4847 Whitmore · Nipinnawasee, CA 95338

$174,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1973 1.29 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special — priced to sell! 3 bed / 2 bath mobile home, approx. 1,440 sq ft, on approximately 1.21ac, offered AS-IS. This fixer-upper needs significant TLC and currently contains a large amount of trash and debris — bring your trash trailer and tools. Property also includes a garage. Great opportunity for investors or a buyer looking for a starter home to rehab and add value. Don’t miss it — schedule a showing today! Seller is VERY motivated bring ALL Offers!

Key facts

• 1.29 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1973

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $174k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $515 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $174k).
• Recommended offer: $153k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,264 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mariposa County Unified (rural): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #282 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 89 units permitted in Mariposa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mariposa County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $174k implies a 168% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 10→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.31%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $4,558
• Equity at exit: $25,944

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $46,083
• Equity at exit: $15,044

Cash invested: $48,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95338

• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,064 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$912
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $770/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,412

Max offer price $174,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,500
• Closing costs: $5,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $174,000 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,000 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,000 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,000 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,000 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $174,000 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,000 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,000 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,000 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $174,000 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,000 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $174,000 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,000 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,000 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,000 Active 114 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,000 Active 113 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $174,000 Active 112 DOM
18. 2026-03-08
    price $174,000 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    Investor special — priced to sell! 3 bed / 2 bath mobile home, approx. 1,440 sq ft, on approximately 1.21ac, offered AS-IS. This fixer-upper needs significant TLC and currently contains a large amount of trash and debris — bring your trash trailer and tools. Property also includes a garage. Great opportunity for investors or a buyer looking for a starter home to rehab and add value. Don’t miss it — schedule a showing today! Seller is VERY motivated bring ALL Offers!

19. 2026-02-07
    listed $189,000 Active 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    Investor special — priced to sell! 3 bed / 2 bath mobile home, approx. 1,440 sq ft, on approximately 1.21ac, offered AS-IS. This fixer-upper needs significant TLC and currently contains a large amount of trash and debris — bring your trash trailer and tools. Property also includes a garage. Great opportunity for investors or a buyer looking for a starter home to rehab and add value. Don’t miss it — schedule a showing today! Seller is VERY motivated bring ALL Offers!

20. 2002-09-13
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $770 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,322 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$553/yr (+$46/mo · 71.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 10 d/yr ≥102°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 48 unhealthy d/yr today · 55 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,763
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,747
• − Property taxes: −$770
• − Insurance: −$1,667
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,981
• − Management: −$1,981
• − Depreciation: −$5,062
• Taxable income: $3,555
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$853
• After-tax cash flow: $5,322/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mariposa County Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623940
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $48,669
• Composite: 29.75/100
• National rank: #6438
• State rank: #282 of 517 in CA

Livability — Nipinnawasee

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #1264
• US rank: #26405

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment B+ Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,248
• Population (ZIP): 10,164

Population outlook (Mariposa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,956 people
• By 2030: 15,078 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 13,413 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 12,232 · -23.3%
• By 2075: 11,143 · -30.2%
• By 2100: 10,187 · -36.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 4% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mariposa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.1% · R 59.1% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -12.4pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+18.1 2016: R+23.2 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+12.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.82%
• Current HPI: 140.3045
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+167.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $174,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-07 Listed $189,000 CRMLS
• 2002-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $770 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.