2852 Hedgerow Pl · Bryans Road, MD 20616

$359,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,700 sqft · Townhouse public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2014 1,699 sqft lot $212/sqft · 13% below area Est $413k · 13% under $93/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Everything Included - Granite, stainless steel appliances, hardwood floors, kitchen island, spacious bedrooms, and deck. Don't miss your oppty to own this meticulous brick-front townhome with room for all. You'll enjoy the familyroom on the first level and the oversized livingroom upstairs. Imagine star glazing on the deck w/ a glass of wine. Second flr laundry and 2 car garage with extra storage.

Key facts

• $93 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2014

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property manager present
• Financial info: Front foot fee $400 paid annually
• HOA & community: HOA fee $280 quarterly

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with rear entry; Garage door opener; Two garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric hot water
• Home design: Interior townhouse / rowhouse; Three levels; Fee simple ownership; Built by Lennar; Property condition: Very good
• Construction: Combination and brick construction; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: No tidal water; Above-grade and below-grade structures noted

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Gas range / oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Wood floors
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (upper levels); One half bathroom (upper level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Upgraded countertops; Kitchen island; Kitchen table space / eat-in area; Master bathroom; Wood floors; Tub with shower; Walk-in shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unit (upper floor)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-237 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $318k (11.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $290k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $290k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.2% in Bryans Road — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#315 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, cost of living D+, schools D.
• Charles County Public Schools (suburban): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #14 of 24 in MD (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,542 units permitted in Charles County in 2024 (516 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Charles County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $260k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $289,650 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.83%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $412,522
• List price: $359,900
• Delta: -12.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2872 Cameo Pl	0.25mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,725 (+2%)	10mo	$390,000	$226	72
6336-S S Lake Ct #6336	0.49mi	3/3.0	1,757 (+3%)	3mo	$365,000	$208	67
5829 Monmouth Ct	0.37mi	3/3.5	1,814 (+7%)	2mo	$374,000	$206	66
6846 Matthews Rd	0.24mi	3/3.0	1,943 (+14%)	1mo	$424,990	$219	62
6826 Matthews Rd	0.20mi	3/3.0	1,943 (+14%)	4mo	$404,990	$208	62
6842 Matthews Rd	0.23mi	3/3.0	1,943 (+14%)	3mo	$455,304	$234	61
6822 Matthews Rd	0.19mi	3/3.0	1,943 (+14%)	5mo	$440,000	$226	61
6854 Matthews Rd	0.25mi	3/3.0	1,943 (+14%)	2mo	$455,622	$234	61
2647 Longbow Ct	0.30mi	3/3.5	1,880 (+11%)	4mo	$340,000	$181	61
6836 Matthews Rd	0.22mi	3/3.0	1,950 (+15%)	4mo	$415,000	$213	60
2865 Waters Edge Ct	0.49mi	3/3.0	1,880 (+11%)	5mo	$370,000	$197	54
2817 Waters Edge Ct	0.48mi	3/3.0	1,888 (+11%)	10mo	$380,625	$202	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-73,362
• Equity at exit: $53,662

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-83,066
• Equity at exit: $31,118

Cash invested: $100,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20616

• Home prices YoY: -6.5%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,896 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,887
• Tax from tax record: −$395 /mo · $4,742/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$93
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$608
• Net cashflow: $-237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,197

Max offer price $317,990

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-34	-5% $-135	+0% $-237	+5% $-339	+10% $-441
Rent	-10% $-466	-5% $-352	+0% $-237	+5% $-123	+10% $-8
Rate	-1.0pp $-56	-0.5pp $-146	base $-237	+0.5pp $-331	+1.0pp $-425

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,975
• Closing costs: $10,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2864 Hedgerow Pl Bryans Road, MD	4.0	4.0	2000	$2,700	$1.35	25d	1	0.03mi
2866 Hedgerow Pl Bryans Road, MD	3.0	2.5	2020	$3,000	$1.49	5d	1	0.03mi
2941 Sedgemore Pl Bryans Road, MD	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,850	$1.43	45d	1	0.06mi
6743 Amherst Rd Bryans Road, MD	4.0	2.0	1714	$2,700	$1.58	21d	1	0.21mi
6960 Farragut Dr Bryans Road, MD	3.0	2.5	2100	$2,950	$1.40	45d	1	0.26mi
2802 Bridgewater Dr Bryans Road, MD	3.0	4.0	2100	$3,800	$1.81	21d	1	0.40mi
2060 Red Spruce Ct Bryans Road, MD	4.0	2.0	1612	$2,800	$1.74	25d	1	1.25mi
7039 Heather Dr Bryans Road, MD	4.0	3.0	2220	$3,300	$1.49	45d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $93 · $1,116/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $359,900 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-05-16
   historical Active Under Contract 1043-char remark
3. 2026-05-12
   status Active 1043-char remark
4. 2026-05-01
   historical 1043-char remark
5. 2026-05-01
   listed $359,900 Active 1043-char remark
6. 2026-04-28
   historical $359,900 1043-char remark
7. 2016-05-16
   soldstatus $260,000
8. 2016-04-14
   historical 400-char remark

   Show marketing remark (400 chars)

   Everything Included - Granite, stainless steel appliances, hardwood floors, kitchen island, spacious bedrooms, and deck. Don't miss your oppty to own this meticulous brick-front townhome with room for all. You'll enjoy the familyroom on the first level and the oversized livingroom upstairs. Imagine star glazing on the deck w/ a glass of wine. Second flr laundry and 2 car garage with extra storage.

