4143 Yosemite Blvd Unit A27 · Empire, CA 95357

$55,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 550 sqft · Manufactured · 23 Days on market

Built 1963 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great first time home buyer opportunity/ investor opportunity possible 3rd bedroom.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1963
• Listed 23 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 4143 Yosemite Blvd Unit A27, Modesto, CA 95357; Directions: Claus Rd to Yosemite Blvd
• Financial info: Land lease: No (listed land lease amount present)
• HOA & community: No association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Utilities: Electric: other; Private sewer; Public water
• Home design: Manufactured in-park single-wide; Built in 1963; Nashua manufacture; Wood skirting
• Construction: Wood skirting; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Composition roof; No notable lot features

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with dining space in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with tub and shower over
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Living room with flexible features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry - other configuration

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $54k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,013 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Empire Union Elementary (suburban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #398 of 517 in CA (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $54,175 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 86.57%
• DSCR: 4.85
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 87.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.02×
• Total profit: $61,878
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 90.2%
• Equity multiple: 10.42×
• Total profit: $145,116
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95357

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,888 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $1,111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $481

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
109 Lincoln Ave Modesto, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	898	$1,888	$2.10	13d	11	1.16mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $55,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $55,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $55,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $55,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $55,000 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,650
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,812
• − Management: −$1,812
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $13,245
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,179
• After-tax cash flow: $10,154/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires significant exterior and interior repairs, making it a moderate renovation project. Upgrading the exterior and interior will significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major roof — Aged appearance
• Major flooring — Likely worn and in need of replacement
• Major interior walls/paint — Likely outdated and in need of fresh paint

Value-add opportunities

• Both exterior siding and roof replacement — Improves curb appeal and structural integrity
• Both flooring replacement — Enhances living space and rental appeal
• Both interior paint and updates — Freshens the interior and makes the home more attractive

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Aged appearance	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Likely worn and in need of replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Likely outdated and in need of fresh paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both exterior siding and roof replacement — Improves curb appeal and structural integrity ↑
• Both flooring replacement — Enhances living space and rental appeal ↑
• Both interior paint and updates — Freshens the interior and makes the home more attractive ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Empire Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0612690
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $49,808
• Composite: 22.05/100
• National rank: #8193
• State rank: #398 of 517 in CA

Livability — Empire

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #24920

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Empire, CA
• Population (ZIP): 14,283

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 37% Two or more races 16% Black 6% Asian 5% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 31% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.94%
• Current HPI: 283.9315
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B