4454 S Salina St · Syracuse, NY
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $691 – $1,283
Heat risk 3/10 · Minor
- Hot days now (above 95°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 16 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Appreciation +10.0/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Livability +3.9/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +1.8/10.0
$65,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Home just approved for free whole house insulation for new buyer. Long term tenant will not be removed by seller. The tenant pays $1000 per month and social services pays an additional $400. So, cash or conventional offers only. Large home with good size backyard. Close to hospital, community pool and many businesses.
Key facts
- 4,884 sq ft lot
- Built 1900
- Listed 68 days
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $65k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
- Recommended offer: $61k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 28.3% vs local median 8.2% in Syracuse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 77/100 on livability (#187 in NY, #2,869 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment D-.
- Syracuse City School District (urban): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #590 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $7k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
- Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
- At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
- By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 17 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
- Current owner paid $48k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 3.19% ✓
- Cap rate
- 28.27%
- Cash-on-cash
- 78.49%
- DSCR
- 4.49
- GRM
- 2.6
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $148,708
- Comps found
- 12
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 154 Seeley Ave | 0.15mi | 3/1.0 (-1) | 1,321 (+0%) | 3mo | $70,000 | $53 | 83 |
| 221 Weymouth Rd | 0.56mi | 3/1.5 (-1) | 1,313 (-0%) | 3mo | $203,000 | $155 | 66 |
| 212 W Glen Ave | 0.21mi | 5/2.0 (+1) | 1,446 (+10%) | 3mo | $212,000 | $147 | 64 |
| 130 Cortland Pl | 0.45mi | 3/2.5 (-1) | 1,344 (+2%) | 6mo | $194,250 | $145 | 62 |
| 237 Evaleen Ave #39 | 0.53mi | 3/1.0 (-1) | 1,298 (-1%) | 5mo | $128,750 | $99 | 61 |
| 144 Oakdale Dr | 0.74mi | 3/1.5 (-1) | 1,344 (+2%) | 1mo | $72,000 | $54 | 56 |
| 133 Hobart Ave | 0.64mi | 3/1.0 (-1) | 1,248 (-5%) | 1mo | $145,000 | $116 | 54 |
| 142 Maxwell Ave | 0.71mi | 4/2.0 | 1,392 (+6%) | 4mo | $122,500 | $88 | 52 |
| 147 E Matson Ave | 0.69mi | 4/2.5 | 1,421 (+8%) | 3mo | $80,000 | $56 | 48 |
| 122 Maxwell Ave | 0.67mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,410 (+7%) | 4mo | $160,000 | $113 | 47 |
| 136 Weymouth Rd | 0.56mi | 3/1.5 (-1) | 1,508 (+15%) | 6mo | $230,000 | $153 | 40 |
| 184 W Matson Ave | 0.66mi | 3/1.5 (-1) | 1,142 (-13%) | 5mo | $105,000 | $92 | 38 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 88.6%
- Equity multiple
- 7.11×
- Total profit
- $111,249
- Equity at exit
- $58,557
- IRR
- 83.3%
- Equity multiple
- 15.73×
- Total profit
- $268,052
- Equity at exit
- $126,281
Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
- State New York
- 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 13205
- Home prices YoY
- 3.0%
- Active inventory
- 67
- Price-to-rent
- 2.6×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,076 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$341
- Tax from tax record
- −$82 /mo · $981/yr
- Insurance
- −$27
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$436
- Net cashflow
- $1,190
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $16,250
- Closing costs
- $1,950
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 4 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 154 Seeley Ave Syracuse, NY | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1312 | $2,100 | $1.60 | 13d | 1 | 0.16mi |
| 147 E Matson Ave Syracuse, NY | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1421 | $2,000 | $1.41 | 21d | 1 | 0.68mi |
| 2331 Midland Ave Syracuse, NY | 4.0 | 1.5 | 1664 | $2,300 | $1.38 | 21d | 1 | 0.91mi |
| 213 Fletcher Ave Unit 2 Syracuse, NY | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1200 | $1,700 | $1.42 | 13d | 1 | 1.42mi |
Listing history 49 events
-
2025-12-15soldstatus $48,000
-
2025-10-14status Pending
-
2025-09-26status Active
-
2025-04-28status Pending
-
2025-03-21status Active
-
2025-02-25$65,000 Active
-
2024-07-25soldstatus $50,000
-
2024-07-19soldstatus $50,000 Closed 319-char remark
Show marketing remark (319 chars)
Home just approved for free whole house insulation for new buyer. Long term tenant will not be removed by seller. The tenant pays $1000 per month and social services pays an additional $400. So, cash or conventional offers only. Large home with good size backyard. Close to hospital, community pool and many businesses.
