2016: R+25.4 2012: R+11.1 2008: D+0.7
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -111.13%
- Current HPI
- 200.0944
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 0.70%
- F500 in state
- 2
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SD)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 1 | $1B |
|
||
Price history
1 event — show timeline
- 2026-02-25 Listed $99,900 REALTOR® Association of the Sioux Empire
Property tax history
+5.2%/yrLatest (2025): $1,009 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…