10924 Key Haven Blvd · Jacksonville, FL 32218

$145,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1985 8,276 sqft lot Est $219k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come explore this single family, detached, brick home situated on a spacious lot within ''Wood Campus Place. '' This home features: split floor plan, living room, galley style kitchen, one car garage, and utility in the garage area. Enjoy convenient location and proximity to I-295 for commuting.

Key facts

• Split floor plan
• Proximity to i-295
• Convenient location

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• GALLEY STYLE KITCHEN
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• PROXIMITY TO I-295

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $339 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 728 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $145k implies a 205% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.02%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $219,440
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10924 Key Haven Blvd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,054 (+1%)	1mo	$145,000	$138	93
10955 Key Vega Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,040 (0%)	20mo	$239,000	$230	71
4242 Key Vega Dr S	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,153 (+11%)	16mo	$242,000	$210	63
4248 Key Vega Ct	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,184 (+14%)	11mo	$250,000	$211	54
10959 Naples Ct N	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,160 (+12%)	20mo	$282,000	$243	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-7,143
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,346
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32218

• Home prices YoY: -25.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 728
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,818 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$276 /mo · $3,317/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $339

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,389

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10881 Key Coral Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1304	$1,695	$1.30	23d	1	0.06mi
11075 Key Coral Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1470	$1,423	$0.97	3d	1	0.18mi
4212 Pointe Haven Dr N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1054	$1,800	$1.71	23d	1	0.25mi
10838 Naples Ct S Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,755	$1.37	23d	1	0.30mi
3216 Duane Ave Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	748	$1,098	$1.47	7d	1	1.24mi
10871 Copper Creek Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1457	$2,145	$1.47	14d	1	1.26mi
4819 Arrowsmith Rd Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,500	$1.17	14d	1	1.34mi
3025 Armstrong St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,461	$1.30	19d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   price $145,000
3. 2026-02-26
   status Active
4. 2026-02-26
   price $160,000
5. 2026-02-01
   historical
6. 2025-11-03
   listed $180,000 Active
7. 1985-03-01
   soldstatus $47,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,317 · $276/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,317 · $276/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,817
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$3,317
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,745
• − Management: −$1,745
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $1,944
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$467
• After-tax cash flow: $3,602/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 72,905
• Household income: $69,638
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2289.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.73%
• Current HPI: 262.2329
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.40%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+205.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $145,000 realMLS
• 2026-02-26 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $160,000 realMLS
• 2026-02-01 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2025-11-03 Listed $180,000 realMLS
• 1985-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $47,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+20.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,317 · +14.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.