42424 N Gavilan Peak Pkwy #63212 · Anthem, AZ 85086

$280,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,203 sqft · Condo · 296 Days on market

Built 2005 Good condition $233/sqft · 17% below area Est $339k · 17% under $427/mo HOA · 21% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Cash flow +4.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience Elevated Living In This Stunning Luxury Condominium In Highly Sought-After Serenity Villas At Anthem. Corner-Unit Retreat Offers Exceptional Privacy & Breathtaking Mountain Views That Set The Stage For Unforgettable Sunsets. Beautifully Upgraded Chef's Kitchen Features Exquisite Cabinetry, A Large Granite Island & Premium Appliance Package Including The Refrigerator, Making It As Functional As It Is Elegant. Designed For Comfort & Sophistication, This Home Showcases Meticulous Craftsmanship, Open-Concept Living & Timeless Style Throughout. The Anthem Lifestyle Amenities Include Clubhouse, Rec Room Tennis Courts Community Media Room Community Spa Golf Racquetball Pickleball Workout Facility In One Of The Community's Most Desirable Locations.

Key facts

• Large granite island
• Luxury condominium
• Corner-unit retreat

Tags

• LUXURY CONDOMINIUM
• CORNER-UNIT RETREAT
• BREATHTAKING MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• UPGRADED CHEF'S KITCHEN
• LARGE GRANITE ISLAND
• PREMIUM APPLIANCE PACKAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-757 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (39.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (27.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (39.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#98 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Canyon Springs Stem Academy (math 59% / reading 67%, grade B, #121 of 1,109 statewide, top 11%, 801 students, 19% FRL); Boulder Creek High School (math 45% / reading 48%, grade D-, #55 of 381 statewide, top 14%, 2,375 students, 13% FRL) — zoned schools at 16% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 462 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 30d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 296 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $178k; list at $280k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,408 (39.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 296 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.59%
• DSCR: 0.48
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $338,766
• List price: $280,000
• Delta: -17.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
42424 N Gavilan Peak Pkwy #53206	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,204 (+0%)	3mo	$302,000	$251	95
42424 N Gavilan Peak Pkwy #57104	0.07mi	2/2.5	1,325 (+10%)	2mo	$310,000	$234	76
42424 N Gavilan Peak Pkwy #34104	0.02mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,325 (+10%)	3mo	$300,000	$226	73
40832 N Columbia Trl	0.93mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,264 (+5%)	1mo	$405,000	$320	50
40725 N Territory Trl	1.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,264 (+5%)	3mo	$449,900	$356	49
3511 W Morse Ct	1.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,264 (+5%)	4mo	$395,000	$313	48
3658 W Mccauley Ct	0.50mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,469 (+22%)	2mo	$362,750	$247	43
2951 W Plum Hollow Dr	0.91mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+12%)	3mo	$415,000	$309	43
41417 N Clear Crossing Rd	0.82mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+12%)	4mo	$420,000	$313	42
41902 N Crooked Stick Rd	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,400 (+16%)	3mo	$520,000	$371	42
2618 W Wayne Ln	1.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,370 (+14%)	0mo	$405,000	$296	37
3723 W Memorial Dr	1.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,432 (+19%)	4mo	$416,000	$291	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -39.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-96,098
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -74.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.99×
• Total profit: $-155,707
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active · 1 under contract
• Median asking: $288,900 ($240/sqft)
• Median days on market: 124 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +17.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85086

• Home prices YoY: -27.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 462
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,031 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,200/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$427
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $-757

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,990

Max offer price $170,408

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-564	-5% $-661	+0% $-757	+5% $-854	+10% $-951
Rent	-10% $-918	-5% $-838	+0% $-757	+5% $-677	+10% $-597
Rate	-1.0pp $-616	-0.5pp $-686	base $-757	+0.5pp $-830	+1.0pp $-904

