412 New Scotland Ave · Albany, NY 12208

$159,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,678 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1909 9,147 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable, updated colonial near schools, restaurants, banks and churches. 2 new baths, huge kitchen, large master, 1st floor den, garage w/loft for all your projects! Contingent on owner securing home of choice. Excellent Condition

Key facts

• Large eat in kitchen
• Enclosed rear porch
• Hwf floors

Tags

• LARGE EAT IN KITCHEN
• HWF FLOORS
• VINYL REPLACEMENT WINDOWS
• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• ENCLOSED REAR PORCH
• TWO-STORY CARRIAGE HOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $743 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 5.7% in Albany — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#129 in NY, #2,083 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Albany City School District (urban): math 37% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #543 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: New Scotland Elementary School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 473 students, 48% FRL); Albany High School (math 74% / reading 67%, grade B+, #710 of 1,100 statewide, top 65%, 2,676 students, 69% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 58% at this address vs 38% district-wide (+19 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Albany City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 99 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 675 units permitted in Albany County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Albany County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1909 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $157,501 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1909 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.91%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $322,176
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2 Glenwood St	0.09mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,824 (+9%)	2mo	$325,000	$178	75
16 Oakwood St	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,470 (-12%)	1mo	$350,000	$238	62
182 Whitehall Rd	0.66mi	4/1.5	1,624 (-3%)	3mo	$312,000	$192	62
151 Woodlawn Ave	0.34mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,486 (-11%)	0mo	$255,000	$172	59
59 Van Schoick Ave	0.29mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,500 (-11%)	2mo	$345,000	$230	58
86 Grove Ave	0.38mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,500 (-11%)	3mo	$295,000	$197	57
274 Partridge St	0.62mi	5/1.5 (+1)	1,614 (-4%)	5mo	$250,000	$155	56
880 Mercer St	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,571 (-6%)	1mo	$316,000	$201	54
66 Oakwood St	0.33mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,440 (-14%)	1mo	$305,000	$212	53
879 Mercer St	0.61mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,550 (-8%)	4mo	$283,250	$183	51
289 W Lawrence St	0.69mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,784 (+6%)	2mo	$305,000	$171	51
42 Peyster St	0.47mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,911 (+14%)	5mo	$273,500	$143	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $26,362
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.35×
• Total profit: $105,092
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12208

• Home prices YoY: -30.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,339 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,398/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $743

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,399

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $853	-5% $798	+0% $743	+5% $688	+10% $632
Rent	-10% $558	-5% $650	+0% $743	+5% $835	+10% $928
Rate	-1.0pp $823	-0.5pp $784	base $743	+0.5pp $701	+1.0pp $659

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30 Cardinal Ave Albany, NY	4.0	1.0	1529	$2,800	$1.83	45d	1	0.16mi
38 W Erie St Albany, NY	4.0	2.0	1440	$2,800	$1.94	24d	1	0.25mi
52 Grove Ave Albany, NY	4.0	1.0	1200	$2,200	$1.83	21d	1	0.36mi
21 Woodlawn Ave Unit 3RDFL Albany, NY	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,500	$1.15	44d	1	0.49mi
21 Woodlawn Ave Unit 3rd floor Albany, NY	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,500	$1.15	24d	1	0.49mi
32 Peyster St Unit 2nd Albany, NY	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,300	$1.53	44d	1	0.50mi
104 S Main Ave Unit 1 Albany, NY	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,600	$2.00	44d	1	0.51mi
546 Mercer St Unit 1 Albany, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	24d	1	0.58mi
614 Park Ave Albany, NY	3.0	1.0	1118	$2,500	$2.24	44d	1	0.63mi
673 Myrtle Ave Albany, NY	4.0	1.0	1076	$2,400	$2.23	21d	1	0.67mi
602 Morris St Albany, NY	3.0	1.0	1270	$1,850	$1.46	14d	1	0.70mi
830 Madison Ave Albany, NY	3.0	1.0	1180	$1,700	$1.44	24d	1	0.80mi
53 Greenway N Albany, NY	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	24d	1	0.80mi
78 S Pine Ave Unit 2 Albany, NY	3.0	1.5	1541	$2,350	$1.52	14d	1	0.85mi
257 Quail St Albany, NY	4.0	2.5	2208	$2,800	$1.27	44d	1	0.88mi
489 Hamilton St Unit 1 Albany, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	14d	1	0.89mi
437 Hamilton St Unit 2 Albany, NY	4.0	1.0	1200	$2,300	$1.92	14d	1	0.93mi
433 Hamilton St Unit 1 Albany, NY	4.0	1.0	1200	$2,300	$1.92	14d	1	0.94mi
58 Elberon Pl Apt 2 Albany, NY	4.0	1.0	1250	$2,200	$1.76	44d	1	1.01mi
273 Western Ave Unit 3 Albany, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,850	$1.68	24d	1	1.01mi
502 Second Ave #3 Albany, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	44d	1	1.03mi
223 Western Ave #1 Albany, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,750	$1.59	24d	1	1.05mi
178 Western Ave Unit 3 Albany, NY	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,725	$1.15	14d	1	1.08mi
15 Stanwix St Albany, NY	4.0	1.5	1660	$2,500	$1.51	14d	1	1.09mi
786 New Scotland Ave Albany, NY	5.0	2.5	1209	$3,000	$2.48	44d	1	1.11mi
50 Southern Blvd Albany, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,650	$1.38	14d	1	1.13mi
147 Western Ave Albany, NY	3.0	1.0	1428	$1,800	$1.26	14d	1	1.15mi
31 Bertha St Albany, NY	4.0	1.0	1116	$2,000	$1.79	24d	1	1.16mi
520 Madison Ave Unit 1 Albany, NY	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,700	$1.57	44d	1	1.17mi
569 Washington Ave Unit 1st Floor Albany, NY	4.0	1.0	1275	$2,000	$1.57	44d	1	1.19mi
22 Hurlbut St Albany, NY	3.0	1.0	1209	$2,050	$1.70	44d	1	1.20mi
2 Friebel Rd Albany, NY	3.0	2.0	1392	$2,200	$1.58	14d	1	1.27mi
135 Winthrop Ave Albany, NY	3.0	2.0	1788	$3,500	$1.96	44d	1	1.31mi
726 Western Ave Albany, NY	4.0	2.5	1900	$2,800	$1.47	44d	1	1.32mi
88 Willett St Albany, NY	3.0	1.0	825	$2,080	$2.52	14d	10	1.32mi
830 Western Ave Albany, NY	4.0	2.5	1600	$2,700	$1.69	14d	1	1.40mi
201 Park Ave Unit 10 Albany, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,100	$1.31	44d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   status Active
3. 2026-02-03
   historical
4. 2026-01-16
   listed $159,900 Active
5. 2008-04-11
   soldstatus $183,500
6. 2008-04-10
   soldstatus $183,500 233-char remark

