3001 Saint Thomas Ln · The Villages, FL 32162

$304,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,520 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 2001 7,753 sqft lot Est $351k · 13% under ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

If you are looking for The Villages active lifestyle, look no further. This lovely 2Bd/2Ba in The Villages of Sumpter is exactly what you are seeking. It has an unbelievably spacious Living/Dining area offering an abundance of light adjacent to your gormet kitchen and breakfast nook. It has a primary bedroom with walk-in closet and an ensuite bath. It even comes with an office! The home can use some TLC but is priced right. Hurry, this one will go fast!

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Office
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• ENSUITE BATH
• OFFICE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.18 acres; Total acreage less than 1/4 acre
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Located in a senior community; CDD present

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; South-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area: 2,200 total building area
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area located in the garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $304k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $278 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (9.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $276k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 550 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $275,562 (9.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.91%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $351,120
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3040 Batally Ct	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (-0%)	2mo	$350,000	$231	88
3017 Hillside Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,520 (0%)	1mo	$334,900	$220	87
3067 Melville Loop	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,527 (+0%)	1mo	$370,000	$242	84
3025 ST Thomas Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (-8%)	1mo	$397,000	$283	80
3001 Sandy Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,542 (+1%)	0mo	$320,220	$208	72
1253 Addison Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,437 (-6%)	2mo	$348,000	$242	70
3089 Burbank Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,653 (+9%)	2mo	$410,000	$248	67
1270 Northbrook Pl	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,454 (-4%)	2mo	$315,300	$217	67
2573 Caribe Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,472 (-3%)	1mo	$320,000	$217	64
1277 Northbrook Pl	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,653 (+9%)	1mo	$308,000	$186	62
935 Kenova Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,572 (+3%)	0mo	$397,000	$253	55
3562 Auburndale Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,392 (-8%)	2mo	$300,000	$216	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-29,090
• Equity at exit: $45,327

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $7,862
• Equity at exit: $26,284

Cash invested: $85,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 550
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,756 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,594
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,142/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$579
• Net cashflow: $278

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,404

Max offer price $304,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,000
• Closing costs: $9,120
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3057 Saint Thomas Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	2044	$2,850	$1.39	21d	1	0.07mi
1129 Santa Cruz Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1102	$2,350	$2.13	21d	1	0.17mi
2829 Burgos Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,850	$1.60	21d	1	0.26mi
888 Radclife Berea Pl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1288	$4,200	$3.26	21d	1	0.57mi
971 Kingmont Ter The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$3,400	$2.44	21d	1	0.62mi
3301 Archer Ave The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	2117	$5,000	$2.36	21d	1	0.69mi
1648 Belle Grove Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$4,250	$3.75	21d	1	0.73mi
3207 Woodridge Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1148	$4,200	$3.66	21d	1	0.76mi
2909 Meadow Lawn Ln The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$4,300	$3.80	21d	1	0.81mi
1808 Peachtree Ave The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1182	$2,500	$2.12	21d	1	0.94mi
3545 Idlewood Loop The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1240	$4,500	$3.63	21d	1	0.98mi
3260 Atwell Ave The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$2,500	$1.80	21d	1	1.02mi
3292 Riverton Rd The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1143	$2,100	$1.84	21d	1	1.08mi
3489 Cambria Cir The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1188	$1,745	$1.47	21d	1	1.10mi
6367 NE 118th Ave The Villages, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1645	$1,925	$1.17	21d	10	1.12mi
12580 NE 49th Dr Oxford, FL	3.0	2.0	1940	$2,400	$1.24	21d	1	1.13mi
17713 SE 95th Cir Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,000	$1.38	21d	1	1.37mi
12388 NE 48th Loop Oxford, FL	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,700	$1.19	21d	1	1.42mi
2126 Sansores St Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1748	$3,700	$2.12	21d	1	1.44mi
8544 SE 177th Bartram Loop The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1265	$1,900	$1.50	21d	1	1.45mi
12020 Brush Hill Rd Oxford, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	947	$1,835	$1.94	21d	15	1.47mi
424 Bowman Ter The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$5,400	$2.70	21d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $304,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $304,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $304,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $304,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $304,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $304,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $304,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $304,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $304,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $304,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 458-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $304,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,142 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,523 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: +$381/yr (+$32/mo · 17.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,067
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,029
• − Property taxes: −$2,142
• − Insurance: −$1,520
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,645
• − Management: −$2,645
• − Depreciation: −$8,844
• Taxable loss: −$1,758
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$422
• After-tax cash flow: $3,753/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-24.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $304,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-06 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-26 Price Changed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-22 Price Changed $335,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-19 Price Changed $345,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-10 Price Changed $355,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-17 Price Changed $369,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-08 Price Changed $379,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-02 Price Changed $389,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-31 Listed $399,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,142 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.