12125 Lake Blvd Unit 24A · Redding, CA 96003

$50,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Manufactured public records · 102 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition $31/sqft · 55% below area Est $49k · at est. ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into comfort and convenience with this well-maintained 2020 mobile home featuring 2 cozy bedrooms, 1 full bathroom, and 696 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. This home offers a bright and open floor plan, complete with an indoor laundry area for added ease. Enjoy year-round comfort with a modern mini split heating and cooling system, and relax knowing everything is efficiently designed for low-maintenance living. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a quiet retreat, this home is move-in ready. Located in a welcoming community that features access to a sparkling pool and a clubhouse—perfect for relaxing or socializing with neighbors. Don't miss out on this affordable opportunity to own a slice of comfort with great amenities!

Key facts

• Indoor laundry area
• Clubhouse
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• INDOOR LAUNDRY AREA
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $961 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $46k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.3% vs local median 3.3% in Redding — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in CA, #3,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Gateway Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #355 of 517 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 391 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($46k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $45,500 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 82.33%
• DSCR: 4.66
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $48,800
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: 2.46%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12125 Lake Blvd #65	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,428 (-11%)	1mo	$78,000	$55	77
1450 Calexico Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (-4%)	1mo	$60,000	$39	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 86.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.16×
• Total profit: $58,207
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 89.8%
• Equity multiple: 11.85×
• Total profit: $151,835
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96003

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 391
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,653 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $961

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $995	-5% $978	+0% $961	+5% $943	+10% $926
Rent	-10% $830	-5% $895	+0% $961	+5% $1,026	+10% $1,091
Rate	-1.0pp $986	-0.5pp $973	base $961	+0.5pp $948	+1.0pp $934

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3465 Magnums Way Apt 2 Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,775	$1.64	44d	1	0.90mi
4433 White River Dr Redding, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	44d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 787-char remark

   Show marketing remark (787 chars)

   Step into comfort and convenience with this well-maintained 2020 mobile home featuring 2 cozy bedrooms, 1 full bathroom, and 696 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. This home offers a bright and open floor plan, complete with an indoor laundry area for added ease. Enjoy year-round comfort with a modern mini split heating and cooling system, and relax knowing everything is efficiently designed for low-maintenance living. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a quiet retreat, this home is move-in ready. Located in a welcoming community that features access to a sparkling pool and a clubhouse—perfect for relaxing or socializing with neighbors. Don't miss out on this affordable opportunity to own a slice of comfort with great amenities!

2. 2026-02-24
   price $50,000 787-char remark

   Show marketing remark (787 chars)

   Step into comfort and convenience with this well-maintained 2020 mobile home featuring 2 cozy bedrooms, 1 full bathroom, and 696 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. This home offers a bright and open floor plan, complete with an indoor laundry area for added ease. Enjoy year-round comfort with a modern mini split heating and cooling system, and relax knowing everything is efficiently designed for low-maintenance living. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a quiet retreat, this home is move-in ready. Located in a welcoming community that features access to a sparkling pool and a clubhouse—perfect for relaxing or socializing with neighbors. Don't miss out on this affordable opportunity to own a slice of comfort with great amenities!

3. 2026-02-24
   status Active 787-char remark

   Show marketing remark (787 chars)

   Step into comfort and convenience with this well-maintained 2020 mobile home featuring 2 cozy bedrooms, 1 full bathroom, and 696 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. This home offers a bright and open floor plan, complete with an indoor laundry area for added ease. Enjoy year-round comfort with a modern mini split heating and cooling system, and relax knowing everything is efficiently designed for low-maintenance living. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a quiet retreat, this home is move-in ready. Located in a welcoming community that features access to a sparkling pool and a clubhouse—perfect for relaxing or socializing with neighbors. Don't miss out on this affordable opportunity to own a slice of comfort with great amenities!

4. 2026-01-20
   listed $55,000 Active 787-char remark

   Show marketing remark (787 chars)

   Step into comfort and convenience with this well-maintained 2020 mobile home featuring 2 cozy bedrooms, 1 full bathroom, and 696 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. This home offers a bright and open floor plan, complete with an indoor laundry area for added ease. Enjoy year-round comfort with a modern mini split heating and cooling system, and relax knowing everything is efficiently designed for low-maintenance living. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a quiet retreat, this home is move-in ready. Located in a welcoming community that features access to a sparkling pool and a clubhouse—perfect for relaxing or socializing with neighbors. Don't miss out on this affordable opportunity to own a slice of comfort with great amenities!

5. 2025-08-21
   listed $59,000 Active
6. 2023-11-08
   soldstatus $52,500 Closed
7. 2023-08-21
   status Pending
8. 2023-07-17
   price $59,000
9. 2023-06-15
   listed $64,700 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,840
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,587
• − Management: −$1,587
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $11,410
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,738
• After-tax cash flow: $8,788/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2020 manufactured home is in good condition with minor repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with updates that can significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor Bathtub and fixtures — Signs of wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace worn kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and appearance
• Both Upgrade bathtub and fixtures — Modern fixtures enhance functionality and appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathtub and fixtures · Signs of wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace worn kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and appearance ↑
• Both Upgrade bathtub and fixtures — Modern fixtures enhance functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gateway Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,888
• Composite: 25.39/100
• National rank: #7465
• State rank: #355 of 517 in CA

Livability — Redding

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #3726

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• City population: 112,523
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,923
• Household income: $72,445
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1668.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.66%
• Current HPI: 152.3069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.98%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-22.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — SAOR
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $50,000 SAOR
• 2026-02-24 Relisted — SAOR
• 2026-01-20 Listed $55,000 SAOR
• 2025-08-21 Listed $59,000 SAOR
• 2023-11-08 Sold (MLS) $52,500 SAOR
• 2023-08-21 Pending — SAOR
• 2023-07-17 Price Changed $59,000 SAOR
• 2023-06-15 Listed $64,700 SAOR