   Show marketing remark (233 chars)

   Affordable, updated colonial near schools, restaurants, banks and churches. 2 new baths, huge kitchen, large master, 1st floor den, garage w/loft for all your projects! Contingent on owner securing home of choice. Excellent Condition

7. 2008-02-25
   historical 233-char remark

   Show marketing remark (233 chars)

   Affordable, updated colonial near schools, restaurants, banks and churches. 2 new baths, huge kitchen, large master, 1st floor den, garage w/loft for all your projects! Contingent on owner securing home of choice. Excellent Condition

8. 2008-01-07
   listed $189,900 233-char remark

   Show marketing remark (233 chars)

   Affordable, updated colonial near schools, restaurants, banks and churches. 2 new baths, huge kitchen, large master, 1st floor den, garage w/loft for all your projects! Contingent on owner securing home of choice. Excellent Condition

9. 2003-11-25
   soldstatus $101,000
10. 2003-09-04
    soldstatus $101,000 203-char remark

    Show marketing remark (203 chars)

    NEWER LARGE OAK KITCHEN ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDED. FIRST FLR DEN, DECORATIVE FIREPLACE IN LIVING ROOM, 1ST FLR WALL TO WALL CARPET OVER HARDWOOD FLRS. CONTACT BETH TO SHOW @ 495-1766 -- Very Good Condition

11. 2003-05-27
    historical 203-char remark

    Show marketing remark (203 chars)

    NEWER LARGE OAK KITCHEN ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDED. FIRST FLR DEN, DECORATIVE FIREPLACE IN LIVING ROOM, 1ST FLR WALL TO WALL CARPET OVER HARDWOOD FLRS. CONTACT BETH TO SHOW @ 495-1766 -- Very Good Condition

12. 2003-04-24
    listed $109,900 203-char remark

    Show marketing remark (203 chars)

    NEWER LARGE OAK KITCHEN ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDED. FIRST FLR DEN, DECORATIVE FIREPLACE IN LIVING ROOM, 1ST FLR WALL TO WALL CARPET OVER HARDWOOD FLRS. CONTACT BETH TO SHOW @ 495-1766 -- Very Good Condition

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,070
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,398
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,246
• − Management: −$2,246
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $6,772
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,625
• After-tax cash flow: $7,289/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Albany City School District
• NCES district ID: 3602460
• Math proficiency: 37% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,568
• Composite: 32.34/100
• National rank: #5744
• State rank: #543 of 590 in NY

Livability — Albany

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #129
• US rank: #2083

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Albany, NY
• County: Albany County · 196,626 people
• City population: 116,921
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 23,289
• Household income: $70,413
• Rent vs Own: 54.9% rent · 45.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1952.0

Population outlook (Albany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 320,794 people
• By 2030: 327,401 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 338,218 · +5.4%
• By 2050: 348,467 · +8.6%
• By 2075: 381,693 · +19.0%
• By 2100: 393,809 · +22.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 12% Asian 10% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Albany

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.8) · D 62.9% · R 37.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 25.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.8 2020: D+31.4 2016: D+24.3 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.46%
• Current HPI: 279.716
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.05%
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+45.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-04-16 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2026-02-03 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $159,900 Global MLS
• 2008-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $183,500 Public Records
• 2008-04-10 Sold (MLS) $183,500 Global MLS
• 2008-02-25 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2008-01-07 Listed $189,900 Global MLS
• 2003-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $101,000 Public Records
• 2003-09-04 Sold (MLS) $101,000 Global MLS
• 2003-05-27 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2003-04-24 Listed $109,900 Global MLS

Property tax history

+18.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $180 · +100.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.