26 Circulo Diego Rivera · Tubac, AZ 85646

$357,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,644 sqft · Condo public records · 102 Days on market

Built 1999 $217/sqft · 22% below area Est $458k · 22% under $235/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is located in a desirable neighborhood, offering both privacy and convenience. Situated just a short distance from the scenic Juan Bautista Anza Trail. This charming residence features a cozy backyard with and an additional side courtyard, perfect for outdoor fun. Its prime location provides easy access to the Anza Park and dog park and is close to town for shopping, dining, and entertainment. Move-in ready!

Key facts

• Dog park
• Anza park
• Side courtyard

Tags

• COZY BACKYARD
• SIDE COURTYARD
• ANZA PARK
• DOG PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $357k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $589 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $357k).
• Recommended offer: $325k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.5% in Tubac — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#60 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing A; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458) (town): math 12% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #184 of 249 in AZ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-507 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $100k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($325k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $157k; list at $357k implies a 127% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $324,870 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.08%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $458,422
• List price: $357,000
• Delta: -22.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $24,796
• Equity at exit: $101,136

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $114,398
• Equity at exit: $119,573

Cash invested: $99,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85646

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,897 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,872
• Tax from tax record: −$233 /mo · $2,801/yr
• Insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$235
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$818
• Net cashflow: $589

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,151

Max offer price $357,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,250
• Closing costs: $10,710
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $235 · $2,820/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $357,000 Active 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $357,000 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $357,000 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $357,000 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $357,000 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $357,000 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $357,000 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $357,000 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $357,000 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $357,000 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $357,000 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $357,000 Active 86 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $357,000 Active 85 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $357,000 Active 84 DOM
15. 2026-03-02
    listed $357,000 Active 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is located in a desirable neighborhood, offering both privacy and convenience. Situated just a short distance from the scenic Juan Bautista Anza Trail. This charming residence features a cozy backyard with and an additional side courtyard, perfect for outdoor fun. Its prime location provides easy access to the Anza Park and dog park and is close to town for shopping, dining, and entertainment. Move-in ready!

16. 2025-05-07
    historical
17. 2025-03-28
    price $379,000
18. 2025-02-26
    price $385,000
19. 2025-01-02
    listed $392,000 Active
20. 2012-09-14
    soldstatus $157,000
21. 2012-09-14
    soldstatus $157,000
22. 2011-12-12
    listed $160,000
23. 2011-12-12
    listed $160,000
24. 2011-06-03
    historical
25. 2011-06-03
    historical
26. 2011-06-03
    historical
27. 2010-07-08
    listed $225,000
28. 2010-07-08
    listed $225,000
29. 2010-07-08
    listed $225,000
30. 2008-06-30
    historical
31. 2007-01-11
    listed $319,000
32. 1999-10-20
    soldstatus $187,195

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,801 · $233/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,801 · $233/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,766
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,998
• − Property taxes: −$2,801
• − Insurance: −$1,785
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,741
• − Management: −$3,741
• − HOA: −$2,820
• − Depreciation: −$10,385
• Taxable income: $1,494
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$359
• After-tax cash flow: $6,715/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458)
• NCES district ID: 0407520
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $48,019
• Composite: 16.84/100
• National rank: #9147
• State rank: #184 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tubac

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #10219

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tubac, AZ
• City population: 1,280
• Population (ZIP): 1,280

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,796 people
• By 2030: 42,097 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 34,224 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 26,014 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 18,165 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Italian 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: D (+18.6) · D 58.9% · R 40.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.6 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+47.1 2012: D+37.8 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.14%
• Current HPI: 298.5755
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+90.7% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Listed $357,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-05-07 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-03-28 Price Changed $379,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-02-26 Price Changed $385,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-01-02 Listed $392,000 MLSSAZ
• 2012-09-14 Sold (MLS) $157,000 MLSSAZ
• 2012-09-14 Sold (MLS) $157,000 MLSSAZ
• 2011-12-12 Listed $160,000 MLSSAZ
• 2011-12-12 Listed $160,000 MLSSAZ
• 2011-06-03 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2011-06-03 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2011-06-03 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2010-07-08 Listed $225,000 MLSSAZ
• 2010-07-08 Listed $225,000 MLSSAZ
• 2010-07-08 Listed $225,000 MLSSAZ
• 2008-06-30 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2007-01-11 Listed $319,000 MLSSAZ
• 1999-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $187,195 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,801 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.