4804 Rustic Ct E · Kathleen, FL 33810

$204,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 266 Days on market

Built 1985 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity is here– Fully Renovated! SELLER MOTIVATED Beautifully remodeled 4-bedroom, 2-bath home in a quiet Lakeland cul-de-sac! This move-in-ready property features a modern open layout, updated kitchen and bathrooms, fresh finishes throughout, and plenty of natural light. With a new price of $204,000, this is an incredible opportunity for first-time buyers and growing families. The seller is motivated and willing to assist with closing costs, making this home even more accessible and affordable. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, dining, and major roadways. This stunning renovation, unbeatable value, and great location make this home a rare find—schedule your sho

Key facts

• Spacious interiors
• Fully renovated
• Brand new plumbing

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• HIGH END FINISHES
• BRAND NEW PLUMBING
• BRAND NEW APPLIANCES
• SPACIOUS INTERIORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $204k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $204k).
• Recommended offer: $180k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#752 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 504 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 266 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $96k; list at $204k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 266 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.44%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-10,996
• Equity at exit: $30,417

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $17,458
• Equity at exit: $17,638

Cash invested: $57,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33810

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 504
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,119 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,070
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,986/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,671

Max offer price $204,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,000
• Closing costs: $6,120
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5138 Rollinglen Loop W Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	924	$1,400	$1.52	3d	1	0.43mi
3276 Mount Tabor Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	896	$1,195	$1.33	3d	1	0.76mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   status Active
3. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
4. 2026-01-22
   price $204,000
5. 2025-11-05
   price $209,000
6. 2025-09-17
   status Active
7. 2025-07-28
   status Pending
8. 2025-07-09
   status Active
9. 2025-07-08
   status Pending
10. 2025-05-25
    listed $212,900 Active
11. 2025-03-26
    historical
12. 2024-12-02
    listed $204,000 Active
13. 2024-11-13
    historical
14. 2024-06-11
    listed $237,699 Active
15. 2024-04-19
    price $249,900
16. 2024-03-10
    price $264,900
17. 2024-02-24
    price $269,900
18. 2024-02-02
    listed $285,000 Active
19. 2023-06-23
    soldstatus $96,300
20. 2010-01-06
    soldstatus $65,000
21. 2009-01-27
    soldstatus $32,000
22. 2007-11-20
    listed $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,986 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,986 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,434
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,427
• − Property taxes: −$1,986
• − Insurance: −$1,020
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,035
• − Management: −$2,035
• − Depreciation: −$5,935
• Taxable income: $997
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$239
• After-tax cash flow: $4,010/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Kathleen

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #752
• US rank: #16450

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kathleen, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 52,734
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,137
• Household income: $69,986
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1208.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.94%
• Current HPI: 320.7366
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+410.0% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $204,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $209,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-17 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-09 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-25 Listed $212,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-26 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-02 Listed $204,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-13 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-11 Listed $237,699 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-19 Price Changed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-10 Price Changed $264,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-24 Price Changed $269,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-02 Listed $285,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $96,300 Public Records
• 2010-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2009-01-27 Sold (MLS) $32,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-11-20 Listed $40,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+15.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,986 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.