7 Blizzard Trl · Carroll Valley, PA 17320

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,428 sqft · Other public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1985 0.52 ac lot $151/sqft · 31% below area Est $313k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this 3 bedroom two bath rancher in Carroll Valley. From the moment you step on the front porch you will see the charm of this home which offers a formal dining room, office and laundry room and spacious eat in kitchen. Get ready to finish this season entertaining outdoors with a generous size level lot and two tier back deck. This home truly is a joy to own!

Key facts

• 0.52-acre lot
• Public sewer
• Unfinished basement

Tags

• SINGLE LEVEL LIVING
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• 0.52-ACRE LOT
• WELL WATER
• PUBLIC SEWER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Ground rent paid annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Well water; Public sewer; 200+ amp electric service; Electric hot water
• Home design: Manufactured home; Shingle roof
• Construction: Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Level, cleared lot; Deck(s); Porch(es); Shed; Not located in a federal flood zone

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Built-in microwave; Electric oven/range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Full basement; Living room; Dining room; Laundry on main floor
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Main-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $59 ($707/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (7.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (7.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.8% in Carroll Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#1,177 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fairfield Area SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #215 of 539 in PA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Fairfield Area Hs (math 62%, 298 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 403 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $180k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,900 (7.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.17%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $312,644
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -31.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-31,037
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-21,988
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17320

• Home prices YoY: -7.1%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,999 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$303 /mo · $3,639/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,924

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
28 W Main St Fairfield, PA	3.0	2.5	1795	$1,999	$1.11	44d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 578-char remark
2. 2026-05-05
   listed $215,000 Active 578-char remark
3. 2020-11-06
   soldstatus $180,000
4. 2020-10-27
   soldstatus $180,000 Closed 376-char remark

   Show marketing remark (376 chars)

   Welcome home to this 3 bedroom two bath rancher in Carroll Valley. From the moment you step on the front porch you will see the charm of this home which offers a formal dining room, office and laundry room and spacious eat in kitchen. Get ready to finish this season entertaining outdoors with a generous size level lot and two tier back deck. This home truly is a joy to own!

5. 2020-09-28
   status Pending 376-char remark

   Show marketing remark (376 chars)

   Welcome home to this 3 bedroom two bath rancher in Carroll Valley. From the moment you step on the front porch you will see the charm of this home which offers a formal dining room, office and laundry room and spacious eat in kitchen. Get ready to finish this season entertaining outdoors with a generous size level lot and two tier back deck. This home truly is a joy to own!

6. 2020-09-18
   status Active 376-char remark

   Show marketing remark (376 chars)

   Welcome home to this 3 bedroom two bath rancher in Carroll Valley. From the moment you step on the front porch you will see the charm of this home which offers a formal dining room, office and laundry room and spacious eat in kitchen. Get ready to finish this season entertaining outdoors with a generous size level lot and two tier back deck. This home truly is a joy to own!

7. 2020-09-04
   status Pending 376-char remark

   Show marketing remark (376 chars)

   Welcome home to this 3 bedroom two bath rancher in Carroll Valley. From the moment you step on the front porch you will see the charm of this home which offers a formal dining room, office and laundry room and spacious eat in kitchen. Get ready to finish this season entertaining outdoors with a generous size level lot and two tier back deck. This home truly is a joy to own!

8. 2020-08-31
   listed $175,000 Active 376-char remark

   Show marketing remark (376 chars)

   Welcome home to this 3 bedroom two bath rancher in Carroll Valley. From the moment you step on the front porch you will see the charm of this home which offers a formal dining room, office and laundry room and spacious eat in kitchen. Get ready to finish this season entertaining outdoors with a generous size level lot and two tier back deck. This home truly is a joy to own!

9. 1999-07-30
   soldstatus $104,000

   Show marketing remark (363 chars)

   THIS 3 BEDROOM, 2 BATH 1440 SQ. FT. RANCHER ON A LEVEL LOT IN CARROLL VALLEY HAS A FORMAL DINING ROOM, OFFICE, & LAUNDRY ROOM ON MAIL LEVEL. MANY APPLIANCES CONVEY. THE HOME FEATURES A FRONT PORCH, TWO LEVEL BACK DECK, 24 FOOT ABOVE GROUND POOL & STORAGE SHED. THE BASEMENT IS FULL SIZE. LOVELY LANDSCAPING. PUBLIC SEWER. (6X6 LAUNDRY, 10X11 OFFICE). |

10. 1999-07-30
    soldstatus $104,000

    Show marketing remark (363 chars)

    THIS 3 BEDROOM, 2 BATH 1440 SQ. FT. RANCHER ON A LEVEL LOT IN CARROLL VALLEY HAS A FORMAL DINING ROOM, OFFICE, & LAUNDRY ROOM ON MAIL LEVEL. MANY APPLIANCES CONVEY. THE HOME FEATURES A FRONT PORCH, TWO LEVEL BACK DECK, 24 FOOT ABOVE GROUND POOL & STORAGE SHED. THE BASEMENT IS FULL SIZE. LOVELY LANDSCAPING. PUBLIC SEWER. (6X6 LAUNDRY, 10X11 OFFICE). |

11. 1999-06-06
    historical

    Show marketing remark (363 chars)

    THIS 3 BEDROOM, 2 BATH 1440 SQ. FT. RANCHER ON A LEVEL LOT IN CARROLL VALLEY HAS A FORMAL DINING ROOM, OFFICE, & LAUNDRY ROOM ON MAIL LEVEL. MANY APPLIANCES CONVEY. THE HOME FEATURES A FRONT PORCH, TWO LEVEL BACK DECK, 24 FOOT ABOVE GROUND POOL & STORAGE SHED. THE BASEMENT IS FULL SIZE. LOVELY LANDSCAPING. PUBLIC SEWER. (6X6 LAUNDRY, 10X11 OFFICE). |

12. 1999-05-03
    listed $107,900

    Show marketing remark (363 chars)

    THIS 3 BEDROOM, 2 BATH 1440 SQ. FT. RANCHER ON A LEVEL LOT IN CARROLL VALLEY HAS A FORMAL DINING ROOM, OFFICE, & LAUNDRY ROOM ON MAIL LEVEL. MANY APPLIANCES CONVEY. THE HOME FEATURES A FRONT PORCH, TWO LEVEL BACK DECK, 24 FOOT ABOVE GROUND POOL & STORAGE SHED. THE BASEMENT IS FULL SIZE. LOVELY LANDSCAPING. PUBLIC SEWER. (6X6 LAUNDRY, 10X11 OFFICE). |

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,639 · $303/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,639 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,988
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,639
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,919
• − Management: −$1,919
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$2,862
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$687
• After-tax cash flow: $1,394/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairfield Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4209540
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $67,562
• Composite: 41.08/100
• National rank: #3573
• State rank: #215 of 539 in PA

Livability — Carroll Valley

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #1177
• US rank: #13724

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carroll Valley, PA
• City population: 8,103
• Population (ZIP): 8,103

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 102,494 people
• By 2030: 101,890 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 98,417 · -4.0%
• By 2050: 92,014 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 76,128 · -25.7%
• By 2100: 58,931 · -42.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.6) · D 32.7% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.1pp toward R · 2008: -19.6pp · 2024: -33.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+36.4 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+19.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.65%
• Current HPI: 294.5402
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+99.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $215,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2020-10-27 Sold (MLS) $180,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-09-28 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-09-18 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-09-04 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-08-31 Listed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1999-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $104,000 Public Records
• 1999-07-30 Sold (MLS) $104,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1999-06-06 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 1999-05-03 Listed $107,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,639 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.