2129 Rio Grande Canyon Loop · Poinciana, FL 34759

$334,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,828 sqft · Land · 67 Days on market

Built 2025 0.37 ac lot $81/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the potential of this residential lot, perfectly situated for your dream home in the rapidly expanding Poinciana community. This lot property is primed for construction, offering you a blank canvas to bring your vision to life. This lot is being offered in As Is condition, forming part of a remarkable 30-lot portfolio that the seller is eager to share. Whether you're an individual buyer envisioning your dream home or an investor ready to contribute to the growth of Poinciana, this opportunity is tailor-made for you. The seller welcomes the possibility of selling individual lots, or in convenient bundles of 5, 10, 15, 20, or the entire 30-lot package. This flexibility ensures that you can tailor your investment to suit your preferences and goals. Whether you're a builder with a vision or an investor ready to seize this golden opportunity, don't miss out! Contact us today for additional information and take the first step towards building a brighter future in Poinciana. Poinciana features great amenities like a community pool, club house, sports fields, recreation center, fitness trails, dog parks, parks, and lakes to enjoy fishing with family and friends.

Key facts

• Spacious island
• Quartz countertops
• Open layout

Tags

• ONE STORY CALI FLOORPLAN
• OPEN LAYOUT
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK IN PANTRY
• SPACIOUS ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $335k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-772 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (33.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (33.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (33.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $335k implies a 1575% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,432 (33.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.27%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-85,466
• Equity at exit: $73,236

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.42×
• Total profit: $-133,107
• Equity at exit: $70,579

Cash invested: $93,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,214 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,757
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$419 /mo · $5,025/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$81
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-772

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,191

Max offer price $223,290

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,748
• Closing costs: $10,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1174 N Platte Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	2308	$2,400	$1.04	14d	1	0.07mi
650 Hudson Valley Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,734	$1.10	3d	1	0.19mi
1019 N Platte Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,595	$1.09	23d	1	0.21mi
1388 N Platte Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1830	$1,850	$1.01	10d	1	0.24mi
994 James Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,825	$1.10	23d	1	0.30mi
1142 Nelson Meadow Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,700	$1.32	23d	1	0.31mi
1144 Nelson Meadow Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,795	$1.39	23d	1	0.32mi
1160 Nelson Meadow Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	2168	$4,500	$2.08	23d	1	0.36mi
1167 Nelson Meadow Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1868	$1,875	$1.00	14d	1	0.37mi
1157 Hudson Harbor Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1626	$1,850	$1.14	23d	1	0.38mi
733 James Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	2040	$2,350	$1.15	23d	1	0.47mi
802 James Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,090	$1.25	11d	1	0.53mi
430 Big Sioux Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	2430	$2,000	$0.82	23d	1	0.64mi
642 Desmoines Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1826	$1,975	$1.08	3d	1	0.65mi
423 Churchill Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1711	$1,975	$1.15	23d	1	0.75mi
101 Big Black Dr Kissimmee, FL	5.0	3.0	2530	$2,500	$0.99	23d	1	0.76mi
377 Cimarron Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1999	$1,950	$0.98	11d	1	0.78mi
935 Cumberland Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,599	$1.27	14d	1	0.89mi
217 Cimarron Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,085	$1.25	19d	1	0.90mi
157 Cimarron Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	2097	$2,000	$0.95	3d	1	0.91mi
943 Cumberland Dr Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,695	$1.32	23d	1	0.91mi
245 Cimarron Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$2,125	$1.71	23d	1	0.92mi
237 Cimarron Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,950	$1.25	23d	1	0.94mi
1130 Chervil Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,575	$1.05	23d	1	1.14mi
337 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,980	$1.19	14d	1	1.15mi
2004 Red Fox Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0	2186	$2,399	$1.10	2d	10	1.15mi
3181 Viceroy Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1610	$1,900	$1.18	3d	1	1.16mi
1110 Chervil Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	2110	$1,575	$0.75	23d	1	1.16mi
1282 Clove Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1906	$1,600	$0.84	3d	1	1.17mi
344 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,825	$1.09	3d	1	1.17mi
3630 Walking Stick Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1999	$2,150	$1.08	23d	1	1.18mi
325 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,995	$1.24	3d	1	1.22mi
2129 Hibiscus Pl Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1765	$2,100	$1.19	3d	1	1.26mi
452 Cinnamon Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1793	$2,000	$1.12	23d	1	1.35mi
404 Cinnamon Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,775	$1.34	14d	1	1.36mi
316 Fern Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,775	$1.11	3d	1	1.36mi
309 Fern Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1767	$2,150	$1.22	3d	1	1.41mi
263 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,750	$1.09	14d	1	1.41mi
439 Caraway Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1791	$1,800	$1.01	3d	1	1.42mi
260 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,065	$1.24	3d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $81 · $972/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-16
   price $334,990
3. 2026-02-06
   listed $339,990 Active
4. 2025-10-23
   soldstatus $20,000 Closed 1181-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1181 chars)

