445 Morton Rd · Vermilion, OH 44089

$199,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,346 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1970 5,227 sqft lot Est $217k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a home with deeded beach access to Elberta Beach that doesn't cost an arm and a leg? Maybe a year round residence or a summer home to get out of the Florida heat? Take a look at this oh-so-cool block constructed 2 bed, 2 bath Cape Cod with an open floor plan! All appliances stay along with everything else you see inside, right down to the pots and pans. Totally turn key! Outside you will find a 1 car attached garage making bringing home groceries super easy and is equipped with 220V for those bigger jobs. The shed is plenty big and has a workshop area. And a completely fenced in back yard is ready for any furry friends you have and has served as boat storage in the past! 3 trees were removed awhile back and the stucco exterior was just redone too! The home is topped off with a metal roof that takes away future roof replacement worries. Location is everything, and this home delivers! Bike to downtown Vermilion's shops, restaurants, hardware store, marinas, waterfront attractions, and of course, your favorite ice cream stop. Spend your days at the beach, watching boats come and go, or enjoying all that this vibrant lakeside community has to offer. Don't miss this opportunity to own an affordable slice of Vermilion living. Call today to schedule your private showing!

Key facts

• Deeded beach access
• Open floor plan
• Attached garage

Tags

• DEEDED BEACH ACCESS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• WORKSHOP AREA
• FENCED IN BACK YARD
• BOAT STORAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Stucco construction; Metal roof; Partially finished basement
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Stucco exterior; 0.12-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Dryer; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Washer; Partially finished basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $581 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 5.0% in Vermilion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in OH, #1,481 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Vermilion Local (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #316 of 656 in OH (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,098 units permitted in Lorain County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.45%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $216,706
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4276 Ford Ln	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,383 (+3%)	10mo	$290,000	$210	71
267 Woodridge Rd	0.70mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,368 (+2%)	6mo	$220,000	$161	53
296 Fairfax Rd	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,339 (-0%)	14mo	$169,900	$127	50
291 Aldrich Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (+4%)	9mo	$129,000	$92	48
S/L 062 Woodlands Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,465 (+9%)	15mo	$339,900	$232	40
816 Vermilion Rd	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,472 (+9%)	16mo	$199,900	$136	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $4,536
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $51,314
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44089

• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,274 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,008/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $581

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,539

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1041 Dogwood Ln Vermilion, OH	2.0	2.0	1457	$2,274	$1.56	1d	12	0.53mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $199,900 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,008 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,063 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,055/yr (+$88/mo · 104.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 47% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,288
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,008
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,183
• − Management: −$2,183
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $3,902
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$936
• After-tax cash flow: $6,034/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vermilion Local
• NCES district ID: 3904682
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $52,091
• Composite: 49.61/100
• National rank: #1981
• State rank: #316 of 656 in OH

Livability — Vermilion

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #96
• US rank: #1481

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vermilion, OH
• County: Erie · 78,232 people
• Metro: Sandusky, OH
• Population (ZIP): 15,873
• Household income: $72,045
• Rent vs Own: 18.6% rent · 81.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 5.8

Population outlook (Lorain County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,924 people
• By 2030: 317,546 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 317,962 · +1.0%
• By 2050: 312,872 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 301,806 · -4.2%
• By 2100: 278,271 · -11.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lorain

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.7) · D 46.7% · R 52.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.9pp · 2024: -5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.7 2020: R+2.5 2016: R+0.3 2012: D+14.4 2008: D+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.76%
• Current HPI: 206.8223
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+146.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $199,900 MLSNOW
• 2026-06-08 Listed $199,900 FAOR
• 2025-08-01 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2025-05-01 Listed $209,900 MLSNOW
• 2019-06-19 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2019-06-11 Listed $81,000 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,008 · -36.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.