5767 Jackrabbit Trl · Pinetop Country Club, AZ 85935

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 211 Days on market

Built 1974 5,227 sqft lot $191/sqft · 30% above area Est $226k · 22% over $3/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this one of a kind 3br/2ba BACKING The Indian Reservation!!! Watch the Deer, Elk, Turkey, etc from you back yard! This manufactured home has been updated Dual pane windows, shed, direct tv satellite dish, Snow roof and gable addition. Move in ready with a lot of furnishings staying. Many more upgrades in the documents tab. Come see this upgraded home!! .

Key facts

• Updated
• Gable addition
• Dual pane windows

Tags

• DUAL PANE WINDOWS
• DIRECT TV SATELLITE DISH
• SNOW ROOF
• GABLE ADDITION
• UPDATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $582 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $275k).
• Recommended offer: $242k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 2.9% in Pinetop Country Club — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#105 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397) (town): math 21% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #139 of 249 in AZ (top 56%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 252 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $77k; list at $275k implies a 257% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.07%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $226,307
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: 21.52%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4286 E Blue Ridge Loop	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	17mo	$275,000	$205	68
5892 Cougar Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+4%)	22mo	$250,000	$167	67
4322 Mark Twain Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	20mo	$274,400	$220	53
3668 Mark Twain Dr	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-13%)	12mo	$180,000	$144	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-7,635
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $40,558
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85935

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $847/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$3
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $582

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,064

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5368 Branding Iron Loop Pinetop, AZ	3.0	2.0	1781	$2,800	$1.57	44d	1	0.89mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $3 · $36/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $275,000 Active 211 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 210 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 209 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 208 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 207 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $275,000 Active 205 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $275,000 Active 204 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 201 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 200 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 199 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $275,000 Active 195 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 194 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 193 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 192 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 191 DOM
16. 2025-11-20
    listed $275,000 Active 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    Come see this one of a kind 3br/2ba BACKING The Indian Reservation!!! Watch the Deer, Elk, Turkey, etc from you back yard! This manufactured home has been updated Dual pane windows, shed, direct tv satellite dish, Snow roof and gable addition. Move in ready with a lot of furnishings staying. Many more upgrades in the documents tab. Come see this upgraded home!! .

17. 2025-08-01
    historical
18. 2024-12-14
    price $279,000
19. 2024-12-13
    price $279,000
20. 2024-12-13
    price $279,900
21. 2024-09-25
    price $289,900
22. 2024-09-25
    price $289,900
23. 2024-07-08
    listed $299,900 Active
24. 2003-06-13
    soldstatus $77,000
25. 2000-09-28
    soldstatus $50,000
26. 1995-01-10
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $847 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,815 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$968/yr (+$81/mo · 114.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$847
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,688
• − Management: −$2,688
• − HOA: −$36
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable income: $2,562
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$615
• After-tax cash flow: $6,366/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397)
• NCES district ID: 0406580
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,406
• Composite: 21.97/100
• National rank: #8213
• State rank: #139 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Pinetop Country Club

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #14564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pinetop Country Club, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 4,744

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Native American 11% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 4% French 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.71%
• Current HPI: 391.0283
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+816.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-20 Listed $275,000 WMMLS
• 2025-08-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-12-14 Price Changed $279,000 WMMLS
• 2024-12-13 Price Changed $279,000 ARMLS
• 2024-12-13 Price Changed $279,900 ARMLS
• 2024-09-25 Price Changed $289,900 WMMLS
• 2024-09-25 Price Changed $289,900 ARMLS
• 2024-07-08 Listed $299,900 ARMLS
• 2003-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 2000-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1995-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $847 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.