10337 Navarro Path · Conroe, TX 77316

$239,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,330 sqft · Land · 232 Days on market

Built 2025 5,125 sqft lot $60/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

READY NOW! Introducing the Primrose: This home has a 3-bedroom, 2-full bathroom home. This home boasts an open-concept living space that seamlessly merges the family room, dining area, and kitchen, creating an ideal setting for entertainment and relaxation. The kitchen has plentiful quartz countertops and ample cabinets, making meal preparation effortless. Indulge in the ultimate comfort of the owner's suite, accessed through a private entry off the family room. The owner's bedroom maximizes space and natural light with a bay window, while the spa-like bath retreat features a walk-in shower and a large walk-in closet, providing ample storage for all your belongings. For additional entertainment space, the covered patio is the perfect venue for outdoor gatherings. Contact us now to discover more about this exceptional home and make it yours today!

Key facts

• Ample cabinets
• Bay window
• Private entry

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• PLENTIFUL GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• AMPLE CABINETS
• PRIVATE ENTRY
• BAY WINDOW
• WALK-IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($970/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2300 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 232 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $202,062 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 232 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.44%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-38,952
• Equity at exit: $35,783

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-47,594
• Equity at exit: $20,750

Cash invested: $67,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2300
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,021 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,163/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,918

Max offer price $239,990

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $217	-5% $149	+0% $81	+5% $13	+10% $-55
Rent	-10% $-79	-5% $1	+0% $81	+5% $161	+10% $240
Rate	-1.0pp $202	-0.5pp $142	base $81	+0.5pp $19	+1.0pp $-45

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,998
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 858-char remark

   Show marketing remark (858 chars)

   READY NOW! Introducing the Primrose: This home has a 3-bedroom, 2-full bathroom home. This home boasts an open-concept living space that seamlessly merges the family room, dining area, and kitchen, creating an ideal setting for entertainment and relaxation. The kitchen has plentiful quartz countertops and ample cabinets, making meal preparation effortless. Indulge in the ultimate comfort of the owner's suite, accessed through a private entry off the family room. The owner's bedroom maximizes space and natural light with a bay window, while the spa-like bath retreat features a walk-in shower and a large walk-in closet, providing ample storage for all your belongings. For additional entertainment space, the covered patio is the perfect venue for outdoor gatherings. Contact us now to discover more about this exceptional home and make it yours today!

2. 2026-03-30
   price $239,990 858-char remark

   Show marketing remark (858 chars)

   READY NOW! Introducing the Primrose: This home has a 3-bedroom, 2-full bathroom home. This home boasts an open-concept living space that seamlessly merges the family room, dining area, and kitchen, creating an ideal setting for entertainment and relaxation. The kitchen has plentiful quartz countertops and ample cabinets, making meal preparation effortless. Indulge in the ultimate comfort of the owner's suite, accessed through a private entry off the family room. The owner's bedroom maximizes space and natural light with a bay window, while the spa-like bath retreat features a walk-in shower and a large walk-in closet, providing ample storage for all your belongings. For additional entertainment space, the covered patio is the perfect venue for outdoor gatherings. Contact us now to discover more about this exceptional home and make it yours today!

3. 2026-03-09
   price $242,990 858-char remark

   Show marketing remark (858 chars)

   READY NOW! Introducing the Primrose: This home has a 3-bedroom, 2-full bathroom home. This home boasts an open-concept living space that seamlessly merges the family room, dining area, and kitchen, creating an ideal setting for entertainment and relaxation. The kitchen has plentiful quartz countertops and ample cabinets, making meal preparation effortless. Indulge in the ultimate comfort of the owner's suite, accessed through a private entry off the family room. The owner's bedroom maximizes space and natural light with a bay window, while the spa-like bath retreat features a walk-in shower and a large walk-in closet, providing ample storage for all your belongings. For additional entertainment space, the covered patio is the perfect venue for outdoor gatherings. Contact us now to discover more about this exceptional home and make it yours today!

4. 2026-03-02
   price $244,990 858-char remark

   Show marketing remark (858 chars)

   READY NOW! Introducing the Primrose: This home has a 3-bedroom, 2-full bathroom home. This home boasts an open-concept living space that seamlessly merges the family room, dining area, and kitchen, creating an ideal setting for entertainment and relaxation. The kitchen has plentiful quartz countertops and ample cabinets, making meal preparation effortless. Indulge in the ultimate comfort of the owner's suite, accessed through a private entry off the family room. The owner's bedroom maximizes space and natural light with a bay window, while the spa-like bath retreat features a walk-in shower and a large walk-in closet, providing ample storage for all your belongings. For additional entertainment space, the covered patio is the perfect venue for outdoor gatherings. Contact us now to discover more about this exceptional home and make it yours today!

