74 Castle Frk · Paintsville, KY 41232

$55,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1990 0.35 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Convenience and affordability all in one. Nice 2 bedroom 2 bathroom home located less than 1/4 of a mile from US 23. This home is move in ready and won't last long. Call today to schedule a personal tour.

Key facts

• 0.35 acre lot
• Built 1990
• Listed 39 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($968 rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 3.4% in Paintsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#117 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Johnson County (rural): math 23% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #103 of 165 in KY (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Johnson Central High School (math 20% / reading 25%, grade F, #200 of 254 statewide, top 79%, 955 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $55k implies a 293% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $53,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.99%
• DSCR: 2.33
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $26,957
• Equity at exit: $24,730

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.39×
• Total profit: $67,634
• Equity at exit: $38,112

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41232

• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $968 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$203
• Net cashflow: $318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $565

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $356	-5% $337	+0% $318	+5% $299	+10% $280
Rent	-10% $242	-5% $280	+0% $318	+5% $357	+10% $395
Rate	-1.0pp $346	-0.5pp $332	base $318	+0.5pp $304	+1.0pp $290

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $55,000 Pending 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $55,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $55,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $55,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    status Pending
16. 2026-04-09
    listed $55,000 Active
17. 1998-07-01
    soldstatus $14,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,619
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$1,072
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$930
• − Management: −$930
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $3,182
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$764
• After-tax cash flow: $3,057/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnson County
• NCES district ID: 2103060
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -23.00%
• Median HH income: $34,508
• Composite: 25.49/100
• National rank: #7441
• State rank: #103 of 165 in KY

Livability — Paintsville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #117
• US rank: #5546

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,495
• Population (ZIP): 334

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,330 people
• By 2030: 21,570 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 19,849 · -11.1%
• By 2050: 18,204 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 14,588 · -34.7%
• By 2100: 11,127 · -50.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 18%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.7) · D 14.0% · R 84.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.1pp toward R · 2008: -41.6pp · 2024: -70.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.7 2020: R+67.1 2016: R+71.0 2012: R+59.5 2008: R+41.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+292.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — EKAR
• 2026-04-09 Listed $55,000 EKAR
• 1998-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-53.0%/yr

Latest (2017): $23 · -90.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.