146 Red Oak Trl · Milledgeville, GA 31061

$155,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,560 sqft · Other · 154 Days on market

Built 2024 3,484 sqft lot $99/sqft · at area comps Est $161k · at est. $68/mo HOA · 4% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WELCOME TO 146 RED OAK TRAIL . This townhome features an inviting open floor plan & priced at $155,000. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers comfort, functionality, and convenience. The main level boasts a spacious, open-concept layout that blends the living, dining, & kitchen areas. The kitchen features a large center island, perfect for meal prep, casual dining, or entertaining friends. Upstairs, the primary suite includes its own full bath, while two additional bedrooms & another full bath provide plenty of space. A convenient 1-car garage offers extra storage. The home is located close to shopping, schools, dining, and Lake Sinclair recreation--offering both comfort & easy access to everything Milledgeville has to offer. A fantastic opportunity at an affordable price. Call today.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Close to schools
• Large center island

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO DINING
• CLOSE TO LAKE SINCLAIR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.9% in Milledgeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#134 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities D+, schools F, crime F.
• Baldwin County (town): math 13% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #152 of 174 in GA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 375 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 202 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.07%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $160,782
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -3.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-11,582
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $12,719
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31061

• Home prices YoY: -29.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 375
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,674 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,325/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$68
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,442

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
274 Oakwood Dr NW Milledgeville, GA	3.0	2.5	1538	$1,734	$1.13	43d	1	0.03mi
302 Oakwood Dr NW Milledgeville, GA	3.0	2.5	1538	$1,684	$1.09	43d	1	0.05mi
261 Oakwood Dr NW Milledgeville, GA	3.0	2.5	1538	$1,684	$1.09	43d	1	0.05mi
146 Cypress Oak Trl NW Milledgeville, GA	2.0	2.0	1351	$1,595	$1.18	43d	1	0.13mi
425 Oakwood Dr NW Milledgeville, GA	3.0	2.5	1538	$1,684	$1.09	43d	1	0.17mi
454 Oakwood Dr NW Milledgeville, GA	3.0	2.5	1538	$1,950	$1.27	43d	1	0.19mi
180 Milledge Commons Dr NE Milledgeville, GA	3.0	2.5	1381	$1,800	$1.30	43d	1	1.00mi
162 Milledge Commons Dr NE Milledgeville, GA	3.0	2.5	1381	$1,800	$1.30	43d	1	1.02mi
109 Milledge Commons Dr Milledgeville, GA	3.0	2.5	1895	$2,100	$1.11	43d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $68 · $816/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-18
   historical Active Under Contract 818-char remark

   Show marketing remark (825 chars)

   WELCOME TO 146 RED OAK TRAIL . This townhome features an inviting open floor plan & priced at $155,000. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers comfort, functionality, and convenience. The main level boasts a spacious, open-concept layout that blends the living, dining, & kitchen areas. The kitchen features a large center island, perfect for meal prep, casual dining, or entertaining friends. Upstairs, the primary suite includes its own full bath, while two additional bedrooms & another full bath provide plenty of space. A convenient 1-car garage offers extra storage. The home is located close to shopping, schools, dining, and Lake Sinclair recreation—offering both comfort & easy access to everything Milledgeville has to offer. A fantastic opportunity at an affordable price. Call today.

2. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 825-char remark

   Show marketing remark (825 chars)

   WELCOME TO 146 RED OAK TRAIL . This townhome features an inviting open floor plan & priced at $155,000. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers comfort, functionality, and convenience. The main level boasts a spacious, open-concept layout that blends the living, dining, & kitchen areas. The kitchen features a large center island, perfect for meal prep, casual dining, or entertaining friends. Upstairs, the primary suite includes its own full bath, while two additional bedrooms & another full bath provide plenty of space. A convenient 1-car garage offers extra storage. The home is located close to shopping, schools, dining, and Lake Sinclair recreation—offering both comfort & easy access to everything Milledgeville has to offer. A fantastic opportunity at an affordable price. Call today.

3. 2026-04-02
   price $155,000 825-char remark

   Show marketing remark (818 chars)

   WELCOME TO 146 RED OAK TRAIL . This townhome features an inviting open floor plan & priced at $155,000. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers comfort, functionality, and convenience. The main level boasts a spacious, open-concept layout that blends the living, dining, & kitchen areas. The kitchen features a large center island, perfect for meal prep, casual dining, or entertaining friends. Upstairs, the primary suite includes its own full bath, while two additional bedrooms & another full bath provide plenty of space. A convenient 1-car garage offers extra storage. The home is located close to shopping, schools, dining, and Lake Sinclair recreation--offering both comfort & easy access to everything Milledgeville has to offer. A fantastic opportunity at an affordable price. Call today.

