15186 Belhaven St · Lyman, MS 39503

$309,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,168 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2018 0.34 ac lot Est $314k · at est. $23/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This one SOLD, but other beautiful homes still available; come pick yours today!! Built with quality and awesome features and backed by the warranty and customer care you can only get with DSLD HOMES you are going to LOVE your new home! This newly constructed and energy efficient CAMELLIA IV B is a 4/2 beauty with an open & split design. Granite counter tops & undermount sinks throughout, SS appliance package, kitchen island/breakfast bar overlooks large LR and gas f/p with granite profile & decorative mantle, crown molding, master has separate shower, soaking tub and double vanity, 30 yr shingles, brick & stucco Acadian style exterior, sod, landscape and so much more! Upgrades: Wood Floors!

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Tile flooring
• Cul-de-sac living

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC LIVING
• EXTENDED OUTDOOR SPACE
• MOVE-IN READY UPGRADES
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• TILE FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-141 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (25.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.4% in Lyman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#47 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $225k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,813 (25.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.95%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $314,360
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15186 Belhaven St	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,204 (+2%)	1mo	$309,900	$141	93
16423 Millsaps Ave	0.35mi	4/2.0	2,204 (+2%)	0mo	$320,000	$145	76
16255 Millsaps Ave	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,936 (-11%)	4mo	$295,500	$153	67
15180 High Point Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0	2,204 (+2%)	4mo	$300,140	$136	58
15234 High Point Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0	2,204 (+2%)	3mo	$296,725	$135	58
16418 Millsaps Ave	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,885 (-13%)	1mo	$285,000	$151	57
15538 Soaring Loop	0.65mi	4/2.0	2,314 (+7%)	1mo	$314,900	$136	53
15154 High Point Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0	2,314 (+7%)	2mo	$309,700	$134	51
15562 Soaring Loop	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,925 (-11%)	0mo	$287,900	$150	44
15123 High Point Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,925 (-11%)	1mo	$279,120	$145	40
15162 High Point Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,848 (-15%)	0mo	$275,477	$149	34
15163 High Point Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,848 (-15%)	2mo	$279,164	$151	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-49,662
• Equity at exit: $46,207

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-12,350
• Equity at exit: $26,794

Cash invested: $86,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39503

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 763
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,298 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax from tax record: −$179 /mo · $2,147/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,476

Max offer price $285,045

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,475
• Closing costs: $9,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15395 Percy St Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,975	$1.15	43d	1	0.76mi
15740 Rachael Dr Gulfport, MS	4.0	2.0	1928	$2,400	$1.24	13d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   listed $309,900 Active
3. 2026-04-08
   historical
4. 2026-03-26
   price $324,900
5. 2026-03-01
   listed $330,000 Active
6. 2018-06-19
   soldstatus $224,770
7. 2018-06-15
   soldstatus 720-char remark

   Show marketing remark (720 chars)

   This one SOLD, but other beautiful homes still available; come pick yours today!! Built with quality and awesome features and backed by the warranty and customer care you can only get with DSLD HOMES you are going to LOVE your new home! This newly constructed and energy efficient CAMELLIA IV B is a 4/2 beauty with an open & split design. Granite counter tops & undermount sinks throughout, SS appliance package, kitchen island/breakfast bar overlooks large LR and gas f/p with granite profile & decorative mantle, crown molding, master has separate shower, soaking tub and double vanity, 30 yr shingles, brick & stucco Acadian style exterior, sod, landscape and so much more! Upgrades: Wood Floors!

8. 2018-03-05
   listed $220,055 720-char remark

   Show marketing remark (720 chars)

   This one SOLD, but other beautiful homes still available; come pick yours today!! Built with quality and awesome features and backed by the warranty and customer care you can only get with DSLD HOMES you are going to LOVE your new home! This newly constructed and energy efficient CAMELLIA IV B is a 4/2 beauty with an open & split design. Granite counter tops & undermount sinks throughout, SS appliance package, kitchen island/breakfast bar overlooks large LR and gas f/p with granite profile & decorative mantle, crown molding, master has separate shower, soaking tub and double vanity, 30 yr shingles, brick & stucco Acadian style exterior, sod, landscape and so much more! Upgrades: Wood Floors!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,147 · $179/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,448 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: +$301/yr (+$25/mo · 14.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,578
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,359
• − Property taxes: −$2,147
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,206
• − Management: −$2,206
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$9,015
• Taxable loss: −$7,182
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,724
• After-tax cash flow: $35/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Lyman

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #8189

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lyman, MS
• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 55,059
• Household income: $62,641
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1686.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 187.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.99%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+40.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-09 Listed $309,900 MLSU
• 2026-04-08 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $324,900 MLSU
• 2026-03-01 Listed $330,000 MLSU
• 2018-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $224,770 Public Records
• 2018-06-15 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2018-03-05 Listed $220,055 MLSU

Property tax history

+36.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,147 · +15.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.