-
2024-06-29status Pending 319-char remark
Show marketing remark (319 chars)
Home just approved for free whole house insulation for new buyer. Long term tenant will not be removed by seller. The tenant pays $1000 per month and social services pays an additional $400. So, cash or conventional offers only. Large home with good size backyard. Close to hospital, community pool and many businesses.
-
2024-06-23historical Active Under Contract 319-char remark
Show marketing remark (319 chars)
Home just approved for free whole house insulation for new buyer. Long term tenant will not be removed by seller. The tenant pays $1000 per month and social services pays an additional $400. So, cash or conventional offers only. Large home with good size backyard. Close to hospital, community pool and many businesses.
-
2024-06-16status Pending 319-char remark
Show marketing remark (319 chars)
Home just approved for free whole house insulation for new buyer. Long term tenant will not be removed by seller. The tenant pays $1000 per month and social services pays an additional $400. So, cash or conventional offers only. Large home with good size backyard. Close to hospital, community pool and many businesses.
-
2024-06-04status Active
Show marketing remark (319 chars)
Home just approved for free whole house insulation for new buyer. Long term tenant will not be removed by seller. The tenant pays $1000 per month and social services pays an additional $400. So, cash or conventional offers only. Large home with good size backyard. Close to hospital, community pool and many businesses.
-
2024-06-04$59,900 Active 319-char remark
Show marketing remark (319 chars)
Home just approved for free whole house insulation for new buyer. Long term tenant will not be removed by seller. The tenant pays $1000 per month and social services pays an additional $400. So, cash or conventional offers only. Large home with good size backyard. Close to hospital, community pool and many businesses.
-
2024-05-31historical
-
2024-05-22status Pending
-
2024-04-24status Active
-
2024-01-04status Pending
-
2024-01-04price $59,900
-
2023-11-20price $47,500
-
2023-11-10status Active
-
2023-08-30status Pending Sale
-
2023-08-23historical Continue to Show- Under Contract
-
2023-07-07price $49,900
-
2023-02-13$54,900 Active
-
2022-10-04historical
-
2022-09-14price $54,900
-
2022-09-09price $55,900
-
2022-09-04price $56,900
-
2022-07-14$57,900 Active
-
2022-06-30historical
-
2021-11-29$52,900 Active
-
2021-11-19historical
-
2021-10-24price $53,900
-
2021-09-17$54,900 Active
-
2020-12-07soldstatus $37,500
-
2020-12-01soldstatus $37,500 Closed Sale or Rented
-
2020-10-27status Pending Sale
-
2020-04-09$38,000 Active
-
2020-04-08historical
-
2019-06-15$39,900 Active
-
2019-06-14historical
-
2018-11-07$39,900 Active
-
2018-10-25historical
-
2018-07-05$42,900 Active
-
2018-06-30historical
-
2018-01-11$42,900 Active
-
2017-04-20historical
-
2017-02-24$44,900 Active
-
2013-04-19soldstatus $10,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $981 · $82/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $1,040 · $87/mo
- Expected delta
- +$59/yr (+$5/mo · 6.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $24,912
- − Mortgage interest
- −$3,641
- − Property taxes
- −$981
- − Insurance
- −$325
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,993
- − Management
- −$1,993
- − Depreciation
- −$1,891
- Taxable income
- $14,089
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$3,381
- After-tax cash flow
