6850 Downing Rd Spc 71 · Central Point, OR 97502

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Land public records · 108 Days on market

Built 2003 Fair condition $61/sqft · 13% above area Est $75k · 13% over ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +1.8/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great Opportunity at a great PRICE! Well-kept 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in an all-ages park with a layout that truly maximizes space. Spacious kitchen with pantry and a huge primary bathroom. Enjoy the covered porch, Large storage shed, and covered parking for two. Move-in ready! All appliances included. Space rent will be $850 a month includes water and sewer.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Covered parking
• Storage shed

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• STORAGE SHED
• COVERED PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $85k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.3% vs local median 2.9% in Central Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 90/100 on livability (#3 in OR, #92 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Central Point SD 6 (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #42 of 58 in OR (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sams Valley Elementary School (math 15% / reading 34%, grade F, #309 of 412 statewide, top 77%, 247 students, 66% FRL); Hanby Middle School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #86 of 128 statewide, top 72%, 375 students, 75% FRL); Crater School of Business Innovation And Science (math 44% / reading 84%, grade B-, #16 of 143 statewide, top 12%, 496 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 270 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,350 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.21%
• DSCR: 3.55
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $75,401
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: 12.73%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6850 Downing Rd Spc 44	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	7mo	$73,500	$51	90
6850 Downing Rd Spc 65A	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-23%)	4mo	$77,000	$71	72
6554 Downing Rd	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+3%)	10mo	$350,000	$243	71
6850 Downing Rd #73	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,215 (-14%)	11mo	$75,000	$62	68
614 W Gregory Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,207 (-14%)	9mo	$360,000	$298	56
549 Wilson Rd	1.36mi	3/2.5	1,440 (+3%)	4mo	$555,000	$385	55
6199 Wilson Ln	1.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (0%)	8mo	$283,000	$202	53
229 Gibbon Rd	0.76mi	3/2.0	1,448 (+3%)	14mo	$389,000	$269	48
6362 Harold Rd	0.58mi	3/3.0	1,603 (+14%)	13mo	$315,000	$197	34
5559 Table Rock Rd	1.43mi	3/2.0	1,632 (+16%)	10mo	$540,000	$331	31
1641 Gibbon Rd	1.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-20%)	13mo	$334,000	$298	24
7426 Table Rock Ter	1.11mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (-20%)	9mo	$320,000	$286	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.58×
• Total profit: $61,381
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.67×
• Total profit: $158,678
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97502

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 270
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,125 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $760/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $1,135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $689

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,183	-5% $1,159	+0% $1,135	+5% $1,111	+10% $1,087
Rent	-10% $967	-5% $1,051	+0% $1,135	+5% $1,219	+10% $1,303
Rate	-1.0pp $1,177	-0.5pp $1,156	base $1,135	+0.5pp $1,113	+1.0pp $1,090

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
225 Wilson Rd Apt B Central Point, OR	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,850	$1.27	93d	1	1.41mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $850
• HOA & community: CC&Rs applyCommunity playground

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carportDriveway
• Security: Smoke detectorsCarbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity connectedCable connectedPhone connected
• Home design: Mobile home (double wide) located in-parkOne storyMay remain in parkOn leased land
• Construction: Built in 2003Composition roofMetal skirtingUnknown foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl window framesStorage structurePaved road accessPlayground (community)

Interior

• Kitchen: CooktopOvenMicrowaveDishwasherRefrigeratorBreakfast bar and pantry
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms, including a primary bedroom
• Flooring: CarpetLaminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pumpCentral air
• Interior features: Breakfast barCeiling fansFiberglass stall showerLinen closetPantryShower/tub comboSoaking tubSolar tubesAccessible approach with rampGrip-accessible features
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryerWater heater

