21572 Baccarat Ln #204 · Estero, FL 33928

$452,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,542 sqft · Condo public records · 192 Days on market

Built 2006 $665/mo HOA · 18% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Exquisite Sandpiper model, 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, end unit, over 2800 sq. ft. The dining room is surrounded by columns. The kitchen with stainless steel appliances, granite counters, faces the great room & expansive lanai overlooking a preserve. Electric storm shutters on Lanai. The master bedroom suite with sitting area & a lavish bathroom complete with soaker tub, walk-in shower, split vanities & spacious walk-in closet. There are 2 generous guest rooms, guest bath, & a powder room. Custom color paint throughout to offset crown molding and tray ceilings. Tiles throughout, including lanai; carpeting in bedrooms. Provision for a future elevator. The amenities center has a pool, spa, fitness room, billiards, community gathering room, catering kitchen, large screen TV - AND on-site management. A superb location, West of US 41, minutes to Coconut Point Mall, Germain Arena, FGCU, the beaches, golf courses, and more. The airport is just a quick ride away. Meadows of Estero, a small enclave of less than 300 homes in a great location - the perfect SWFL get-away. Furnishings negotiable, with exclusions, subject to inventory list. All artwork/decorative accessories do not convey.

Key facts

• Gated neighborhood
• Brand new roof
• Spacious lanai

Tags

• GATED NEIGHBORHOOD
• BRAND NEW ROOF
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT
• SPACIOUS LANAI
• ELECTRIC HURRICANE SCREENS
• PRIVATE TRANQUIL PRESERVE

Property features AI

Other

• Other: Part of a complex with 262 units; 4 units in the building and 2 units per floor; 2 total floors; Lot is regular shape with central irrigation, landscaped area and preserve views; private/paved/public road access; deed and architectural restrictions (no commercial, no RV); Possession at closing

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (professional management); Master HOA fee $1,996 quarterly (total annual recurring fees $7,984); HOA covers cable, internet/WiFi, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, manager, exterior and interior pest control, recreation facilities, repairs, reserves, security, sewer, street lights, street maintenance, trash removal and water; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool and spa/hot tub, exercise room, billiards, business center, library, community room, bike storage and streetlights; Gated community: Meadows of Estero

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway and paved parking; Guest parking available
• Security: Gated community; Entry card and entry keypad access
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential property in a low-rise (1-3) building; Carriage/coach style; corner end-unit; Rear exposure faces west
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Tile roof; Built in 2006; Foundation: (not specified)
• Exterior features: Automatic sprinkler system; Single-hung and sliding windows; Manual shutters and fabric/screen shutters; Stucco exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Breakfast bar and eat-in kitchen; Dishwasher; Disposal; Range; Self-cleaning oven; Microwave; Refrigerator/freezer; Refrigerator/ice maker
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms with a split layout
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Master bath with dual sinks and separate tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cable prewire; Coffered and tray ceilings; Vaulted ceiling; High-speed internet available; Laundry tub; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Window coverings; Great room floor plan; Screened balcony and screened lanai/porch; Guest room and guest bath; 8 total rooms; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in residence; Washer and dryer; Laundry tub; Auto garage door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $452k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-663 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $335k (25.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $361k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $335k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.4% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 668 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($398k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $295k; list at $452k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $334,942 (25.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.28%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-125,728
• Equity at exit: $67,395

10-year hold

• IRR: -58.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.61×
• Total profit: $-203,501
• Equity at exit: $39,081

Cash invested: $126,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 668
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,609 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,370
• Tax from tax record: −$290 /mo · $3,477/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$665
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$758
• Net cashflow: $-663

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,447

Max offer price $334,942

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $113,000
• Closing costs: $13,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3535 Cherry Blossom Ct #202 Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	2878	$2,800	$0.97	23d	1	0.11mi
3535 Cherry Blossom Ct #102 Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	1917	$2,900	$1.51	23d	1	0.11mi
22361 Fountain Lakes Blvd Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1942	$4,000	$2.06	23d	1	0.35mi
3610 Lansing Loop #103 Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	1917	$2,800	$1.46	3d	1	0.35mi
22632 Fountain Lakes Blvd Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1750	$3,000	$1.71	23d	1	0.59mi
22033 Natures Cove Ct Estero, FL	2.0	2.5	2650	$10,000	$3.77	23d	1	1.10mi
21670 Red Latan Way Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2041	$3,500	$1.71	23d	1	1.25mi
4751 W Bay Blvd #101 Estero, FL	3.0	3.5	2342	$12,500	$5.34	23d	1	1.28mi
23176 Grassy Pine Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1954	$5,000	$2.56	23d	1	1.31mi
4761 W Bay Blvd #703 Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2150	$9,000	$4.19	23d	1	1.32mi
21790 Sunset Lake Ct Estero, FL	4.0	2.5	2758	$3,200	$1.16	14d	1	1.41mi
4600 Key Largo Ln Bonita Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$5,250	$2.62	3d	1	1.44mi
4600 Key Largo Ln Bonita Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$5,250	$2.62	23d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $665 · $7,980/yr
• Likely covers: electricpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-02-17
   price $452,000
2. 2025-11-15
   listed $459,900 Active
3. 2025-05-01
   price $459,900
4. 2025-04-02
   price $475,000
5. 2025-03-26
   price $486,400
6. 2025-02-02
   listed $498,900 Active
7. 2018-12-27
   soldstatus $295,000 Sold 1212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1212 chars)

