16 Sheepshead Dr · Holiday City-Berkeley, NJ 08757

$284,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,153 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1984 6,098 sqft lot Est $330k · 14% under $39/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in Silver Ridge Westerly section adult community and located in close proximity to the clubhouse . Home is a 2 bed 1 bath & has a open front porch with attached 1 car garage. Home needs to be updated but once renovated could be a nice home to settle into. Home is being sold ''as is'' and buyer is responsible for all inspections & certifications. Homeowner must be 55 years or older & occupied by purchaser. Home also can not be rented or placed as an LLC. All offers must be submitted via PropOffers.com. Buyer's Agent is to pay a $175 Offer Management Fee at closing of any accepted offer.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Community pool
• Peaceful patio

Tags

• SUSSEX MODEL
• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• TREE-LINED BACKYARD
• PEACEFUL PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA present (Silver Ridge Westerly); Semi-annual association fee; HOA covers common area and pool; Community amenities include clubhouse, community room, pool, common area, jogging path, bocci, and common access

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Model: SUSSEX; Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Level topography

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Gas cooking; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the first floor)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Window treatments; Den; Dining room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Garage door opener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $54 ($654/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (11.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 5.2% in Holiday City-Berkeley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Central Regional School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #357 of 472 in NJ (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 491 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,524/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1010% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $285k implies a 128% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $252,396 (11.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.82%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $329,758
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37 Zeeland Dr	0.25mi	2/1.0	1,153 (0%)	1mo	$292,000	$253	88
30 Zeeland Dr	0.21mi	2/1.0	1,153 (0%)	3mo	$330,000	$286	88
27 Whitaker Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,153 (0%)	1mo	$390,000	$338	87
7 Whitmore Ct	0.55mi	2/1.0	1,122 (-3%)	4mo	$275,000	$245	66
15 Brookfield Ct	0.53mi	2/1.5	1,117 (-3%)	4mo	$260,000	$233	65
162 Castleton Dr	0.72mi	2/1.0	1,153 (0%)	3mo	$263,900	$229	64
1 Miles Pond Rd	0.62mi	2/1.0	1,105 (-4%)	2mo	$164,000	$148	62
135 Northumberland Dr	0.73mi	2/1.0	1,139 (-1%)	2mo	$335,000	$294	62
12 Norfolk Dr	0.75mi	2/1.5	1,157 (+0%)	2mo	$335,000	$290	61
89 Carlisle Rd	0.66mi	2/1.5	1,121 (-3%)	3mo	$350,000	$312	60
48 Whitaker Dr	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,318 (+14%)	2mo	$410,000	$311	55
13 Shaw Ct	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,229 (+7%)	4mo	$299,000	$243	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-42,677
• Equity at exit: $42,480

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-32,614
• Equity at exit: $24,633

Cash invested: $79,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08757

• Active inventory: 491
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,524 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax from tax record: −$288 /mo · $3,452/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$39
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,455

Max offer price $284,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $216	-5% $135	+0% $54	+5% $-26	+10% $-107
Rent	-10% $-145	-5% $-45	+0% $54	+5% $154	+10% $254
Rate	-1.0pp $198	-0.5pp $127	base $54	+0.5pp $-19	+1.0pp $-94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,225
• Closing costs: $8,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10 Purnell St Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1232	$2,300	$1.87	2d	1	1.12mi
510 Jamaica Blvd Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1264	$2,500	$1.98	2d	1	1.20mi
159 Fort de France Ave Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1440	$2,475	$1.72	7d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $39 · $468/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $284,900 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $284,900 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $284,900 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $284,900 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $284,900 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $284,900 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $284,900 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $284,900 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 664-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $284,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,452 · $288/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,273 · $439/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,821/yr (+$152/mo · 52.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,288
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,959
• − Property taxes: −$3,452
• − Insurance: −$1,424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,423
• − Management: −$2,423
• − HOA: −$468
• − Depreciation: −$8,288
• Taxable loss: −$4,150
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$996
• After-tax cash flow: $1,650/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3402910
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,676
• Composite: 25.59/100
• National rank: #7422
• State rank: #357 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Holiday City-Berkeley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday City-Berkeley, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 35,652
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 36,087
• Household income: $58,319
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1010.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -429.32%
• Current HPI: 305.1341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+411.1% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $284,900 MOMLS
• 2020-05-04 Sold (MLS) $125,000 MOMLS
• 2020-03-16 Pending — MOMLS
• 2020-02-18 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2020-01-17 Pending — MOMLS
• 2020-01-04 Price Changed $124,900 MOMLS
• 2019-06-06 Listed $149,900 MOMLS
• 2019-03-22 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2019-01-25 Price Changed $149,900 MOMLS
• 2018-12-21 Listed $159,900 MOMLS
• 2006-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $196,000 Public Records
• 1998-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records
• 1998-06-01 Sold (MLS) $78,000 MOMLS
• 1998-03-29 Delisted — MOMLS
• 1998-02-14 Listed $82,000 MOMLS
• 1992-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 1984-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $55,744 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,452 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.