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $85,000 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $85,000 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $85,000 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $85,000 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $85,000 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $85,000 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $85,000 Active 98 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $85,000 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $85,000 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $85,000 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $85,000 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    status $85,000 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-07-11
    status $85,000 Pending 90 DOM
16. 2026-07-10
    days on market $85,000 Active 90 DOM
17. 2026-07-09
    days on market $85,000 Active 89 DOM
18. 2026-07-08
    statusdays on market $85,000 Active 88 DOM
19. 2026-06-30
    status $85,000 Pending 87 DOM
20. 2026-06-29
    days on market $85,000 Active 87 DOM
21. 2026-06-28
    days on market $85,000 Active 86 DOM
22. 2026-06-28
    days on market $85,000 Active 85 DOM
23. 2026-06-27
    remarks 360-char remark
24. 2026-06-27
    pricedays on market $85,000 Active 84 DOM
25. 2026-06-25
    days on market $99,000 Active 82 DOM
26. 2026-06-23
    days on market $99,000 Active 80 DOM
27. 2026-06-22
    days on market $99,000 Active 79 DOM
28. 2026-06-19
    days on market $99,000 Active 77 DOM
29. 2026-06-18
    days on market $99,000 Active 76 DOM
30. 2026-06-17
    days on market $99,000 Active 75 DOM
31. 2026-06-16
    days on market $99,000 Active 74 DOM
32. 2026-06-15
    days on market $99,000 Active 73 DOM
33. 2026-06-14
    days on market $99,000 Active 71 DOM
34. 2026-06-13
    days on market $99,000 Active 70 DOM
35. 2026-06-10
    days on market $99,000 Active 68 DOM
36. 2026-06-09
    days on market $99,000 Active 67 DOM
37. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,000 Active 66 DOM
38. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $99,000 Active 65 DOM
39. 2026-06-02
    days on market $104,000 Active 60 DOM
40. 2026-06-01
    days on market $104,000 Active 59 DOM
41. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,000 Active 58 DOM
42. 2026-05-30
    days on market $104,000 Active 57 DOM
43. 2026-05-06
    price $104,000 305-char remark
44. 2026-04-03
    listed $110,000 Active 305-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $760 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $824 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$65/yr (+$5/mo · 8.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥100°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,506
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$760
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,040
• − Management: −$2,040
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $13,006
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,121
• After-tax cash flow: $10,494/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $35,100–$63,180 screening

This home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, including painting and landscaping, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major landscaping — overgrown vegetation
• Major paint — paint appears faded

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 35/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Sams Valley Elementary School F OR #309/412 Nat'l #30,036/41,679 Middle Hanby Middle School F OR #86/128 Nat'l #9,020/14,009 High Crater Renaissance Academy D OR #50/143 Nat'l #5,677/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Point SD 6
• NCES district ID: 4102940
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $49,736
• Composite: 26.09/100
• National rank: #7290
• State rank: #42 of 58 in OR

A Composite livability gradescore 90/100

Livability — Central Point

• Score: 90/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #92

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jackson County · 234,433 people
• City population: 29,067
• Metro: Medford, OR
• Population (ZIP): 29,067
• Household income: $83,488
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -446.66%
• Current HPI: 252.2725
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.33%
• Metro: Medford, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $850
• HOA & community: CC&Rs applyCommunity playground

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carportDriveway
• Security: Smoke detectorsCarbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity connectedCable connectedPhone connected
• Home design: Mobile home (double wide) located in-parkOne storyMay remain in parkOn leased land
• Construction: Built in 2003Composition roofMetal skirtingUnknown foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl window framesStorage structurePaved road accessPlayground (community)

Interior

• Kitchen: CooktopOvenMicrowaveDishwasherRefrigeratorBreakfast bar and pantry
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms, including a primary bedroom
• Flooring: CarpetLaminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pumpCentral air
• Interior features: Breakfast barCeiling fansFiberglass stall showerLinen closetPantryShower/tub comboSoaking tubSolar tubesAccessible approach with rampGrip-accessible features
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryerWater heater

Price history

-22.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-10 Pending — MLSCO
• 2026-07-08 Relisted — MLSCO
• 2026-06-29 Pending — MLSCO
• 2026-06-26 Price Changed $85,000 MLSCO
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $99,000 MLSCO
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $104,000 MLSCO
• 2026-04-03 Listed $110,000 MLSCO

Property tax history

+11.1%/yr

Latest (2022): $760 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.