   Exquisite Sandpiper model, 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, end unit, over 2800 sq. ft. The dining room is surrounded by columns. The kitchen with stainless steel appliances, granite counters, faces the great room & expansive lanai overlooking a preserve. Electric storm shutters on Lanai. The master bedroom suite with sitting area & a lavish bathroom complete with soaker tub, walk-in shower, split vanities & spacious walk-in closet. There are 2 generous guest rooms, guest bath, & a powder room. Custom color paint throughout to offset crown molding and tray ceilings. Tiles throughout, including lanai; carpeting in bedrooms. Provision for a future elevator. The amenities center has a pool, spa, fitness room, billiards, community gathering room, catering kitchen, large screen TV - AND on-site management. A superb location, West of US 41, minutes to Coconut Point Mall, Germain Arena, FGCU, the beaches, golf courses, and more. The airport is just a quick ride away. Meadows of Estero, a small enclave of less than 300 homes in a great location - the perfect SWFL get-away. Furnishings negotiable, with exclusions, subject to inventory list. All artwork/decorative accessories do not convey.

8. 2018-11-29
   status Pending With Contingencies 1212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1212 chars)

   Exquisite Sandpiper model, 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, end unit, over 2800 sq. ft. The dining room is surrounded by columns. The kitchen with stainless steel appliances, granite counters, faces the great room & expansive lanai overlooking a preserve. Electric storm shutters on Lanai. The master bedroom suite with sitting area & a lavish bathroom complete with soaker tub, walk-in shower, split vanities & spacious walk-in closet. There are 2 generous guest rooms, guest bath, & a powder room. Custom color paint throughout to offset crown molding and tray ceilings. Tiles throughout, including lanai; carpeting in bedrooms. Provision for a future elevator. The amenities center has a pool, spa, fitness room, billiards, community gathering room, catering kitchen, large screen TV - AND on-site management. A superb location, West of US 41, minutes to Coconut Point Mall, Germain Arena, FGCU, the beaches, golf courses, and more. The airport is just a quick ride away. Meadows of Estero, a small enclave of less than 300 homes in a great location - the perfect SWFL get-away. Furnishings negotiable, with exclusions, subject to inventory list. All artwork/decorative accessories do not convey.

9. 2018-10-29
   price $310,000 1212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1212 chars)

   Exquisite Sandpiper model, 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, end unit, over 2800 sq. ft. The dining room is surrounded by columns. The kitchen with stainless steel appliances, granite counters, faces the great room & expansive lanai overlooking a preserve. Electric storm shutters on Lanai. The master bedroom suite with sitting area & a lavish bathroom complete with soaker tub, walk-in shower, split vanities & spacious walk-in closet. There are 2 generous guest rooms, guest bath, & a powder room. Custom color paint throughout to offset crown molding and tray ceilings. Tiles throughout, including lanai; carpeting in bedrooms. Provision for a future elevator. The amenities center has a pool, spa, fitness room, billiards, community gathering room, catering kitchen, large screen TV - AND on-site management. A superb location, West of US 41, minutes to Coconut Point Mall, Germain Arena, FGCU, the beaches, golf courses, and more. The airport is just a quick ride away. Meadows of Estero, a small enclave of less than 300 homes in a great location - the perfect SWFL get-away. Furnishings negotiable, with exclusions, subject to inventory list. All artwork/decorative accessories do not convey.

10. 2018-09-02
    listed $325,000 Active 1212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1212 chars)

    Exquisite Sandpiper model, 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, end unit, over 2800 sq. ft. The dining room is surrounded by columns. The kitchen with stainless steel appliances, granite counters, faces the great room & expansive lanai overlooking a preserve. Electric storm shutters on Lanai. The master bedroom suite with sitting area & a lavish bathroom complete with soaker tub, walk-in shower, split vanities & spacious walk-in closet. There are 2 generous guest rooms, guest bath, & a powder room. Custom color paint throughout to offset crown molding and tray ceilings. Tiles throughout, including lanai; carpeting in bedrooms. Provision for a future elevator. The amenities center has a pool, spa, fitness room, billiards, community gathering room, catering kitchen, large screen TV - AND on-site management. A superb location, West of US 41, minutes to Coconut Point Mall, Germain Arena, FGCU, the beaches, golf courses, and more. The airport is just a quick ride away. Meadows of Estero, a small enclave of less than 300 homes in a great location - the perfect SWFL get-away. Furnishings negotiable, with exclusions, subject to inventory list. All artwork/decorative accessories do not convey.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,477 · $290/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,752 · $313/mo
• Expected delta: +$275/yr (+$23/mo · 7.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,303
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,319
• − Property taxes: −$3,477
• − Insurance: −$2,260
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,464
• − Management: −$3,464
• − HOA: −$7,980
• − Depreciation: −$13,149
• Taxable loss: −$15,811
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,795
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,157/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Estero, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+39.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $452,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-11-15 Listed $459,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-05-01 Price Changed $459,900 BEARMLS
• 2025-04-02 Price Changed $475,000 BEARMLS
• 2025-03-26 Price Changed $486,400 BEARMLS
• 2025-02-02 Listed $498,900 BEARMLS
• 2018-12-27 Sold (MLS) $295,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2018-11-29 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2018-10-29 Price Changed $310,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2018-09-02 Listed $325,000 NAPLESMLS

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,477 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.