4528 Lafayette Dr · Bismarck, ND 58501

$104,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured · 2 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2007 $525/mo HOA · 40% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful one-owner, 3 bed, 2 bath home located in Century Park. Master bedroom has a large master bath with garden bathtub. Open kitchen has skylights, new flooring, new light fixtures, backsplash, and newer appliances. The large two-stall garage has a 12x32 loft for extra storage, a floor drain, and a plug-in for your camper. Enjoy your evenings in the gorgeous backyard that features a large deck with no backyard neighbors and a 10x12 storage shed. Call your favorite realtor for a showing today!

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Updated flooring
• Skylights

Tags

• PRIMARY SUITE
• GARDEN TUB
• OPEN KITCHEN
• SKYLIGHTS
• UPDATED FLOORING
• MODERN LIGHT FIXTURES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a monthly fee of $525; HOA fee includes water, sewer, and trash

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 garage spaces; Garage door opener; Oversized garage; Concrete parking/driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Rectangular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Manufactured home layout (bedroom details not specified)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Skylight(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-127 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $82k (21.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.1% in Bismarck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#5 in ND, #2,213 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Bismarck 1 (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #25 of 53 in ND (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise Elementary School (math 58% / reading 52%, grade C, #38 of 236 statewide, top 16%, 490 students, 14% FRL); Simle Middle School (math 34% / reading 39%, grade F, #22 of 35 statewide, top 62%, 1,040 students, 20% FRL); South Central Alternative High School (94 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 45% FRL vs 19% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.8%/yr); 128 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 259 units permitted in Burleigh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $725 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burleigh County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 40% of rent.

Recommended offer $82,405 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.20%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $58,880
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4303 Patriot Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,280 (0%)	4mo	$64,900	$51	89
4117 W Arlington Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,280 (0%)	1mo	$49,900	$39	86
5018 Sumter Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,280 (0%)	5mo	$105,000	$82	84
4755 British Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-5%)	1mo	$54,000	$44	83
4773 British Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-5%)	8mo	$115,000	$95	77
4206 Patriot Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-5%)	2mo	$79,900	$66	76
4731 British Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-5%)	11mo	$55,000	$45	74
4202 Patriot Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-5%)	11mo	$65,000	$53	74
5051 Redcoat Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-5%)	10mo	$56,000	$46	73
2500 Centennial Rd Lot 240	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,280 (0%)	2mo	$45,900	$36	65
2500 Centennial Rd #410	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,424 (+11%)	1mo	$49,000	$34	56
2500 Centennial Rd #244	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,446 (+13%)	5mo	$60,000	$41	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-17,869
• Equity at exit: $15,641

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $6,804
• Equity at exit: $9,070

Cash invested: $29,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58501

• Rents YoY: 10.8%
• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,315 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $567/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$525
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $-127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,476

Max offer price $82,405

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-68	-5% $-98	+0% $-127	+5% $-157	+10% $-187
Rent	-10% $-231	-5% $-179	+0% $-127	+5% $-75	+10% $-23
Rate	-1.0pp $-75	-0.5pp $-101	base $-127	+0.5pp $-155	+1.0pp $-182

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,225
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3504 French St Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.5	966	$1,795	$1.86	23d	1	0.84mi
1511 Sharloh Loop Bismarck, ND	3.0	2.5	1728	$2,050	$1.19	23d	1	1.24mi
3103 E Calgary Ave Bismarck, ND	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1079	$1,860	$1.72	23d	6	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $525 · $6,300/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $104,900 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   listed $104,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $567 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,028 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$461/yr (+$38/mo · 81.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,778
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$567
• − Insurance: −$524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,262
• − Management: −$1,262
• − HOA: −$6,300
• − Depreciation: −$3,052
• Taxable loss: −$3,066
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$736
• After-tax cash flow: $-792/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bismarck 1
• NCES district ID: 3800014
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,649
• Composite: 36.76/100
• National rank: #4577
• State rank: #25 of 53 in ND

Livability — Bismarck

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #2213

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bismarck, ND
• County: Burleigh County · 97,300 people
• City population: 97,300
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• Population (ZIP): 29,405
• Household income: $68,755
• Rent vs Own: 37.3% rent · 62.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 865.0

Population outlook (Burleigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,359 people
• By 2030: 133,047 · +11.5%
• By 2040: 161,545 · +35.3%
• By 2050: 191,960 · +60.8%
• By 2075: 274,569 · +130.0%
• By 2100: 350,910 · +194.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Native American 5% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Burleigh

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.5% · R 70.7% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.7pp toward R · 2008: -23.6pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+40.2 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+32.1 2008: R+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.24%
• Current HPI: 218.67
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.82%
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

+16.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $104,900 GNMLS
• 2018-09-14 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 2018-07-23 Listed $89,900 GNMLS