23145 65th St E · Lake Tapps, WA 98321

$875,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,366 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 139 Days on market

Built 2021 9,540 sqft lot $260/sqft · 10% below area Est $975k · 10% under $50/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Your second chance at the most coveted 6 bedroom floor plan in Elk Run, at a massively discounted price! Step inside to be greeted by soaring vaulted ceilings, expansive natural light, and a layout designed for true multi-generational living. The main floor features two full bedroom suites—a luxurious Primary Suite plus a private Junior Suite ideal for extended household needs or long-term guests. The gourmet kitchen stands out with modern illuminated cabinetry, a butler’s pantry, and a massive quartz island perfect for entertaining. Oversized sliders open up to a large fully fenced yard with a covered outdoor living space, extending your hosting area year-round. Upstairs, gen

Key facts

• Butler's pantry
• Cozy covered patio
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• VAULTED CEILINGS
• MAIN-LEVEL PRIMARY SUITE
• BUTLER'S PANTRY
• MASSIVE QUARTZ ISLAND
• COZY COVERED PATIO
• FULLY FENCED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $875k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-968 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $704k (19.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $610k (30.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $610k (30.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.7% in Lake Tapps — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#289 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• White River School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #35 of 291 in WA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 235 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($770k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $610,000 (30.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.74%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $975,222
• List price: $875,000
• Delta: -10.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22802 61st St E #294	0.21mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,445 (+2%)	2mo	$968,725	$281	77
22806 61st St E #295	0.20mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,372 (+0%)	10mo	$1,002,509	$297	76
22816 64th Ln E	0.16mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,444 (+2%)	10mo	$940,000	$273	74
6202 229th Ave E #305	0.22mi	4/2.5	3,086 (-8%)	2mo	$899,000	$291	72
6602 232nd Ave E	0.09mi	5/2.5 (+1)	3,093 (-8%)	5mo	$799,000	$258	71
22828 61st St E #300	0.23mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,445 (+2%)	11mo	$976,875	$284	70
6109 232nd Ave E	0.25mi	4/2.5	3,086 (-8%)	8mo	$899,000	$291	65
23106 62nd St E	0.18mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,988 (-11%)	1mo	$944,175	$316	65
22801 61st St E #293	0.23mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,983 (-11%)	2mo	$930,000	$312	64
6903 232nd Ave E	0.29mi	5/2.5 (+1)	3,169 (-6%)	12mo	$1,020,000	$322	60
23211 57th St E	0.54mi	4/2.5	3,033 (-10%)	9mo	$957,395	$316	49
7505 225th Avenue Ct E	0.69mi	5/2.5 (+1)	3,156 (-6%)	12mo	$745,000	$236	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-203,507
• Equity at exit: $130,465

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-256,871
• Equity at exit: $75,654

Cash invested: $245,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98321

• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,100 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,589
• Tax from tax record: −$784 /mo · $9,406/yr
• Insurance: −$365
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,281
• Net cashflow: $-968

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,325

Max offer price $704,002

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $218,750
• Closing costs: $26,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23056 64th Street Ct E Unit 1 Buckley, WA	5.0	3.5	3358	$6,100	$1.82	43d	1	0.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $875,000 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $875,000 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $875,000 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $875,000 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $875,000 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $875,000 Active 133 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $875,000 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $875,000 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $875,000 Active 128 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $875,000 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $875,000 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $875,000 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $875,000 Active 122 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $875,000 Active 121 DOM
15. 2026-04-21
    status Active
16. 2026-04-21
    price $875,000
17. 2026-03-21
    status Pending
18. 2026-02-12
    price $860,000
19. 2025-12-30
    listed $875,000 Active
20. 2021-07-06
    soldstatus $777,322 Closed
21. 2021-05-06
    status Pending
22. 2020-12-31
    listed $750,950
23. 2020-12-31
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,406 · $784/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,406 · $784/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $73,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$49,014
• − Property taxes: −$9,406
• − Insurance: −$4,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,856
• − Management: −$5,856
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$25,455
• Taxable loss: −$27,361
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,567
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,049/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: White River School District
• NCES district ID: 5309780
• Math proficiency: 57% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $71,369
• Composite: 56.68/100
• National rank: #2423
• State rank: #35 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lake Tapps

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #10068

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,601

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Italian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -206.67%
• Current HPI: 310.6568
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+16.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $875,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-21 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $860,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-30 Listed $875,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-06 Sold (MLS) $777,322 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-06 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-31 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-31 Listed $750,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+44.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $9,406 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.