- $10,903/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Syracuse City School District
- NCES district ID
- 3628590
- Math proficiency
- 18% ▼ -5.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 26% ▬ 0.00%
- Median HH income
- $32,097
- Composite
- 17.83/100
- National rank
- #9007
- State rank
- #590 of 590 in NY
Livability — Syracuse
- Score
- 77/100
- State rank
- #187
- US rank
- #2869
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Syracuse, NY
- City population
- 152,627
- Population (ZIP)
- 18,562
Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 467,894 people
- By 2030
- 463,381 · -1.0%
- By 2040
- 447,697 · -4.3%
- By 2050
- 426,399 · -8.9%
- By 2075
- 373,661 · -20.1%
- By 2100
- 307,967 · -34.2%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
- Race & ethnicity
- Black 44% White 37% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Puerto Rican 4%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 2% Italian 2% Swiss 1%
- Foreign-born
- 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
- Languages at home
- 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga
- 2024 margin
- D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▲ 10.12%
- Current HPI
- 345.8854
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.60%
- F500 in state
- 92
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Financial Services | 10 | $950B |
|
||
| Consumer Goods | 9 | $162B |
|
||
| Insurance | 4 | $225B |
|
||
| Telecommunications | 2 | $144B |
|
||
| Pharmaceuticals | 2 | $112B |
|
||
| Media / Entertainment | 2 | $69B |
|
||
Price history
+380.0% since first listed49 events — show timeline
- 2025-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
- 2025-10-14 Pending — CNYIS
- 2025-09-26 Relisted — CNYIS
- 2025-04-28 Pending — CNYIS
- 2025-03-21 Relisted — CNYIS
- 2025-02-25 Listed $65,000 CNYIS
- 2024-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
- 2024-07-19 Sold (MLS) $50,000 CNYIS
- 2024-06-29 Pending — CNYIS
- 2024-06-23 Contingent — CNYIS
- 2024-06-16 Pending — CNYIS
- 2024-06-04 Relisted — CNYIS
- 2024-06-04 Listed $59,900 CNYIS
- 2024-05-31 Listing Removed — CNYIS
- 2024-05-22 Pending — CNYIS
- 2024-04-24 Relisted — CNYIS
- 2024-01-04 Pending — CNYIS
- 2024-01-04 Price Changed $59,900 CNYIS
- 2023-11-20 Price Changed $47,500 CNYIS
- 2023-11-10 Relisted — CNYIS
- 2023-08-30 Pending — CNYIS
- 2023-08-23 Contingent — CNYIS
- 2023-07-07 Price Changed $49,900 CNYIS
- 2023-02-13 Listed $54,900 CNYIS
- 2022-10-04 Listing Removed — CNYIS
- 2022-09-14 Price Changed $54,900 CNYIS
- 2022-09-09 Price Changed $55,900 CNYIS
- 2022-09-04 Price Changed $56,900 CNYIS
- 2022-07-14 Listed $57,900 CNYIS
- 2022-06-30 Listing Removed — CNYIS
- 2021-11-29 Listed $52,900 CNYIS
- 2021-11-19 Listing Removed — CNYIS
- 2021-10-24 Price Changed $53,900 CNYIS
- 2021-09-17 Listed $54,900 CNYIS
- 2020-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $37,500 Public Records
- 2020-12-01 Sold (MLS) $37,500 CNYIS
- 2020-10-27 Pending — CNYIS
- 2020-04-09 Listed $38,000 CNYIS
- 2020-04-08 Listing Removed — CNYIS
- 2019-06-15 Listed $39,900 CNYIS
- 2019-06-14 Listing Removed — CNYIS
- 2018-11-07 Listed $39,900 CNYIS
- 2018-10-25 Listing Removed — CNYIS
- 2018-07-05 Listed $42,900 CNYIS
- 2018-06-30 Listing Removed — CNYIS
- 2018-01-11 Listed $42,900 CNYIS
- 2017-04-20 Listing Removed — CNYIS
- 2017-02-24 Listed $44,900 CNYIS
- 2013-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
Property tax history
-0.3%/yrLatest (2025): $981 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…