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
42424 N Gavilan Peak Pkwy Anthem, AZ	2.0	2.5	1325	$1,694	$1.28	0d	2	0.04mi
42424 N Gavilan Peak Pkwy #1102 Anthem, AZ	2.0	2.5	1325	$1,695	$1.28	48d	1	0.05mi
3825 W Anthem Way Anthem, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1142	$1,555	$1.36	0d	18	0.45mi
3837 W Ashton Dr Anthem, AZ	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,995	$1.39	27d	1	0.46mi
3653 W Bryce Ct Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1469	$2,000	$1.36	0d	1	0.52mi
3878 W Ashton Dr Anthem, AZ	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,300	$1.61	23d	1	0.56mi
3707 W McCauley Ct Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1469	$1,895	$1.29	30d	1	0.58mi
41362 N Miles Ct Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1415	$2,065	$1.46	73d	1	0.62mi
41410 N Fairgreen Way Anthem, AZ	2.0	2.0	1344	$4,000	$2.98	93d	1	0.87mi
4159 W Kenai Dr New River, AZ	2.0	2.5	1452	$2,175	$1.50	93d	1	1.01mi
40707 N Boone Ln Anthem, AZ	3.0	2.0	1402	$2,150	$1.53	2d	1	1.05mi
40707 N Boone Ln Anthem, AZ	3.0	2.0	1403	$2,150	$1.53	23d	1	1.05mi
40619 N Key Ln Anthem, AZ	3.0	2.0	1264	$2,240	$1.77	93d	1	1.06mi
3727 W Memorial Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1230	$2,500	$2.03	67d	1	1.08mi
40720 N Territory Trl Anthem, AZ	3.0	2.0	1403	$1,976	$1.41	40d	1	1.09mi
4285 W Denali Ln Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1446	$1,995	$1.38	0d	11	1.12mi
43843 N 43rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,230	$2.28	0d	1	1.19mi
3511 W Morse Ct Anthem, AZ	3.0	2.0	1264	$2,200	$1.74	62d	1	1.24mi
3553 W Morse Ct Anthem, AZ	3.0	2.0	1264	$2,150	$1.70	93d	1	1.25mi
2501 W Myopia Dr Unit 1546125P Anthem, AZ	2.0	2.0	1485	$2,419	$1.63	64d	1	1.33mi
40139 N Patriot Way Anthem, AZ	3.0	2.0	1264	$1,979	$1.57	16d	1	1.37mi
40139 N Patriot Way Anthem, AZ	3.0	2.0	1264	$2,019	$1.60	25d	1	1.37mi
2462 W Turtle Hill Dr Anthem, AZ	2.0	2.0	1400	$5,000	$3.57	30d	1	1.37mi
2423 W Shadow Glen Ct Anthem, AZ	2.0	2.0	1344	$3,990	$2.97	93d	1	1.39mi
42418 N 46th Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,200	$1.54	26d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail $427/mo · $5,124/yr condo

• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $280,000 Active 296 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $280,000 Active 294 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $280,000 Active 293 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $280,000 Active 292 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $280,000 Active 291 DOM
6. 2026-08-01
   days on market $280,000 Active 288 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $280,000 Active 286 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $280,000 Active 285 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $280,000 Active 283 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $280,000 Active 281 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $280,000 Active 280 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $280,000 Active 279 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $280,000 Active 278 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $280,000 Active 277 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $280,000 Active 275 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $280,000 Active 274 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $280,000 Active 273 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $280,000 Active 272 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $280,000 Active 271 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $280,000 Active 270 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $280,000 Active 269 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $280,000 Active 268 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $280,000 Active 267 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $280,000 Active 266 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $280,000 Active 264 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $280,000 Active 263 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $280,000 Active 262 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $280,000 Active 261 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $280,000 Active 260 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $280,000 Active 259 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $280,000 Active 258 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $280,000 Active 257 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $280,000 Active 256 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $280,000 Active 255 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $280,000 Active 254 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $280,000 Active 253 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $280,000 Active 251 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $280,000 Active 249 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $280,000 Active 248 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $280,000 Active 245 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $280,000 Active 244 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $280,000 Active 243 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $280,000 Active 242 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $280,000 Active 240 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $280,000 Active 239 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $280,000 Active 236 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $280,000 Active 235 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $280,000 Active 234 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $280,000 Active 231 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $280,000 Active 230 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,374
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$4,200
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,950
• − Management: −$1,950
• − HOA: −$5,124
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$14,079
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,379
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,709/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,015–$18,045 screening

This well-maintained and upgraded townhouse in Anthem offers a good starting point for investors looking to enhance its value through cosmetic improvements and updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and resale value. ↑
• Both Updating the bathrooms — Improves functionality and adds value for both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 55/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Canyon Springs Stem Academy B AZ #121/1,109 Nat'l #5,998/41,679 High Boulder Creek High School D- AZ #55/381 Nat'l #6,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Valley Unified District (4246)
• NCES district ID: 0407750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $72,516
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2346
• State rank: #33 of 249 in AZ

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Anthem

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #14158

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Anthem, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,979,203 people
• City population: 43,270
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 43,270
• Household income: $121,676
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

---

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Romanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -117.19%
• Current HPI: 305.1539
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.62%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+36.0% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $280,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $300,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $324,900 ARMLS
• 2025-10-16 Listed $339,900 ARMLS
• 2025-08-06 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-03-26 Listed $353,999 ARMLS
• 2025-03-06 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-10-11 Listed $363,000 ARMLS
• 2024-08-30 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-08-26 Price Changed $355,000 ARMLS
• 2018-09-27 Sold (MLS) $177,500 ARMLS
• 2018-09-06 Pending — ARMLS
• 2018-08-24 Price Changed $181,000 ARMLS
• 2018-08-10 Price Changed $182,000 ARMLS
• 2018-07-20 Price Changed $183,000 ARMLS
• 2018-06-30 Listed $184,000 ARMLS
• 2017-07-14 Sold (MLS) $154,500 ARMLS
• 2017-07-12 Pending — ARMLS
• 2017-06-23 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2017-06-21 Listed $155,000 ARMLS
• 2011-08-17 Sold (MLS) $92,500 ARMLS
• 2011-07-23 Pending — ARMLS
• 2011-07-08 Listed $95,000 ARMLS
• 2010-03-03 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2009-11-11 Listed $135,000 ARMLS
• 2008-05-21 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2007-08-29 Listed $205,900 ARMLS