2104 S Union St · Stockton, CA 95206

$235,950

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,047 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1905 5,049 sqft lot $225/sqft · 30% below area Est $337k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Plenty of parking here. Bring your boat or RV. This could be a great starter home. Close to schools and shopping.

Key facts

• Close to schools
• Plenty of parking
• Close to shopping

Tags

• PLENTY OF PARKING
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $236k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-76 ($-907/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Stockton Unified (urban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #295 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Alexander Hamilton Elementary (719 students, 85% FRL); Edison High (math 20% / reading 41%, grade F, #710 of 1,170 statewide, top 61%, 2,558 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools at 79% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 139 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,837 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.37%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $336,687
• List price: $235,950
• Delta: -29.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2319 S Union St	0.20mi	2/1.0	986 (-6%)	2mo	$318,000	$323	80
2131 S Sacramento St	0.09mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,072 (+2%)	9mo	$363,000	$339	78
719 Hyde Ct	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (-4%)	4mo	$329,900	$330	71
2020 S American St	0.37mi	2/1.0	962 (-8%)	2mo	$320,000	$333	68
1926 S San Joaquin St	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,011 (-3%)	6mo	$448,000	$443	52
2251 S American St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,153 (+10%)	8mo	$375,000	$325	49
1743 S American St	0.50mi	2/1.0	1,164 (+11%)	12mo	$329,000	$283	48
1912 S Sutter St	0.54mi	2/1.0	1,167 (+12%)	9mo	$325,000	$278	48
2121 Scribner St	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,183 (+13%)	2mo	$345,000	$292	45
2012 S American St	0.37mi	3/1.0 (+1)	893 (-15%)	10mo	$360,000	$403	45
2041 Superior St	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,199 (+14%)	4mo	$240,000	$200	44
2147 S San Joaquin St	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,132 (+8%)	11mo	$326,000	$288	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-48,787
• Equity at exit: $35,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-70,854
• Equity at exit: $20,401

Cash invested: $66,066 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95206

• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 139
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,968 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,237
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$295 /mo · $3,539/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,064

Max offer price $225,013

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $87	-5% $6	+0% $-76	+5% $-157	+10% $-239
Rent	-10% $-231	-5% $-153	+0% $-76	+5% $2	+10% $80
Rate	-1.0pp $43	-0.5pp $-16	base $-76	+0.5pp $-137	+1.0pp $-199

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,988
• Closing costs: $7,078
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1446 S Aurora St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	827	$1,900	$2.30	5d	1	0.61mi
114 E 4th St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,750	$1.84	25d	1	0.79mi
17 W 6th St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	720	$1,850	$2.57	5d	1	0.80mi
137 W 3rd St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	833	$1,795	$2.15	25d	1	0.99mi
521 S Sutter St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	810	$1,195	$1.48	45d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $235,950 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,950 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,950 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $235,950 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $240,000 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $240,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $240,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $240,000 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 55 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 26% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,620
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,217
• − Property taxes: −$3,539
• − Insurance: −$1,180
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,890
• − Management: −$1,890
• − Depreciation: −$6,864
• Taxable loss: −$4,959
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,190
• After-tax cash flow: $283/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stockton Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638010
• Math proficiency: 23% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $37,563
• Composite: 28.65/100
• National rank: #6701
• State rank: #295 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 68,558
• Household income: $83,432
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1459.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% Two or more races 20% Asian 18% Black 11% White 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Swiss 1% Russian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 46% Tagalog/Filipino 6% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -228.27%
• Current HPI: 357.6069
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.55%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $326 · -19.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.