2854 Thunderbird Trail Trl · Bedford, MI 48144

$250,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,736 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 1961 0.31 ac lot Est $283k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Situated on a quiet dead-end street, this spacious and versatile home offers a flexible floor plan with a private mother-in-law suite or bonus living area. The separate suite includes two rooms, a half bath, a brand-new furnace, and a wall A/C unit, making it ideal for multi-generational living, guests, a home office, or hobby space. A mudroom/utility hallway connects the suite to the main home, and an additional craft room provides even more functional space. The main living area features a spacious kitchen with a sliding glass door leading to a huge sunroom, which opens to a composite deck perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The comfortable living room and three bedrooms provide ample l

Key facts

• Craft room
• Large kitchen
• Sunroom

Tags

• PRIVATE MOTHER-IN-LAW SUITE
• CRAFT ROOM
• LARGE KITCHEN
• SUNROOM
• COMPOSITE DECK
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with three parking spaces (garage approx. 864 SF)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sanitary sewer; Electric service (standard)
• Home design: Residential single-story home built in 1961; Located in the Thunderbird subdivision, Bedford Township; mail city Lambertville
• Construction: Crawl foundation
• Exterior features: Aluminum and vinyl siding exterior; Road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Main-level kitchen (16 x 12) with carpeted flooring
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level — sizes: 12 x 12, 12 x 10, and approximately 9' wide; all bedrooms carpeted
• Flooring: Carpet in most living areas, bedrooms, sun room, and bonus/media room; Vinyl flooring in sitting room and main bathroom
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom and one lavatory (total 2 baths/lavatories); Main-level bathroom with vinyl flooring (approx. 6 x 4)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas fuel
• Interior features: 8 total rooms; Sun/Florida room (15 x 14)
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room (12 x 6)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $493 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (0.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bedford Public Schools (suburban): math 33% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #150 of 540 in MI (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Douglas Road Elementary School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #547 of 1,397 statewide, top 41%, 575 students, 32% FRL); Bedford Junior High School (math 30% / reading 52%, grade F, #195 of 493 statewide, top 41%, 911 students, 29% FRL); Bedford Senior High School (math 38% / reading 64%, grade D+, #142 of 713 statewide, top 20%, 1,294 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 264 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $249,500 (0.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.46%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $282,968
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3347 Shadywood Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,788 (+3%)	9mo	$329,000	$184	51
2933 W Dean Rd	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,504 (-13%)	3mo	$295,000	$196	51
3335 Woodmont Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,671 (-4%)	19mo	$272,500	$163	44
2691 Chapel Creek Dr	0.24mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,974 (+14%)	20mo	$350,000	$177	40
7336 Kenilworth Dr	0.71mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,533 (-12%)	3mo	$223,500	$146	40
7712 Secor Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,916 (+10%)	19mo	$286,000	$149	38
8055 George St	0.58mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,478 (-15%)	4mo	$154,000	$104	38
3336 Springdale St	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,508 (-13%)	12mo	$165,000	$109	35
3323 Deepwood Dr	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,483 (-15%)	14mo	$292,500	$197	34
8299 Galloway Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,994 (+15%)	9mo	$285,000	$143	32
8367 S Douglas Rd	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,920 (+11%)	9mo	$180,000	$94	32
7365 Hidden Valley Dr	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,981 (+14%)	17mo	$326,000	$165	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-9,204
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $31,976
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48144

• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,495 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $493

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,870

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $635	-5% $564	+0% $493	+5% $423	+10% $352
Rent	-10% $296	-5% $395	+0% $493	+5% $592	+10% $690
Rate	-1.0pp $619	-0.5pp $557	base $493	+0.5pp $429	+1.0pp $363

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7076 Middlebury Dr Lambertville, MI	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,495	$2.00	15d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $250,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on marketlisting id $250,000 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Coming Soon 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Coming Soon 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-14
   listed $250,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $750 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,300 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,550/yr (+$129/mo · 206.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,395
• − Management: −$2,395
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable income: $1,873
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$450
• After-tax cash flow: $5,471/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bedford Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2604470
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $63,784
• Composite: 38.22/100
• National rank: #4252
• State rank: #150 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bedford

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lambertville, MI
• Population (ZIP): 10,275

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,439 people
• By 2030: 140,033 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 128,408 · -11.1%
• By 2050: 115,024 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 87,273 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 63,110 · -56.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 5% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 2% Spanish 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.1) · D 35.7% · R 62.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: -27.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.1 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.1 2012: D+1.0 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.72%
• Current HPI: 163.3496
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Coming Soon $250,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $750 · -57.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.