4. 2026-04-02
   price $155,000 818-char remark

   Show marketing remark (818 chars)

   WELCOME TO 146 RED OAK TRAIL . This townhome features an inviting open floor plan & priced at $155,000. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers comfort, functionality, and convenience. The main level boasts a spacious, open-concept layout that blends the living, dining, & kitchen areas. The kitchen features a large center island, perfect for meal prep, casual dining, or entertaining friends. Upstairs, the primary suite includes its own full bath, while two additional bedrooms & another full bath provide plenty of space. A convenient 1-car garage offers extra storage. The home is located close to shopping, schools, dining, and Lake Sinclair recreation--offering both comfort & easy access to everything Milledgeville has to offer. A fantastic opportunity at an affordable price. Call today.

5. 2026-03-13
   status Active 818-char remark

   Show marketing remark (825 chars)

   WELCOME TO 146 RED OAK TRAIL . This townhome features an inviting open floor plan & priced at $155,000. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers comfort, functionality, and convenience. The main level boasts a spacious, open-concept layout that blends the living, dining, & kitchen areas. The kitchen features a large center island, perfect for meal prep, casual dining, or entertaining friends. Upstairs, the primary suite includes its own full bath, while two additional bedrooms & another full bath provide plenty of space. A convenient 1-car garage offers extra storage. The home is located close to shopping, schools, dining, and Lake Sinclair recreation—offering both comfort & easy access to everything Milledgeville has to offer. A fantastic opportunity at an affordable price. Call today.

6. 2026-03-13
   status Active 825-char remark

   Show marketing remark (825 chars)

   WELCOME TO 146 RED OAK TRAIL . This townhome features an inviting open floor plan & priced at $155,000. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers comfort, functionality, and convenience. The main level boasts a spacious, open-concept layout that blends the living, dining, & kitchen areas. The kitchen features a large center island, perfect for meal prep, casual dining, or entertaining friends. Upstairs, the primary suite includes its own full bath, while two additional bedrooms & another full bath provide plenty of space. A convenient 1-car garage offers extra storage. The home is located close to shopping, schools, dining, and Lake Sinclair recreation—offering both comfort & easy access to everything Milledgeville has to offer. A fantastic opportunity at an affordable price. Call today.

7. 2026-03-10
   historical Active Under Contract 818-char remark

   Show marketing remark (825 chars)

   WELCOME TO 146 RED OAK TRAIL . This townhome features an inviting open floor plan & priced at $155,000. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers comfort, functionality, and convenience. The main level boasts a spacious, open-concept layout that blends the living, dining, & kitchen areas. The kitchen features a large center island, perfect for meal prep, casual dining, or entertaining friends. Upstairs, the primary suite includes its own full bath, while two additional bedrooms & another full bath provide plenty of space. A convenient 1-car garage offers extra storage. The home is located close to shopping, schools, dining, and Lake Sinclair recreation—offering both comfort & easy access to everything Milledgeville has to offer. A fantastic opportunity at an affordable price. Call today.

8. 2026-03-10
   status Pending 825-char remark

   Show marketing remark (825 chars)

   WELCOME TO 146 RED OAK TRAIL . This townhome features an inviting open floor plan & priced at $155,000. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers comfort, functionality, and convenience. The main level boasts a spacious, open-concept layout that blends the living, dining, & kitchen areas. The kitchen features a large center island, perfect for meal prep, casual dining, or entertaining friends. Upstairs, the primary suite includes its own full bath, while two additional bedrooms & another full bath provide plenty of space. A convenient 1-car garage offers extra storage. The home is located close to shopping, schools, dining, and Lake Sinclair recreation—offering both comfort & easy access to everything Milledgeville has to offer. A fantastic opportunity at an affordable price. Call today.

9. 2026-02-17
   price $174,500 825-char remark

   Show marketing remark (818 chars)

   WELCOME TO 146 RED OAK TRAIL . This townhome features an inviting open floor plan & priced at $155,000. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers comfort, functionality, and convenience. The main level boasts a spacious, open-concept layout that blends the living, dining, & kitchen areas. The kitchen features a large center island, perfect for meal prep, casual dining, or entertaining friends. Upstairs, the primary suite includes its own full bath, while two additional bedrooms & another full bath provide plenty of space. A convenient 1-car garage offers extra storage. The home is located close to shopping, schools, dining, and Lake Sinclair recreation--offering both comfort & easy access to everything Milledgeville has to offer. A fantastic opportunity at an affordable price. Call today.

10. 2026-02-17
    price $174,500 818-char remark

    Show marketing remark (818 chars)

    WELCOME TO 146 RED OAK TRAIL . This townhome features an inviting open floor plan & priced at $155,000. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers comfort, functionality, and convenience. The main level boasts a spacious, open-concept layout that blends the living, dining, & kitchen areas. The kitchen features a large center island, perfect for meal prep, casual dining, or entertaining friends. Upstairs, the primary suite includes its own full bath, while two additional bedrooms & another full bath provide plenty of space. A convenient 1-car garage offers extra storage. The home is located close to shopping, schools, dining, and Lake Sinclair recreation--offering both comfort & easy access to everything Milledgeville has to offer. A fantastic opportunity at an affordable price. Call today.

