1575 Nistler Rd · Delta Junction, AK 99737

$2,500

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,100 sqft · SingleFamily · 641 Days on market

1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 640 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Exterior features: Located in Delta Junction (directions: in Delta Junction)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Rural estate zoning

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $2,500 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$186,900) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $2k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $2k).
• Recommended offer: $2k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#32 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Delta-Greely School District (rural): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #2 of 21 in AK (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Delta Junction Elementary (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B, #19 of 156 statewide, top 12%, 359 students, 35% FRL); Delta Junction Junior High School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade D-, #13 of 36 statewide, top 37%, 166 students, 31% FRL); Delta Junction Senior High School (math 64% / reading 64%, grade B-, #3 of 61 statewide, top 5%, 165 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32 of equity ($17 loan paydown + $15 appreciation (0.6% local appreciation)).
• Southeast Fairbanks County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $700 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 641 days — a 12% lower offer ($2k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $2,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 641 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 63.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 596.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 2108.66%
• DSCR: 94.82
• GRM: 0.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $186,900
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2563 Nistler Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,800 (-14%)	23mo	$160,000	$89	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.58% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 112.95×
• Total profit: $78,363
• Equity at exit: $800

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 243.32×
• Total profit: $169,621
• Equity at exit: $1,023

Cash invested: $700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99737

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 0.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,579 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$13
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$3 /mo · $38/yr
• Insurance: −$1
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $1,230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $22

Max offer price $2,500

Occupancy floor 17%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $625
• Closing costs: $75
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $2,500 Active 641 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,500 Active 640 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,500 Active 639 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,500 Active 638 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,500 Active 637 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $2,500 Active 635 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $2,500 Active 634 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,500 Active 631 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,500 Active 630 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $2,500 Active 629 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $2,500 Active 628 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $2,500 Active 625 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,500 Active 624 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,500 Active 623 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,500 Active 622 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,500 Active 621 DOM
17. 2024-09-16
    price $2,500
18. 2024-09-16
    listed $2,500 Active
19. 2024-09-14
    listed $2,500,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,947
• − Mortgage interest: −$140
• − Property taxes: −$38
• − Insurance: −$12
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,516
• − Management: −$1,516
• − Depreciation: −$73
• Taxable income: $15,653
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,757
• After-tax cash flow: $11,004/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delta-Greely School District
• NCES district ID: 0200100
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $73,312
• Composite: 46.25/100
• National rank: #2483
• State rank: #2 of 21 in AK

Livability — Delta Junction

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #14026

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Delta Junction, AK
• Population (ZIP): 4,659

Population outlook (Southeast Fairbanks County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,279 people
• By 2030: 6,022 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 5,658 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 5,521 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 5,938 · -5.4%
• By 2100: 6,752 · +7.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 2% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 7% Subsaharan African 6% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 12% Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Southeast Fairbanks

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.58%
• Current HPI: 134.8903
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-99.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2024-09-16 Price Changed $2,500 GFBR
• 2024-09-16 Listed $2,500 GFBR
• 2024-09-14 Listed $2,500,000 GFBR