Baja Plan · Converse, TX 78109

$169,099

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,189 sqft · SingleFamily · 594 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This two-story home features a classic layout ideal for young families and working professionals. The living area is located on the primary floor and consists of a family room and fully-equipped kitchen. There are three bedrooms on the second level, including the spacious owner's suite, which is situated at the back of the home for optimal privacy and comfort.

Key facts

• Garage
• Listed 593 days

🏗️ New construction. The $169,099 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $175,660.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $169k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-22 ($-260/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.4% in Converse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#649 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: East Central Heritage Middle (math 11% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 1,120 students, 44% FRL); East Central H S (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,252 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1757 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 43d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 594 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $148,807 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 594 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.53%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $175,660
• List price: $169,099
• Delta: -0.89%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4909 Winecup Cv	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,189 (0%)	1mo	$149,999	$126	90
4906 Winecup Cv	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,189 (0%)	5mo	$162,999	$137	87
11942 Spiderwort Rdg	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,189 (0%)	4mo	$163,999	$138	86
4917 Winecup Cv	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+14%)	2mo	$181,999	$134	66
4925 Winecup Cv	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+14%)	3mo	$160,999	$118	65
4930 Winecup Cv	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+14%)	1mo	$160,999	$118	65
4941 Winecup Cv	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+14%)	3mo	$160,999	$118	65
4933 Winecup Cv	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+14%)	3mo	$183,999	$135	65
4957 Winecup Cv	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+14%)	3mo	$160,999	$118	65
4949 Winecup Cv	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+14%)	4mo	$160,999	$118	64
4965 Winecup Cv	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+14%)	4mo	$163,999	$121	64
4902 Winecup Cv	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+14%)	4mo	$186,999	$137	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-34,245
• Equity at exit: $26,191

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-48,598
• Equity at exit: $15,188

Cash invested: $49,185 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 27 active · 26 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.5 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $249,000 ($174/sqft)
• Median days on market: 191 d
• This list price: 26% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -14.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78109

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 1757
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,509 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$921
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$220 /mo · $2,635/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $-22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,537

Max offer price $172,523

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $100	-5% $39	+0% $-22	+5% $-82	+10% $-143
Rent	-10% $-141	-5% $-81	+0% $-22	+5% $38	+10% $98
Rate	-1.0pp $67	-0.5pp $23	base $-22	+0.5pp $-67	+1.0pp $-114

