29778 W Essex Ct · Chesterfield, MI 48051

$61,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 302 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into this brand new 1056 sq. ft. 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home designed with a modern open floor plan that feels both spacious and inviting. The kitchen features a large island with additional seating, perfect for everyday living. The primary bedroom and bathroom are located on one end of the home, while two additional bedrooms and a second bathroom are positioned on the opposite end, creating a well balanced layout. Central air and energy efficient features ensure comfort in every season. Located in Carriage Way in Chesterfield MI, this home offers convenient access to the Hall Road M 59 corridor, shopping, dining, and nearby parks along Anchor Bay. This is your chance to secure a brand new home in a desirable location. Schedule your tour today and see it in person. Some photos have been virtually stagged!

Key facts

• Playgrounds
• Near beaches
• Swimming pool

Tags

• CARRIAGE WAY
• CLUBHOUSE FOR EVENTS
• SWIMMING POOL
• PLAYGROUNDS
• NEAR BEACHES
• SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $62k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $779 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $62k).
• Recommended offer: $54k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• L'Anse Creuse Public Schools (suburban): math 31% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #184 of 540 in MI (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 140 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $428 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 302 days — a 12% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $54,472 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 302 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.90%
• DSCR: 3.40
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $28,512
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
52857 Bunker Hill Blvd Blvd	0.13mi	3/2.0	924 (-12%)	15mo	$25,000	$27	60
52259 Quaker Hill Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0	956 (-10%)	13mo	$21,250	$22	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $39,579
• Equity at exit: $9,229

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.68×
• Total profit: $98,408
• Equity at exit: $5,352

Cash invested: $17,332 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48051

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,527 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$325
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$77 /mo · $928/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $779

Break-even live

Break-even rent $541

Max offer price $61,900

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,475
• Closing costs: $1,857
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29810 W Essex Ct Unit 107 New Baltimore, MI	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,439	$1.36	5d	1	0.02mi
29778 W Essex Ct Unit 109 New Baltimore, MI	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,469	$1.39	44d	1	0.03mi
29811 W Essex Ct Unit 114 New Baltimore, MI	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,729	$1.19	44d	1	0.04mi
52780 S Zacharias Ct Unit 152 Chesterfield, MI	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,499	$1.42	2d	1	0.06mi
52792 S Zacharias Ct Unit 151 Chesterfield, MI	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,479	$1.40	2d	1	0.06mi
52758 S Yorktown Ct Unit 176 New Baltimore, MI	2.0	2.0	960	$1,449	$1.51	2d	1	0.07mi
29649 Cambridge Ct Unit 256 New Baltimore, MI	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,579	$1.37	2d	1	0.09mi
52871 N Zacharias Ct Unit 161 Chesterfield, MI	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,519	$1.32	2d	1	0.10mi
52436 Winston Ct Unit 209 Chesterfield, MI	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,479	$1.40	44d	1	0.11mi
52962 N Yorktown Ct Unit 168 Chesterfield, MI	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,519	$1.44	2d	1	0.13mi
52705 Van Buren Dr Unit 297 Chesterfield, MI	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,479	$1.40	2d	1	0.14mi
29909 Flushing Dr Unit 71 New Baltimore, MI	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,669	$1.16	17d	1	0.14mi
29805 Jamestown Dr Unit 435 New Baltimore, MI	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,739	$1.29	2d	1	0.27mi
29890 Donna Ln New Baltimore, MI	2.0	1.5	1120	$1,500	$1.34	2d	1	0.68mi
28346 Adler Park Dr S #246 Chesterfield, MI	2.0	2.0	1332	$1,750	$1.31	44d	1	0.84mi
28218 S Pointe Ln New Baltimore, MI	2.0	2.0	1427	$1,850	$1.30	5d	1	0.90mi
28218 S Pointe Ln New Baltimore, MI	2.0	2.0	1425	$2,100	$1.47	24d	1	0.90mi
50450 Bay Run N #50 Chesterfield, MI	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,500	$1.25	17d	1	1.10mi
28123 23 Mile Rd New Baltimore, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,059	$1.32	2d	5	1.15mi
50031 S Benny Ct New Baltimore, MI	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,450	$1.37	44d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $61,900 Active 302 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $61,900 Active 301 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $61,900 Active 300 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $61,900 Active 299 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $61,900 Active 297 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $61,900 Active 296 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $61,900 Active 293 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $61,900 Active 292 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $61,900 Active 291 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $61,900 Active 288 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $61,900 Active 287 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $61,900 Active 286 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $61,900 Active 285 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $61,900 Active 284 DOM
15. 2025-08-20
    listed $61,900 Active 819-char remark

    Show marketing remark (819 chars)

    Step into this brand new 1056 sq. ft. 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home designed with a modern open floor plan that feels both spacious and inviting. The kitchen features a large island with additional seating, perfect for everyday living. The primary bedroom and bathroom are located on one end of the home, while two additional bedrooms and a second bathroom are positioned on the opposite end, creating a well balanced layout. Central air and energy efficient features ensure comfort in every season. Located in Carriage Way in Chesterfield MI, this home offers convenient access to the Hall Road M 59 corridor, shopping, dining, and nearby parks along Anchor Bay. This is your chance to secure a brand new home in a desirable location. Schedule your tour today and see it in person. Some photos have been virtually stagged!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,324
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,467
• − Property taxes: −$928
• − Insurance: −$310
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,466
• − Management: −$1,466
• − Depreciation: −$1,801
• Taxable income: $8,886
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,133
• After-tax cash flow: $7,210/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 1056 sq. ft. 3-bedroom 2-bathroom home is in excellent condition with a modern open floor plan. It's move-in ready with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint freshening — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping enhancement — Improved landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both HVAC maintenance — Regular maintenance ensures comfort and energy efficiency, appealing to buyers and renters alike.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint freshening — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping enhancement — Improved landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — Regular maintenance ensures comfort and energy efficiency, appealing to buyers and renters alike. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: L'Anse Creuse Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2621870
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,757
• Composite: 35.99/100
• National rank: #4790
• State rank: #184 of 540 in MI

Livability — Chesterfield

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 40,302
• Population (ZIP): 17,716

Population outlook (Macomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 925,296 people
• By 2030: 948,226 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 983,961 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 1,010,200 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 1,076,222 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 1,077,065 · +16.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 8% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 18% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Macomb

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 42.2% · R 55.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.06%
• Current HPI: 210.6017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-08-20 Listed $61,900 Zillow