871 Reflections Loop E · Winter Haven, FL 33884

$213,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,264 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 183 Days on market

Built 2002 6,325 sqft lot $22/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful opportunity home with 3 bedrooms plus a den easily convertible into another room. The main room with its bathroom. This property is ideal for both investment and housing, located in a very quiet and pleasant area, perfect for those seeking comfort and quality of life. Very close to Legoland The property offers spacious and functional spaces, a large backyard and a comfortable environment that invites you to feel at home from the first moment. It is ideal to live comfortably, enjoy with your family and create new memories in a safe and welcoming environment. In addition, the owner is highly motivated to sell, which makes this property an opportunity that you cannot miss.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Functional spaces
• Quiet area

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• QUIET AREA
• FUNCTIONAL SPACES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Unit located on floor 1 (if applicable)
• Financial info: No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $22.50; annual fee $270); HOA approval required; Pets allowed; Association name to be determined

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available and connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; Faces east; Completed condition; Living area 1,264 square feet; Building area 1,820 square feet
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Built on slab foundation; Approximately 0.15 acre lot
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Slab foundation
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in kitchen; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $213k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $257 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (8.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chain of Lakes Elementary School (math 63% / reading 60%, grade B, #634 of 2,144 statewide, top 30%, 1,130 students, 37% FRL); Lake Region High School (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #570 of 667 statewide, top 86%, 1,545 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 680 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $33k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $213k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,440 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.17%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-20,368
• Equity at exit: $31,759

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-5,566
• Equity at exit: $18,416

Cash invested: $59,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33884

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 680
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,942 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,117
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $593/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$22
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $257

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,617

Max offer price $213,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $377	-5% $317	+0% $257	+5% $197	+10% $136
Rent	-10% $104	-5% $180	+0% $257	+5% $334	+10% $410
Rate	-1.0pp $364	-0.5pp $311	base $257	+0.5pp $202	+1.0pp $146

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,250
• Closing costs: $6,390
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7903 Waterview Way Unit 7903 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	930	$1,600	$1.72	24d	1	0.02mi
5202 Waterview Way #5202 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	930	$1,750	$1.88	24d	1	0.13mi
616 Crystals Blvd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1575	$1,900	$1.21	24d	1	0.22mi
3110 Gowan Dr Winter Haven, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,841	$1.83	15d	24	0.26mi
715 Magnolia Pl Unit 715 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,650	$1.53	24d	1	0.42mi
1015 Lake Forest Blvd Winter Haven, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	929	$2,175	$2.34	3d	24	0.44mi
415 Laurel Cove Way Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1230	$1,725	$1.40	4d	1	0.49mi
612 Heather Glen Loop Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1709	$2,000	$1.17	24d	1	0.72mi
5608 Lake Fox Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$2,400	$1.61	24d	1	0.81mi
206 Kingshill Ct SE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,800	$1.23	4d	1	0.94mi
1015 Mahaffey Rd Winter Haven, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1106	$1,948	$1.76	24d	1	1.01mi
4025 Lake Ned Village Cir Winter Haven, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,800	$1.76	4d	8	1.08mi
2108 Jonathan Ln Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1792	$1,975	$1.10	24d	1	1.09mi
133 Lameraux Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$2,550	$1.50	24d	1	1.16mi
2066 Katie Ct Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1802	$2,055	$1.14	15d	1	1.19mi
3904 Osprey Pointe Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1709	$1,950	$1.14	24d	1	1.20mi
1019 Mockingbird Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,650	$0.99	15d	1	1.20mi
4480 Strathmore Dr Lake Wales, FL	2.0	2.0	1523	$1,700	$1.12	12d	1	1.25mi
219 Cloverdale Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,300	$1.24	24d	1	1.30mi
2872 Attwater Loop Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1517	$2,000	$1.32	14d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $22 · $264/yr

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $213,000 Active 183 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $213,000 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $213,000 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $213,000 Active 180 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $213,000 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $213,000 Active 175 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $213,000 Active 174 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $213,000 Active 173 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $246,000 Active 172 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $246,000 Active 169 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $246,000 Active 167 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $246,000 Active 166 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $246,000 Active 165 DOM
14. 2025-12-17
    listed $246,000 Active
15. 2025-03-07
    historical
16. 2025-01-07
    price $270,000
17. 2024-11-26
    price $280,000
18. 2024-09-21
    listed $290,000 Active
19. 2023-07-11
    historical
20. 2023-07-11
    historical
21. 2023-04-18
    listed $285,000 Active
22. 2023-03-22
    listed $285,000 Active
23. 2023-03-03
    historical
24. 2023-01-18
    price $279,000
25. 2022-12-02
    listed $285,000 Active
26. 2022-11-03
    historical
27. 2022-07-05
    price $1,920
28. 2022-07-04
    price $290,000
29. 2022-06-08
    status Active
30. 2022-06-01
    status Active
31. 2022-05-27
    price $299,000
32. 2022-05-06
    listed $319,000 Active
33. 2017-10-11
    soldstatus $140,000
34. 2017-10-04
    soldstatus $140,000 Sold
35. 2017-09-18
    status Pending
36. 2017-06-29
    listed $148,500 Active
37. 2002-03-27
    soldstatus $99,700
38. 2000-09-21
    soldstatus $15,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $593 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,768 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,175/yr (+$98/mo · 197.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,303
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,931
• − Property taxes: −$593
• − Insurance: −$1,065
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,864
• − Management: −$1,864
• − HOA: −$264
• − Depreciation: −$6,196
• Taxable loss: −$476
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$114
• After-tax cash flow: $3,197/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,561
• Household income: $70,443
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 949.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.69%
• Current HPI: 260.1421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1487.1% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-17 Listed $246,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-07 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-07 Price Changed $270,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-26 Price Changed $280,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-21 Listed $290,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-11 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2023-04-18 Listed $285,000 MARMLS
• 2023-03-22 Listed $285,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-18 Price Changed $279,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-02 Listed $285,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-05 Price Changed $1,920 RENT.
• 2022-07-04 Price Changed $290,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-08 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-27 Price Changed $299,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-06 Listed $319,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2017-10-04 Sold (MLS) $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-29 Listed $148,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $99,700 Public Records
• 2000-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $15,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $593 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.