2806 Fm 646 Rd N · Santa Fe, TX 77510

$249,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,650 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1978 0.55 ac lot $152/sqft · 30% below area Est $355k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming single-story brick home in Santa Fe sits on a spacious 24,063 sq ft lot, offering plenty of room to spread out and enjoy the outdoors. Built in 1978, the home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with approximately 1,650 sq ft of living space. The property includes a 2-car attached garage and a durable composition roof. With its classic brick exterior and large lot size, this home provides a great blend of indoor comfort and outdoor potential—ideal for those looking for extra space without HOA restrictions. Conveniently located along FM 646, this property offers easy access to nearby amenities while still maintaining a more open, residential feel. Zoned to Santa Fe Independent School District, including William F Barnett Elementary School, Santa Fe Junior High School, and Santa Fe High School. A great opportunity to own a well-located home with a large lot in Santa Fe—ready for your personal touch.

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Brick home
• 0.55 acre lot

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• SPACIOUS LOT
• DURABLE COMPOSITION ROOF
• EASY ACCESS TO AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18k ($222k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($26k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $235k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 95.1% vs local median 4.5% in Santa Fe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#550 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Fe ISD (suburban): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #385 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,999 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 10.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 95.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 317.06%
• DSCR: 15.11
• GRM: 0.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $355,494
• List price: $249,999
• Delta: -29.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14103 W 3rd St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,656 (+0%)	0mo	$349,990	$211	85
12210 3rd St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,624 (-2%)	9mo	$359,000	$221	70
2529 Fm 646 Rd N	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,788 (+8%)	4mo	$675,000	$378	64
12318 Allen Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,691 (+2%)	22mo	$353,000	$209	52
12302 Trista Ct	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,880 (+14%)	6mo	$500,000	$266	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.26×
• Total profit: $1,137,943
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 36.85×
• Total profit: $2,509,737
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77510

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 0.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $25,827 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$493 /mo · $5,919/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,424
• Net cashflow: $18,495

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,416

Max offer price $249,999

Occupancy floor 23%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13342 Pecan Trails Dr Santa Fe, TX	4.0	3.0	2150	$2,700	$1.26	43d	1	1.21mi
4120 Avenue O #10 Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$74,621	$58.30	43d	1	1.43mi
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Santa Fe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$2,445	$1.08	1d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,999 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,999 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,999 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,999 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,999 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   price $249,999 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,900 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,900 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $259,900 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $259,900 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,900 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $259,900 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $264,900 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $264,900 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    price $264,900 950-char remark

    Show marketing remark (950 chars)

    This charming single-story brick home in Santa Fe sits on a spacious 24,063 sq ft lot, offering plenty of room to spread out and enjoy the outdoors. Built in 1978, the home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with approximately 1,650 sq ft of living space. The property includes a 2-car attached garage and a durable composition roof. With its classic brick exterior and large lot size, this home provides a great blend of indoor comfort and outdoor potential—ideal for those looking for extra space without HOA restrictions. Conveniently located along FM 646, this property offers easy access to nearby amenities while still maintaining a more open, residential feel. Zoned to Santa Fe Independent School District, including William F Barnett Elementary School, Santa Fe Junior High School, and Santa Fe High School. A great opportunity to own a well-located home with a large lot in Santa Fe—ready for your personal touch.

16. 2026-04-18
    price $274,500 950-char remark

    Show marketing remark (950 chars)

    This charming single-story brick home in Santa Fe sits on a spacious 24,063 sq ft lot, offering plenty of room to spread out and enjoy the outdoors. Built in 1978, the home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with approximately 1,650 sq ft of living space. The property includes a 2-car attached garage and a durable composition roof. With its classic brick exterior and large lot size, this home provides a great blend of indoor comfort and outdoor potential—ideal for those looking for extra space without HOA restrictions. Conveniently located along FM 646, this property offers easy access to nearby amenities while still maintaining a more open, residential feel. Zoned to Santa Fe Independent School District, including William F Barnett Elementary School, Santa Fe Junior High School, and Santa Fe High School. A great opportunity to own a well-located home with a large lot in Santa Fe—ready for your personal touch.

17. 2026-04-15
    listed $289,999 Active 950-char remark

    Show marketing remark (950 chars)

    This charming single-story brick home in Santa Fe sits on a spacious 24,063 sq ft lot, offering plenty of room to spread out and enjoy the outdoors. Built in 1978, the home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with approximately 1,650 sq ft of living space. The property includes a 2-car attached garage and a durable composition roof. With its classic brick exterior and large lot size, this home provides a great blend of indoor comfort and outdoor potential—ideal for those looking for extra space without HOA restrictions. Conveniently located along FM 646, this property offers easy access to nearby amenities while still maintaining a more open, residential feel. Zoned to Santa Fe Independent School District, including William F Barnett Elementary School, Santa Fe Junior High School, and Santa Fe High School. A great opportunity to own a well-located home with a large lot in Santa Fe—ready for your personal touch.