   Discover the potential of this residential lot, perfectly situated for your dream home in the rapidly expanding Poinciana community. This lot property is primed for construction, offering you a blank canvas to bring your vision to life. This lot is being offered in As Is condition, forming part of a remarkable 30-lot portfolio that the seller is eager to share. Whether you're an individual buyer envisioning your dream home or an investor ready to contribute to the growth of Poinciana, this opportunity is tailor-made for you. The seller welcomes the possibility of selling individual lots, or in convenient bundles of 5, 10, 15, 20, or the entire 30-lot package. This flexibility ensures that you can tailor your investment to suit your preferences and goals. Whether you're a builder with a vision or an investor ready to seize this golden opportunity, don't miss out! Contact us today for additional information and take the first step towards building a brighter future in Poinciana. Poinciana features great amenities like a community pool, club house, sports fields, recreation center, fitness trails, dog parks, parks, and lakes to enjoy fishing with family and friends.

5. 2025-10-23
   soldstatus $205,640

   Show marketing remark (1181 chars)

   Discover the potential of this residential lot, perfectly situated for your dream home in the rapidly expanding Poinciana community. This lot property is primed for construction, offering you a blank canvas to bring your vision to life. This lot is being offered in As Is condition, forming part of a remarkable 30-lot portfolio that the seller is eager to share. Whether you're an individual buyer envisioning your dream home or an investor ready to contribute to the growth of Poinciana, this opportunity is tailor-made for you. The seller welcomes the possibility of selling individual lots, or in convenient bundles of 5, 10, 15, 20, or the entire 30-lot package. This flexibility ensures that you can tailor your investment to suit your preferences and goals. Whether you're a builder with a vision or an investor ready to seize this golden opportunity, don't miss out! Contact us today for additional information and take the first step towards building a brighter future in Poinciana. Poinciana features great amenities like a community pool, club house, sports fields, recreation center, fitness trails, dog parks, parks, and lakes to enjoy fishing with family and friends.

6. 2024-03-16
   status Pending 1181-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1181 chars)

   Discover the potential of this residential lot, perfectly situated for your dream home in the rapidly expanding Poinciana community. This lot property is primed for construction, offering you a blank canvas to bring your vision to life. This lot is being offered in As Is condition, forming part of a remarkable 30-lot portfolio that the seller is eager to share. Whether you're an individual buyer envisioning your dream home or an investor ready to contribute to the growth of Poinciana, this opportunity is tailor-made for you. The seller welcomes the possibility of selling individual lots, or in convenient bundles of 5, 10, 15, 20, or the entire 30-lot package. This flexibility ensures that you can tailor your investment to suit your preferences and goals. Whether you're a builder with a vision or an investor ready to seize this golden opportunity, don't miss out! Contact us today for additional information and take the first step towards building a brighter future in Poinciana. Poinciana features great amenities like a community pool, club house, sports fields, recreation center, fitness trails, dog parks, parks, and lakes to enjoy fishing with family and friends.

7. 2024-01-18
   listed $20,000 Active 1181-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1181 chars)

   Discover the potential of this residential lot, perfectly situated for your dream home in the rapidly expanding Poinciana community. This lot property is primed for construction, offering you a blank canvas to bring your vision to life. This lot is being offered in As Is condition, forming part of a remarkable 30-lot portfolio that the seller is eager to share. Whether you're an individual buyer envisioning your dream home or an investor ready to contribute to the growth of Poinciana, this opportunity is tailor-made for you. The seller welcomes the possibility of selling individual lots, or in convenient bundles of 5, 10, 15, 20, or the entire 30-lot package. This flexibility ensures that you can tailor your investment to suit your preferences and goals. Whether you're a builder with a vision or an investor ready to seize this golden opportunity, don't miss out! Contact us today for additional information and take the first step towards building a brighter future in Poinciana. Poinciana features great amenities like a community pool, club house, sports fields, recreation center, fitness trails, dog parks, parks, and lakes to enjoy fishing with family and friends.

8. 2021-04-28
   soldstatus $289,900
9. 2020-12-31
   soldstatus $132,000
10. 2020-02-10
    soldstatus $52,000
11. 1996-08-19
    soldstatus $15,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,572
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,765
• − Property taxes: −$5,025
• − Insurance: −$3,177
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,126
• − Management: −$2,126
• − HOA: −$972
• − Depreciation: −$9,745
• Taxable loss: −$15,364
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,687
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,576/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2103.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $334,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Listed $339,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-23 Sold (Public Records) $205,640 Public Records
• 2025-10-23 Sold (MLS) $20,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-18 Listed $20,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $289,900 Public Records
• 2020-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $132,000 Public Records
• 2020-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 1996-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $15,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+25.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $580 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.