1224 E Lafayette St · Stockton, CA 95205

$309,999

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,372 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 317 Days on market

Built 1888 5,001 sqft lot $226/sqft · 11% below area Est $350k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

THIS IS THE OLDEST HOME I HAVE EVER LISTED! BUILT IN 1888 ! Nice character, Older wooden porch and wood exterior. Garage has been converted to a possible living area with kitchen/bath possibilities. Basement. This family has given the interior nice touches, some windows have been replaced and walls have been sheet rocked plus granite counter tops in kitchen and inside laundry area. Living areas are roomy. Tidy interior. Back yard has room for creative ideas patio and garden areas nice sunlight, side yard can be used for extra off street parking . This home will need some exterior refinishing and painting. A lot of possibilities. Need a roomy home, fenced grounds, close to shopping area

Key facts

• Wooden porch
• Converted garage
• Granite counter tops

Tags

• WOODEN PORCH
• WOOD EXTERIOR
• CONVERTED GARAGE
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• FENCED GROUNDS
• GARDEN AREAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-776/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $299k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Stockton Unified (urban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #295 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,439/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 1712% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 317 days — a 12% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1888 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $243,942 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 317 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1888 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.02%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $350,226
• List price: $309,999
• Delta: -11.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
709 E Sonora St	0.38mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,247 (-9%)	2mo	$340,000	$273	58
748 E Worth St	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,292 (-6%)	9mo	$335,000	$259	56
328 Florence	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,460 (+6%)	8mo	$360,000	$247	46
610 E Anderson St	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,450 (+6%)	15mo	$368,000	$254	46
1835 E Anderson St	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,235 (-10%)	1mo	$270,000	$219	45
422 E Sonora St	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,552 (+13%)	1mo	$349,000	$225	43
322 E Sonora St	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,519 (+11%)	8mo	$310,000	$204	43
2030 E Lafayette St	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-12%)	0mo	$395,000	$329	42
1404 E Park St	0.71mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,233 (-10%)	4mo	$315,000	$255	40
1418 E Lindsay St	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,183 (-14%)	14mo	$360,000	$304	40
2075 E Myrtle St	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,169 (-15%)	6mo	$325,000	$278	35
702 E Oak St	0.74mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,222 (-11%)	9mo	$165,000	$135	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-54,408
• Equity at exit: $46,222

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-52,907
• Equity at exit: $26,803

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95205

• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,439 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,046/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $-65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,521

Max offer price $298,575

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2271 E Church St Stockton, CA	3.0	1.5	1285	$2,245	$1.75	23d	1	0.91mi
1526 N Sierra Nevada St Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1024	$2,600	$2.54	23d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $309,999 Active 317 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $309,999 Active 316 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $309,999 Active 315 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $309,999 Active 314 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $309,999 Active 312 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $309,999 Active 309 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $309,999 Active 308 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $309,999 Active 307 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $309,999 Active 306 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $309,999 Active 303 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $309,999 Active 302 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $309,999 Active 301 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $309,999 Active 300 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $309,999 Active 299 DOM
15. 2005-05-31
    soldstatus $284,000
16. 2003-01-31
    soldstatus $140,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,046 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,356 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: +$310/yr (+$26/mo · 15.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,273
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$2,046
• − Insurance: −$2,347
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,342
• − Management: −$2,342
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$6,187
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,485
• After-tax cash flow: $709/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stockton Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638010
• Math proficiency: 23% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $37,563
• Composite: 28.65/100
• National rank: #6701
• State rank: #295 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 39,608
• Household income: $60,325
• Rent vs Own: 50.4% rent · 49.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1712.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 21% White 9% Asian 6% Black 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 58% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -298.45%
• Current HPI: 502.8934
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+102.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2005-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $284,000 Public Records
• 2003-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,046 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.