5. 2026-02-02
   price $248,990 858-char remark

   Show marketing remark (858 chars)

   READY NOW! Introducing the Primrose: This home has a 3-bedroom, 2-full bathroom home. This home boasts an open-concept living space that seamlessly merges the family room, dining area, and kitchen, creating an ideal setting for entertainment and relaxation. The kitchen has plentiful quartz countertops and ample cabinets, making meal preparation effortless. Indulge in the ultimate comfort of the owner's suite, accessed through a private entry off the family room. The owner's bedroom maximizes space and natural light with a bay window, while the spa-like bath retreat features a walk-in shower and a large walk-in closet, providing ample storage for all your belongings. For additional entertainment space, the covered patio is the perfect venue for outdoor gatherings. Contact us now to discover more about this exceptional home and make it yours today!

6. 2026-01-13
   price $249,990 858-char remark

   Show marketing remark (858 chars)

   READY NOW! Introducing the Primrose: This home has a 3-bedroom, 2-full bathroom home. This home boasts an open-concept living space that seamlessly merges the family room, dining area, and kitchen, creating an ideal setting for entertainment and relaxation. The kitchen has plentiful quartz countertops and ample cabinets, making meal preparation effortless. Indulge in the ultimate comfort of the owner's suite, accessed through a private entry off the family room. The owner's bedroom maximizes space and natural light with a bay window, while the spa-like bath retreat features a walk-in shower and a large walk-in closet, providing ample storage for all your belongings. For additional entertainment space, the covered patio is the perfect venue for outdoor gatherings. Contact us now to discover more about this exceptional home and make it yours today!

7. 2026-01-07
   price $255,990 858-char remark

   Show marketing remark (858 chars)

   READY NOW! Introducing the Primrose: This home has a 3-bedroom, 2-full bathroom home. This home boasts an open-concept living space that seamlessly merges the family room, dining area, and kitchen, creating an ideal setting for entertainment and relaxation. The kitchen has plentiful quartz countertops and ample cabinets, making meal preparation effortless. Indulge in the ultimate comfort of the owner's suite, accessed through a private entry off the family room. The owner's bedroom maximizes space and natural light with a bay window, while the spa-like bath retreat features a walk-in shower and a large walk-in closet, providing ample storage for all your belongings. For additional entertainment space, the covered patio is the perfect venue for outdoor gatherings. Contact us now to discover more about this exceptional home and make it yours today!

8. 2025-12-22
   price $275,990 858-char remark

   Show marketing remark (858 chars)

   READY NOW! Introducing the Primrose: This home has a 3-bedroom, 2-full bathroom home. This home boasts an open-concept living space that seamlessly merges the family room, dining area, and kitchen, creating an ideal setting for entertainment and relaxation. The kitchen has plentiful quartz countertops and ample cabinets, making meal preparation effortless. Indulge in the ultimate comfort of the owner's suite, accessed through a private entry off the family room. The owner's bedroom maximizes space and natural light with a bay window, while the spa-like bath retreat features a walk-in shower and a large walk-in closet, providing ample storage for all your belongings. For additional entertainment space, the covered patio is the perfect venue for outdoor gatherings. Contact us now to discover more about this exceptional home and make it yours today!

9. 2025-10-27
   price $277,990 858-char remark

   Show marketing remark (858 chars)

   READY NOW! Introducing the Primrose: This home has a 3-bedroom, 2-full bathroom home. This home boasts an open-concept living space that seamlessly merges the family room, dining area, and kitchen, creating an ideal setting for entertainment and relaxation. The kitchen has plentiful quartz countertops and ample cabinets, making meal preparation effortless. Indulge in the ultimate comfort of the owner's suite, accessed through a private entry off the family room. The owner's bedroom maximizes space and natural light with a bay window, while the spa-like bath retreat features a walk-in shower and a large walk-in closet, providing ample storage for all your belongings. For additional entertainment space, the covered patio is the perfect venue for outdoor gatherings. Contact us now to discover more about this exceptional home and make it yours today!

10. 2025-09-16
    listed $280,990 Active 858-char remark

    Show marketing remark (858 chars)

    READY NOW! Introducing the Primrose: This home has a 3-bedroom, 2-full bathroom home. This home boasts an open-concept living space that seamlessly merges the family room, dining area, and kitchen, creating an ideal setting for entertainment and relaxation. The kitchen has plentiful quartz countertops and ample cabinets, making meal preparation effortless. Indulge in the ultimate comfort of the owner's suite, accessed through a private entry off the family room. The owner's bedroom maximizes space and natural light with a bay window, while the spa-like bath retreat features a walk-in shower and a large walk-in closet, providing ample storage for all your belongings. For additional entertainment space, the covered patio is the perfect venue for outdoor gatherings. Contact us now to discover more about this exceptional home and make it yours today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,163 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,392 · $366/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,228/yr (+$269/mo · 277.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,247
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,443
• − Property taxes: −$1,163
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,940
• − Management: −$1,940
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$3,140
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$754
• After-tax cash flow: $1,723/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $239,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $242,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $244,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $248,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $249,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $255,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $275,990 HARMLS
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $277,990 HARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Listed $280,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,163 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.