105 Cliff Dr · Hemlock Farms, PA 18428

$399,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,701 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1980 1.24 ac lot Est $342k · 17% over $250/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

70 FEET OF POND FRONTAGE!! Escape to the beauty of the Poconos at 105 Cliff Drive in Hawley, PA -- a charming retreat offering privacy, natural surroundings, and modern upgrades throughout. Perfectly positioned with 70 feet of private pond frontage, this home delivers peaceful views and a relaxing atmosphere that's hard to find. Inside, natural light pours throughout the home, highlighting the beautiful cathedral ceilings and hardwood floors and creating a bright, inviting feel from room to room. The updated kitchen features granite countertops, offering both style and functionality, while the propane fireplace adds warmth and cozy charm to the living space. The comfortable layout provides

Key facts

• New siding
• Community amenities
• Pond frontage

Tags

• POND FRONTAGE
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• TREX DECK
• NEW SIDING
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Hemlock Farms); Annual association fee: $2,995 (also listed as a one-time $2,995 fee); Approximate monthly equivalent: $249.58; Association covers security, trash, and water; Community amenities include: pool (indoor and outdoor), tennis and basketball courts, golf course access, clubhouse, fitness center, playground, parks, racquetball, sauna, beach access/rights, trash service, dog park

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Security: 24-hour security; Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation; Built area above grade: 1,701
• Exterior features: Screened side porch; Sliding doors; Pond on the property; Front yard; Landscaped grounds; Community lake view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Stainless steel appliances; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric and propane heating; Ceiling fan(s); Wall/window unit(s)
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Skylight(s); Living room fireplace (propane)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $377k (5.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $377k (5.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#884 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 371 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $112k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($393k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $242k; list at $399k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $377,161 (5.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.78%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $341,901
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
119 Ridgeway Dr	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,662 (-2%)	1mo	$549,000	$330	80
118 Ledgeway Ln	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,716 (+1%)	8mo	$399,999	$233	80
105 Longridge Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,692 (-0%)	3mo	$340,000	$201	79
802 Rimrock Ct Unit 802 Rimrock Lane, Hawley, PA 18428	0.27mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,728 (+2%)	1mo	$345,000	$200	77
120 Ridgeway Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,641 (-4%)	10mo	$280,000	$171	75
801 Saddlebrook Spur Spur	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+2%)	4mo	$550,500	$319	59
109 Bluestone Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-12%)	3mo	$255,000	$170	58
809 Boulder Ct	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-10%)	3mo	$620,000	$404	58
106 Fetlock Dr	0.69mi	3/3.0	1,700 (-0%)	7mo	$255,000	$150	58
800 Osprey Ct	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-8%)	9mo	$310,000	$198	57
803 Fetlock Ct	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,837 (+8%)	7mo	$290,000	$158	50
809 Widgeon Ct	0.64mi	3/3.0	1,911 (+12%)	6mo	$730,000	$382	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $227,954
• Equity at exit: $359,451

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.94×
• Total profit: $663,167
• Equity at exit: $775,169

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 371
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,772 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$305 /mo · $3,662/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$792
• Net cashflow: $166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,562

Max offer price $399,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Corral Ln Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	2150	$4,000	$1.86	3d	1	0.69mi
101 Pommel Dr Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	1691	$4,400	$2.60	1d	1	0.75mi
811 Hickory Ct Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	1d	1	0.89mi
131 Surrey Dr Hawley, PA	4.0	2.0	1952	$2,650	$1.36	43d	1	0.91mi
313 Forest Dr Blooming Grove, PA	3.0	2.0	1200	$5,000	$4.17	1d	1	0.96mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $399,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-21
    listed $399,000 Active
16. 2025-06-05
    listed $469,000 Active
17. 2005-09-23
    soldstatus $242,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,662 · $305/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,983 · $415/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,321/yr (+$110/mo · 36.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,259
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$3,662
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,621
• − Management: −$3,621
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$4,597
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,103
• After-tax cash flow: $3,092/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hemlock Farms

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #884
• US rank: #9421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hemlock Farms, PA
• Population (ZIP): 12,446

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+64.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $399,000 PWMLS
• 2025-06-05 Listed $469,000 PWMLS
• 2005-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $242,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,662 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.