9. 2016-04-08
   soldstatus $260,000 Sold 400-char remark

   Show marketing remark (400 chars)

   Everything Included - Granite, stainless steel appliances, hardwood floors, kitchen island, spacious bedrooms, and deck. Don't miss your oppty to own this meticulous brick-front townhome with room for all. You'll enjoy the familyroom on the first level and the oversized livingroom upstairs. Imagine star glazing on the deck w/ a glass of wine. Second flr laundry and 2 car garage with extra storage.

10. 2016-04-08
    soldstatus $260,000

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Everything Included - Granite, stainless steel appliances, hardwood floors, kitchen island, spacious bedrooms, and deck. Don't miss your oppty to own this meticulous brick-front townhome with room for all. You'll enjoy the familyroom on the first level and the oversized livingroom upstairs. Imagine star glazing on the deck w/ a glass of wine. Second flr laundry and 2 car garage with extra storage.

11. 2016-03-16
    status Contract 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Everything Included - Granite, stainless steel appliances, hardwood floors, kitchen island, spacious bedrooms, and deck. Don't miss your oppty to own this meticulous brick-front townhome with room for all. You'll enjoy the familyroom on the first level and the oversized livingroom upstairs. Imagine star glazing on the deck w/ a glass of wine. Second flr laundry and 2 car garage with extra storage.

12. 2016-03-04
    historical Contingent (Kick Out) 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Everything Included - Granite, stainless steel appliances, hardwood floors, kitchen island, spacious bedrooms, and deck. Don't miss your oppty to own this meticulous brick-front townhome with room for all. You'll enjoy the familyroom on the first level and the oversized livingroom upstairs. Imagine star glazing on the deck w/ a glass of wine. Second flr laundry and 2 car garage with extra storage.

13. 2016-02-28
    listed $260,000 Active 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Everything Included - Granite, stainless steel appliances, hardwood floors, kitchen island, spacious bedrooms, and deck. Don't miss your oppty to own this meticulous brick-front townhome with room for all. You'll enjoy the familyroom on the first level and the oversized livingroom upstairs. Imagine star glazing on the deck w/ a glass of wine. Second flr laundry and 2 car garage with extra storage.

14. 2014-11-14
    soldstatus $249,990
15. 2014-11-14
    soldstatus $249,990 Sold
16. 2014-11-10
    status Contract
17. 2014-11-10
    historical
18. 2014-08-29
    price $249,990 Active
19. 2014-08-29
    status Active
20. 2014-08-01
    status Contract
21. 2014-04-15
    price $259,990
22. 2014-01-18
    listed $256,990 Active
23. 2014-01-18
    listed $249,990
24. 2013-12-31
    historical
25. 2013-12-31
    historical
26. 2013-09-30
    listed Active
27. 2013-09-30
    listed $249,990

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,742 · $395/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,742 · $395/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,758
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,160
• − Property taxes: −$4,742
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,781
• − Management: −$2,781
• − HOA: −$1,116
• − Depreciation: −$10,470
• Taxable loss: −$9,091
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,182
• After-tax cash flow: $-665/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charles County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400270
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $90,389
• Composite: 22.54/100
• National rank: #8087
• State rank: #14 of 24 in MD

Livability — Bryans Road

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #315
• US rank: #16395

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bryans Road, MD
• Population (ZIP): 7,435

Population outlook (Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 176,616 people
• By 2030: 186,471 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 206,472 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 224,883 · +27.3%
• By 2075: 272,101 · +54.1%
• By 2100: 303,564 · +71.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 14% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Charles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+40.7) · D 69.2% · R 28.5% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.2pp toward D · 2008: 25.5pp · 2024: 40.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+40.7 2020: D+40.9 2016: D+30.2 2012: D+31.3 2008: D+25.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.83%
• Current HPI: 229.3107
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+44.0% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-16 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-12 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $359,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-28 Coming Soon $359,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $260,000 Public Records
• 2016-04-14 Delisted — MRIS
• 2016-04-08 Sold (MLS) $260,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-04-08 Sold (MLS) $260,000 MRIS
• 2016-03-16 Pending — MRIS
• 2016-03-04 Contingent — MRIS
• 2016-02-28 Listed $260,000 MRIS
• 2014-11-14 Sold (MLS) $249,990 MRIS
• 2014-11-14 Sold (MLS) $249,990 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-11-10 Pending — MRIS
• 2014-11-10 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-08-29 Relisted — MRIS
• 2014-08-29 Price Changed $249,990 MRIS
• 2014-08-01 Pending — MRIS
• 2014-04-15 Price Changed $259,990 MRIS
• 2014-01-18 Listed $256,990 MRIS
• 2014-01-18 Listed $249,990 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-12-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-12-31 Delisted — MRIS
• 2013-09-30 Listed — MRIS
• 2013-09-30 Listed $249,990 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+16.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,742 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.