11. 2026-01-05
    price $184,500 818-char remark

    Show marketing remark (825 chars)

    WELCOME TO 146 RED OAK TRAIL . This townhome features an inviting open floor plan & priced at $155,000. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers comfort, functionality, and convenience. The main level boasts a spacious, open-concept layout that blends the living, dining, & kitchen areas. The kitchen features a large center island, perfect for meal prep, casual dining, or entertaining friends. Upstairs, the primary suite includes its own full bath, while two additional bedrooms & another full bath provide plenty of space. A convenient 1-car garage offers extra storage. The home is located close to shopping, schools, dining, and Lake Sinclair recreation—offering both comfort & easy access to everything Milledgeville has to offer. A fantastic opportunity at an affordable price. Call today.

12. 2026-01-05
    price $184,500 825-char remark

    Show marketing remark (825 chars)

    WELCOME TO 146 RED OAK TRAIL . This townhome features an inviting open floor plan & priced at $155,000. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers comfort, functionality, and convenience. The main level boasts a spacious, open-concept layout that blends the living, dining, & kitchen areas. The kitchen features a large center island, perfect for meal prep, casual dining, or entertaining friends. Upstairs, the primary suite includes its own full bath, while two additional bedrooms & another full bath provide plenty of space. A convenient 1-car garage offers extra storage. The home is located close to shopping, schools, dining, and Lake Sinclair recreation—offering both comfort & easy access to everything Milledgeville has to offer. A fantastic opportunity at an affordable price. Call today.

13. 2025-12-11
    listed $195,000 Active 818-char remark

    Show marketing remark (825 chars)

    WELCOME TO 146 RED OAK TRAIL . This townhome features an inviting open floor plan & priced at $155,000. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers comfort, functionality, and convenience. The main level boasts a spacious, open-concept layout that blends the living, dining, & kitchen areas. The kitchen features a large center island, perfect for meal prep, casual dining, or entertaining friends. Upstairs, the primary suite includes its own full bath, while two additional bedrooms & another full bath provide plenty of space. A convenient 1-car garage offers extra storage. The home is located close to shopping, schools, dining, and Lake Sinclair recreation—offering both comfort & easy access to everything Milledgeville has to offer. A fantastic opportunity at an affordable price. Call today.

14. 2025-12-11
    listed $195,000 Active 825-char remark

    Show marketing remark (825 chars)

    WELCOME TO 146 RED OAK TRAIL . This townhome features an inviting open floor plan & priced at $155,000. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers comfort, functionality, and convenience. The main level boasts a spacious, open-concept layout that blends the living, dining, & kitchen areas. The kitchen features a large center island, perfect for meal prep, casual dining, or entertaining friends. Upstairs, the primary suite includes its own full bath, while two additional bedrooms & another full bath provide plenty of space. A convenient 1-car garage offers extra storage. The home is located close to shopping, schools, dining, and Lake Sinclair recreation—offering both comfort & easy access to everything Milledgeville has to offer. A fantastic opportunity at an affordable price. Call today.

15. 2024-01-16
    soldstatus $1,575,000
16. 2022-05-17
    soldstatus $998,000
17. 2022-03-28
    soldstatus $666,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,090
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,325
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,607
• − Management: −$1,607
• − HOA: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$232
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$56
• After-tax cash flow: $2,256/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 1300210
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $35,615
• Composite: 13.61/100
• National rank: #9508
• State rank: #152 of 174 in GA

Livability — Milledgeville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #9206

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Baldwin County · 41,764 people
• City population: 41,764
• Metro: Milledgeville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 41,764
• Household income: $54,263
• Rent vs Own: 40.6% rent · 59.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1630.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,602 people
• By 2030: 45,481 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 44,310 · -2.8%
• By 2050: 42,129 · -7.6%
• By 2075: 36,819 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 29,320 · -35.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 43% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.6% · R 50.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.8pp toward R · 2008: 4.6pp · 2024: -2.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.2 2020: D+1.3 2016: D+1.7 2012: D+5.5 2008: D+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.16%
• Current HPI: 241.3758
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Metro: Milledgeville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-76.7% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Contingent — MGMLS
• 2026-05-18 Pending — CGMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $155,000 CGMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $155,000 MGMLS
• 2026-03-13 Relisted — MGMLS
• 2026-03-13 Relisted — CGMLS
• 2026-03-10 Contingent — MGMLS
• 2026-03-10 Pending — CGMLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $174,500 CGMLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $174,500 MGMLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $184,500 MGMLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $184,500 CGMLS
• 2025-12-11 Listed $195,000 CGMLS
• 2025-12-11 Listed $195,000 MGMLS
• 2024-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $1,575,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $998,000 Public Records
• 2022-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $666,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $88 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.