6954 Circle Cross Rd · Odessa, TX 79765

$275,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,574 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 2015 6,534 sqft lot $175/sqft · at area comps Est $272k · at est. ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Vacant and ready for its next owner! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home is located in a growing subdivision with HOA in place. It features a spacious layout and a large backyard with plenty of room for outdoor living, entertaining, or future possibilities. Don't miss the opportunity to make this one yours—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2015

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $391 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $275k).
• Recommended offer: $267k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D, schools F.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 431 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $266,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.09%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,219
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: 1.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-26,526
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-17,842
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79765

• Home prices YoY: -28.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 431
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,848 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$302 /mo · $3,626/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$598
• Net cashflow: $391

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,353

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6900 Cross B Rd Odessa, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1108	$2,875	$2.59	13d	12	0.24mi
6928 Rocking L Ranch Rd Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,795	$1.52	21d	1	0.32mi
25 Purple Sage Ranch Cir Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1707	$2,700	$1.58	21d	1	0.34mi
6918 Brooks Ranch Rd Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1707	$2,800	$1.64	21d	1	0.47mi
6919 Kate Reed Dr Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1574	$2,700	$1.72	44d	1	0.49mi
7315 W Pile Ranch Rd Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1775	$2,600	$1.46	13d	1	0.60mi
7320 Fossell Ranch Rd Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1707	$2,600	$1.52	21d	1	0.63mi
7335 Horton Ranch Rd Odessa, TX	3.0	2.5	2010	$3,500	$1.74	44d	1	0.76mi
6909 Boss Ranch Rd Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$875	$0.49	44d	1	0.78mi
7507 Orion Rd Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,700	$1.47	21d	1	1.01mi
7526 Horton Ranch Rd Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,700	$1.48	21d	1	1.08mi
7526 Horton Ranch Rd Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,600	$1.41	13d	1	1.08mi
7108 Red Canyon Rd Odessa, TX	5.0	2.0	2009	$3,500	$1.74	44d	1	1.10mi
7539 Orion Rd Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1782	$2,800	$1.57	13d	1	1.13mi
7541 Orion Rd Gardendale, TX	4.0	2.0	1574	$2,495	$1.59	13d	1	1.14mi
7616 Orange Blossom Rd Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,650	$1.73	44d	1	1.25mi
7625 Purple Vitex Rd Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1735	$2,700	$1.56	44d	1	1.31mi
7625 Purple Vitex Rd Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1735	$2,700	$1.56	21d	1	1.31mi
7710 Purple Vitex Rd Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$3,950	$2.15	44d	1	1.36mi
7300 White Cliff Rd Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1729	$2,700	$1.56	13d	1	1.38mi
7705 Brown Bark Rd Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$3,500	$2.28	44d	1	1.39mi
7710 Brown Bark Rd Odessa, TX	5.0	2.0	1998	$4,200	$2.10	21d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-22
   price $275,000 334-char remark

   Show marketing remark (334 chars)

   Vacant and ready for its next owner! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home is located in a growing subdivision with HOA in place. It features a spacious layout and a large backyard with plenty of room for outdoor living, entertaining, or future possibilities. Don't miss the opportunity to make this one yours—schedule your showing today!

2. 2026-04-10
   listed $299,000 Active 334-char remark

   Show marketing remark (334 chars)

   Vacant and ready for its next owner! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home is located in a growing subdivision with HOA in place. It features a spacious layout and a large backyard with plenty of room for outdoor living, entertaining, or future possibilities. Don't miss the opportunity to make this one yours—schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,626 · $302/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,032 · $419/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,407/yr (+$117/mo · 38.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,174
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$3,626
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,734
• − Management: −$2,734
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable income: $301
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$72
• After-tax cash flow: $4,619/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, TX
• County: Ector County · 131,169 people
• City population: 131,169
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,904
• Household income: $104,965
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 884.0

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 41% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 31% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.68%
• Current HPI: 173.4252
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $275,000 ODMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $299,000 ODMLS

Property tax history

+21.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,626 · -15.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.