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,915
• Closing costs: $5,270
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11806 Bluebell Rdg Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,300	$1.09	6d	1	0.06mi
5014 Botanic Trl Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,350	$0.99	43d	1	0.08mi
5015 Daisy Blossom Converse, TX	2.0	2.0	852	$1,290	$1.51	99d	1	0.13mi
11911 Floral Blossom Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,275	$1.07	43d	1	0.13mi
4974 Daisy Blossom Converse, TX	2.0	2.0	850	$1,225	$1.44	24d	1	0.15mi
4966 Daisy Blossom Converse, TX	2.0	2.0	852	$1,150	$1.35	7d	1	0.16mi
12003 Floral Blossom Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,550	$1.30	139d	1	0.16mi
5010 Primrose Rdg Converse, TX	2.0	2.0	850	$1,295	$1.52	139d	1	0.20mi
5026 Primrose Rdg Converse, TX	2.0	2.0	850	$1,275	$1.50	24d	1	0.20mi
5029 Winecup Cv Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,325	$1.11	0d	1	0.21mi
4949 Winecup Cv Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,245	$0.92	10d	1	0.21mi
4925 Winecup Cv Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,265	$0.93	10d	1	0.22mi
4909 Winecup Cv Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,500	$1.26	29d	1	0.23mi
4906 Winecup Cv Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,350	$1.14	119d	1	0.23mi
12127 Floral Blossom Converse, TX	2.0	2.5	1013	$1,295	$1.28	24d	1	0.23mi
12135 Floral Blossom Converse, TX	2.0	2.5	1015	$1,250	$1.23	94d	1	0.25mi
12135 Floral Blossom Converse, TX	2.0	2.5	1015	$1,250	$1.23	64d	1	0.25mi
11938 Spiderwort Rdg Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,500	$1.26	78d	1	0.25mi
4522 Meerkat Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,625	$1.09	80d	1	0.78mi
4918 Valenzuela Converse, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1719	$1,699	$0.99	0d	133	0.91mi
4338 Admirals Bnd Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1470	$1,800	$1.22	43d	1	1.08mi
3642 Georgia Trce Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1264	$1,400	$1.11	29d	1	1.10mi
3642 Georgia Trce Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1264	$1,500	$1.19	64d	1	1.10mi
10818 Fox Trot Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,850	$1.26	100d	1	1.26mi
10818 Fox Trot Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,750	$1.19	5d	1	1.26mi
12803 Sage Turn Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,550	$1.05	43d	1	1.42mi
12907 Rosemary Bnd Saint Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,650	$1.12	24d	1	1.48mi
10643 Erinita Way Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,416	$0.96	43d	1	1.49mi
3130 Jackson Smt Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1428	$1,885	$1.32	100d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $169,099 Active 594 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   pricedays on market $169,099 Active 593 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $174,099 Active 592 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $174,099 Active 591 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $174,099 Active 590 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $174,099 Active 589 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $174,099 Active 588 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $174,099 Active 587 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $174,099 Active 586 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $174,099 Active 585 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $174,099 Active 584 DOM
12. 2026-09-14
    price $174,099 Active 583 DOM
13. 2026-09-13
    days on market $173,099 Active 583 DOM
14. 2026-09-12
    days on market $173,099 Active 582 DOM
15. 2026-09-11
    days on market $173,099 Active 581 DOM
16. 2026-09-05
    days on market $173,099 Active 575 DOM
17. 2026-09-04
    days on market $173,099 Active 574 DOM
18. 2026-09-03
    days on market $173,099 Active 573 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $173,099 Active 569 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $173,099 Active 568 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $173,099 Active 567 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $173,099 Active 566 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $173,099 Active 565 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $173,099 Active 564 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $173,099 Active 563 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    price $173,099 Active 562 DOM
27. 2026-08-23
    days on market $170,099 Active 562 DOM
28. 2026-08-22
    days on market $170,099 Active 561 DOM
29. 2026-08-21
    days on market $170,099 Active 560 DOM
30. 2026-08-20
    pricedays on market $170,099 Active 559 DOM
31. 2026-08-19
    days on market $169,599 Active 558 DOM
32. 2026-08-18
    days on market $169,599 Active 557 DOM
33. 2026-08-17
    pricedays on market $169,599 Active 556 DOM
34. 2026-08-16
    days on market $169,099 Active 555 DOM
35. 2026-08-15
    days on market $169,099 Active 554 DOM
36. 2026-08-14
    days on market $169,099 Active 553 DOM
37. 2026-08-13
    days on market $169,099 Active 552 DOM
38. 2026-08-12
    days on market $169,099 Active 551 DOM
39. 2026-08-11
    days on market $169,099 Active 550 DOM
40. 2026-08-10
    days on market $169,099 Active 549 DOM
41. 2026-08-09
    days on market $169,099 Active 548 DOM
42. 2026-08-08
    days on market $169,099 Active 547 DOM
43. 2026-08-06
    days on market $169,099 Active 545 DOM
44. 2026-08-05
    days on market $169,099 Active 544 DOM
45. 2026-08-04
    days on market $169,099 Active 543 DOM
46. 2026-08-03
    pricedays on market $169,099 Active 542 DOM
47. 2026-07-31
    pricedays on market $168,099 Active 539 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $167,699 Active 537 DOM
49. 2026-07-28
    days on market $167,699 Active 536 DOM
50. 2026-07-26
    pricedays on market $167,699 Active 534 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,110
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,840
• − Property taxes: −$2,635
• − Insurance: −$878
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,449
• − Management: −$1,449
• − Depreciation: −$5,110
• Taxable loss: −$3,250
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$780
• After-tax cash flow: $520/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with a classic layout ideal for young families and working professionals. It features a modern kitchen, two bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior with a welcoming entrance. The property is move-in ready and can be further enhanced with minor updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase property value. ↑
• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase property value. ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and can increase property value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Middle East Central Heritage Middle F TX #1,478/1,662 Nat'l #12,017/14,009 High East Central H S F TX #1,264/1,632 Nat'l #12,478/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817850
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,941
• Composite: 18.67/100
• National rank: #8887
• State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Converse

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #649
• US rank: #12250

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 2,336,851 people
• City population: 63,067
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 63,067
• Household income: $91,320
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 27% Two or more races 21% Black 21% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.02%
• Current HPI: 236.4923
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.08%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-01 Price Changed $164,999 Zillow
• 2025-08-23 Price Changed $169,999 Zillow
• 2025-03-17 Price Changed $188,999 Zillow
• 2025-03-11 Price Changed $187,499 Zillow
• 2025-02-08 Listed $184,499 Zillow