18. 2023-12-08
    soldstatus
19. 2023-12-05
    soldstatus Sold 616-char remark

    Show marketing remark (616 chars)

    Affordable country living set on half an acre in Santa Fe ISD! Cute one story home features sunken family room with stone fireplace and walls of windows overlooking the beautiful tree shaded back yard and patio, formal dining room, kitchen and breakfast with refrigerator staying. Large laundry room. Primary bedroom has recent wood look flooring and updated bath with spa-like, oversized shower and HUGE custom walk in closet. Secondary bedrooms are nice size with good closet space. Roof 2016, AC 2015, Primary bath 2021 (per seller). Did not flood! Super low tax rate and no HOA! Call today for your private tour!

20. 2023-11-06
    status Pending 616-char remark

    Show marketing remark (616 chars)

    Affordable country living set on half an acre in Santa Fe ISD! Cute one story home features sunken family room with stone fireplace and walls of windows overlooking the beautiful tree shaded back yard and patio, formal dining room, kitchen and breakfast with refrigerator staying. Large laundry room. Primary bedroom has recent wood look flooring and updated bath with spa-like, oversized shower and HUGE custom walk in closet. Secondary bedrooms are nice size with good closet space. Roof 2016, AC 2015, Primary bath 2021 (per seller). Did not flood! Super low tax rate and no HOA! Call today for your private tour!

21. 2023-10-28
    status Option Pending 616-char remark

    Show marketing remark (616 chars)

    Affordable country living set on half an acre in Santa Fe ISD! Cute one story home features sunken family room with stone fireplace and walls of windows overlooking the beautiful tree shaded back yard and patio, formal dining room, kitchen and breakfast with refrigerator staying. Large laundry room. Primary bedroom has recent wood look flooring and updated bath with spa-like, oversized shower and HUGE custom walk in closet. Secondary bedrooms are nice size with good closet space. Roof 2016, AC 2015, Primary bath 2021 (per seller). Did not flood! Super low tax rate and no HOA! Call today for your private tour!

22. 2023-10-25
    price $225,000 616-char remark

    Show marketing remark (616 chars)

    Affordable country living set on half an acre in Santa Fe ISD! Cute one story home features sunken family room with stone fireplace and walls of windows overlooking the beautiful tree shaded back yard and patio, formal dining room, kitchen and breakfast with refrigerator staying. Large laundry room. Primary bedroom has recent wood look flooring and updated bath with spa-like, oversized shower and HUGE custom walk in closet. Secondary bedrooms are nice size with good closet space. Roof 2016, AC 2015, Primary bath 2021 (per seller). Did not flood! Super low tax rate and no HOA! Call today for your private tour!

23. 2023-10-18
    listed $230,000 Active 616-char remark

    Show marketing remark (616 chars)

    Affordable country living set on half an acre in Santa Fe ISD! Cute one story home features sunken family room with stone fireplace and walls of windows overlooking the beautiful tree shaded back yard and patio, formal dining room, kitchen and breakfast with refrigerator staying. Large laundry room. Primary bedroom has recent wood look flooring and updated bath with spa-like, oversized shower and HUGE custom walk in closet. Secondary bedrooms are nice size with good closet space. Roof 2016, AC 2015, Primary bath 2021 (per seller). Did not flood! Super low tax rate and no HOA! Call today for your private tour!

24. 2023-10-16
    historical $230,000 616-char remark

    Show marketing remark (616 chars)

    Affordable country living set on half an acre in Santa Fe ISD! Cute one story home features sunken family room with stone fireplace and walls of windows overlooking the beautiful tree shaded back yard and patio, formal dining room, kitchen and breakfast with refrigerator staying. Large laundry room. Primary bedroom has recent wood look flooring and updated bath with spa-like, oversized shower and HUGE custom walk in closet. Secondary bedrooms are nice size with good closet space. Roof 2016, AC 2015, Primary bath 2021 (per seller). Did not flood! Super low tax rate and no HOA! Call today for your private tour!

25. 2023-09-23
    historical
26. 2023-09-04
    price $250,000
27. 2023-08-07
    price $275,000
28. 2023-07-04
    listed $300,000 Active
29. 2018-09-13
    soldstatus Sold
30. 2018-09-13
    soldstatus
31. 2018-08-23
    status Pending
32. 2018-08-15
    status Option Pending
33. 2018-08-08
    listed $159,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,919 · $493/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,919 · $493/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $309,924
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$5,919
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$24,794
• − Management: −$24,794
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable income: $231,891
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$55,654
• After-tax cash flow: $166,285/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Fe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839270
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,769
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #5091
• State rank: #385 of 826 in TX

Livability — Santa Fe

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #550
• US rank: #10637

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Fe, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,938

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.15%
• Current HPI: 299.2228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+65.6% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $264,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $274,500 HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $289,999 HARMLS
• 2023-12-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-12-05 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-11-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-10-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-10-25 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2023-10-18 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2023-10-16 Coming Soon $230,000 HARMLS
• 2023-09-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-09-04 Price Changed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2023-08-07 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2023-07-04 Listed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2018-09-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-09-13 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-08-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-08-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-08-08 Listed $159,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,919 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.