218 North Dr · Bodfish, CA 93205

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · Manufactured · 73 Days on market

Built 1959 10,019 sqft lot $150/sqft · 60% above area ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wow, this 2-bedroom, 1.5 bath home has a HUGE 2 car garage with a bathroom and shower added, also a huge laundry room with lots of storage space, dual pack AC unit, hook-ups for trailer with sewer dump, gas and electric, game room, bonus room, shed, studded oak trees. The hone is surrounded by Mountains and trees with a wraparound driveway, one of the bedrooms doesn't have a closet but can be used for one. Close to the lake and town. Great place to retire with only 3 stop lights in the entire Kern River Valley!!!

Key facts

• Dual pack ac unit
• Laundry room
• Bonus room

Tags

• 2 CAR GARAGE
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• STORAGE SPACE
• DUAL PACK AC UNIT
• GAME ROOM
• BONUS ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $537 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 5.9% in Bodfish — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,207 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living B+; Watch: housing D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Kernville Union Elementary (rural): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,128 of 1,400 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (9.3% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (9.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 7795% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 11→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.67%
• DSCR: 2.36
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $46,800
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: 60.26%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
412 Park Way	0.13mi	1/1.0 (-1)	510 (+2%)	6mo	$58,000	$114	80
14 Park Way	0.20mi	2/1.0	550 (+10%)	20mo	$47,500	$86	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.33% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.41×
• Total profit: $71,583
• Equity at exit: $63,909

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.72×
• Total profit: $183,109
• Equity at exit: $134,109

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93205

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,269 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $493/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $537

Break-even live

Break-even rent $589

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $579	-5% $558	+0% $537	+5% $516	+10% $494
Rent	-10% $437	-5% $487	+0% $537	+5% $587	+10% $637
Rate	-1.0pp $575	-0.5pp $556	base $537	+0.5pp $517	+1.0pp $498

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $75,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,000 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $69,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $73,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $73,000 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $73,000 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $73,000 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $82,000 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $82,000 Active 55 DOM
16. 2026-04-13
    price $82,000 518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    Wow, this 2-bedroom, 1.5 bath home has a HUGE 2 car garage with a bathroom and shower added, also a huge laundry room with lots of storage space, dual pack AC unit, hook-ups for trailer with sewer dump, gas and electric, game room, bonus room, shed, studded oak trees. The hone is surrounded by Mountains and trees with a wraparound driveway, one of the bedrooms doesn't have a closet but can be used for one. Close to the lake and town. Great place to retire with only 3 stop lights in the entire Kern River Valley!!!

17. 2026-03-26
    historical $950
18. 2026-03-26
    listed $950
19. 2026-03-25
    listed $89,000 Active 518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    Wow, this 2-bedroom, 1.5 bath home has a HUGE 2 car garage with a bathroom and shower added, also a huge laundry room with lots of storage space, dual pack AC unit, hook-ups for trailer with sewer dump, gas and electric, game room, bonus room, shed, studded oak trees. The hone is surrounded by Mountains and trees with a wraparound driveway, one of the bedrooms doesn't have a closet but can be used for one. Close to the lake and town. Great place to retire with only 3 stop lights in the entire Kern River Valley!!!

20. 2025-03-08
    historical $800
21. 2025-02-10
    listed $800
22. 2025-02-01
    historical $800
23. 2024-12-17
    listed $800
24. 2023-11-01
    historical $800
25. 2023-09-22
    listed $800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $493 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $570 · $48/mo
• Expected delta: +$77/yr (+$6/mo · 15.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 11 d/yr ≥93°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,227
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$493
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,218
• − Management: −$1,218
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $5,539
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,329
• After-tax cash flow: $5,112/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kernville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0619590
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $29,896
• Composite: 25.91/100
• National rank: #12766
• State rank: #1128 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bodfish

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1207
• US rank: #26114

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bodfish, CA
• Population (ZIP): 2,191

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.33%
• Current HPI: 447.8088
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-7.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $82,000 SSMLS
• 2026-03-26 Rental Removed $950 SSMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed for Rent $950 SSMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $89,000 SSMLS
• 2025-03-08 Rental Removed $800 SSMLS
• 2025-02-10 Listed for Rent $800 SSMLS
• 2025-02-01 Rental Removed $800 SSMLS
• 2024-12-17 Listed for Rent $800 SSMLS
• 2023-11-01 Rental Removed $800 SSMLS
• 2023-09-22 Listed for Rent $800 SSMLS

Property tax history

-4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $493 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.