545 Melbourne Trl · Graford, TX 76449

$6,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,571 sqft · Condo public records · 519 Days on market

Built 2003 $4/sqft · 99% below area $77/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1 Week of Interval Ownership in the luxury Vista Point Units in The Cliffs Resort on Possum Kingdom Lake directly above The Cliffs Marina. High end finishes throughout. All resort amenities available.

Key facts

• $77 HOA
• Pool
• Built 2003

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $6,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$450,407) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $6k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($24k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $6k).
• Recommended offer: $5k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 398.1% vs local median 1.3% in Graford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#856 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Palo Pinto ISD (rural): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #86 of 1,141 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 465 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Palo Pinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $41 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $180 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palo Pinto County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $2k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 519 days — a 12% lower offer ($5k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $5,280 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 519 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 43.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 398.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 1399.45%
• DSCR: 63.27
• GRM: 0.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $450,407
• List price: $6,000
• Delta: -98.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 74.75×
• Total profit: $123,899
• Equity at exit: $895

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 161.07×
• Total profit: $268,922
• Equity at exit: $519

Cash invested: $1,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76449

• Home prices YoY: -27.7%
• Active inventory: 465
• Price-to-rent: 0.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,630 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$31
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$8 /mo · $90/yr
• Insurance: −$2
• HOA: −$77
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $1,959

Break-even live

Break-even rent $150

Max offer price $6,000

Occupancy floor 20%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,500
• Closing costs: $180
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $77 · $924/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $6,000 Active 519 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $6,000 Active 518 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $6,000 Active 517 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $6,000 Active 516 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $6,000 Active 515 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $6,000 Active 513 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $6,000 Active 512 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $6,000 Active 509 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $6,000 Active 508 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $6,000 Active 507 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $6,000 Active 506 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $6,000 Active 503 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $6,000 Active 502 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $6,000 Active 501 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $6,000 Active 500 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $6,000 Active 499 DOM
17. 2025-01-16
    listed $6,000 Active 202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (202 chars)

    1 Week of Interval Ownership in the luxury Vista Point Units in The Cliffs Resort on Possum Kingdom Lake directly above The Cliffs Marina. High end finishes throughout. All resort amenities available.

18. 2025-01-01
    historical
19. 2024-07-03
    listed $6,000 Active
20. 2022-12-14
    soldstatus Closed
21. 2022-09-17
    listed $10,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,560
• − Mortgage interest: −$336
• − Property taxes: −$90
• − Insurance: −$30
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,525
• − Management: −$2,525
• − HOA: −$924
• − Depreciation: −$175
• Taxable income: $24,956
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,989
• After-tax cash flow: $17,521/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palo Pinto ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834140
• Math proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $46,807
• Composite: 56.3/100
• National rank: #2499
• State rank: #86 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Graford

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #856
• US rank: #15394

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,157

Population outlook (Palo Pinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,500 people
• By 2030: 27,079 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 26,135 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 25,215 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 23,416 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 20,300 · -26.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Palo Pinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.1) · D 16.1% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.2pp · 2024: -67.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.1 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+64.1 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+48.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.53%
• Current HPI: 241.6435
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-40.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-01-16 Listed $6,000 NTREIS
• 2025-01-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-07-03 Listed $6,000 NTREIS
• 2022-12-14 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-09-17 Listed $10,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $13,590 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.