815 E Sugarcane Dr Unit E4 · Weslaco, TX 78599

$95,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,124 sqft · Townhouse public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1999 871 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Lovely townhome featuring 1124 square feet of living consisting of 2 bedrooms and 1.5 bath. It is located in close proximity to expressway, schools, restaurants and various shopping centers.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1999
• Listed 25 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located on a 0.02-acre lot (about 871 sq ft); Part of a townhouse community with shared common area interest
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Detached covered parking; 2 total covered parking spaces; 2-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; City sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Townhouse (per community legal description); Entry facing north from East Sugar Cane Drive area
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Slab foundation; Composition shingle roof; Built area approximately 1,124
• Exterior features: Privacy wood fencing; Patio slab; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater (located in other location); No conveying appliances
• Bedrooms: Living area(s): 1
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Tile flooring; Laminate countertops; No window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet with washer/dryer connection

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $98 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.1% in Weslaco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#277 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Weslaco ISD (suburban): math 23% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #705 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Pfc Mario Ybarra El (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 519 students, 90% FRL); Mary Hoge Middle (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 938 students, 93% FRL); Weslaco East H S (math 24% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,250 of 1,632 statewide, top 77%, 2,004 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 59% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 234 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 87% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,575 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.43%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-9,067
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $450
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78599

• Home prices YoY: -3.7%
• Active inventory: 234
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,069 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,501/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $98

Break-even live

Break-even rent $945

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $152	-5% $125	+0% $98	+5% $71	+10% $44
Rent	-10% $14	-5% $56	+0% $98	+5% $140	+10% $183
Rate	-1.0pp $146	-0.5pp $122	base $98	+0.5pp $74	+1.0pp $49

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
815 E Sugarcane Dr Unit E4 Weslaco, TX	2.0	1.5	1124	$1,200	$1.07	44d	1	0.01mi
617 E Washington St Unit 4 Weslaco, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$900	$0.90	44d	1	0.12mi
607 E Washington St Weslaco, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$900	$0.90	44d	1	0.13mi
1601 S Airport Dr Unit 283 Weslaco, TX	3.0	2.0	1033	$1,600	$1.55	44d	1	0.84mi
1601 S Airport Dr Unit 261 Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	912	$1,500	$1.64	44d	1	0.84mi
3814 Bella Costa Dr Unit 3 Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	987	$1,025	$1.04	44d	1	1.00mi
3707 Las Vistas Ln Apt 1 Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	987	$1,025	$1.04	44d	1	1.00mi
1006 Lilia Dr Weslaco, TX	1.0	1.0	720	$650	$0.90	44d	1	1.09mi
2615 E Sugarcane Dr Weslaco, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–4.0	1108	$810	$0.73	22d	8	1.19mi
309 E Mesquite St Weslaco, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,400	$1.27	44d	1	1.21mi
2808 Rosemary Dr Unit 3 Weslaco, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	44d	1	1.32mi
3600 N Westgate Dr Weslaco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	819	$1,199	$1.46	24d	5	1.44mi
1416 Vani Dr Unit 1 Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	947	$990	$1.05	44d	1	1.45mi
1412 Vani Dr Unit 3 Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	960	$990	$1.03	44d	1	1.45mi
622 E Llano Grande St Weslaco, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $95,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $95,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $95,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $95,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    price $95,000 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $104,900 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $104,900 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $104,900 Active 6 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,900 Active 5 DOM
18. 2026-05-26
    listed $104,900 Active
19. 2026-02-14
    listed $1,200
20. 2024-05-22
    soldstatus
21. 2004-10-14
    soldstatus
22. 2004-10-14
    soldstatus
23. 2001-08-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,501 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,501 · $208/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,826
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$2,501
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,026
• − Management: −$1,026
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable loss: −$287
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$69
• After-tax cash flow: $1,248/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weslaco ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844960
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $32,867
• Composite: 22.05/100
• National rank: #8196
• State rank: #705 of 826 in TX

Livability — Weslaco

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #277
• US rank: #6469

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Weslaco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 35,400

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 96% Two or more races 42% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 90%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 19% English-only · Spanish 80%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.47%
• Current HPI: 243.5537
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+8641.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $104,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-02-14 Listed for Rent $1,200 REDFIN
• 2024-05-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-10-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-10-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-08-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,501 · +52.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.