430 Nantucket Dr · St. Charles, MO 63301

$235,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,596 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1975 10,807 sqft lot Est $286k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

GREAT HOUSE!!! 430 Nantucket is a great opportunity for an investor or a savvy homeowner wanting to build equity and make a home their own in the sought after St. Charles School district! The property has hardwood floors in the entrance with a dining room and office on either side. The HUGE kitchen is a blank slate for the kitchen of your dreams that walks into the cozy living room with a fireplace and walk out to the back patio. The basement is already finished and has a bathroom and multiple rooms down there that could be converted into bedrooms. The main level features 3 bedrooms, including a large primary suite and 2 other bedrooms. Whether you are looking for your next flip, or a proje

Key facts

• Finished basement
• Huge kitchen
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• HUGE KITCHEN
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• BACK PATIO
• ST. CHARLES SCHOOL DISTRICT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Natural gas connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Lot includes other landscaping/features; Residential lot of about 0.248 acres

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms total, three on the main level and one on the lower level
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms (two on the main level, one on the lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Partially finished basement; Living room fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $220 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (2.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (2.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.4% in St. Charles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Charles R-VI (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #51 of 324 in MO (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: George M. Null Elem. (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #231 of 1,115 statewide, top 24%, 249 students, 37% FRL); St. Charles High (math 42% / reading 54%, grade D, #153 of 521 statewide, top 29%, 817 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 301 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $86k; list at $235k implies a 175% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,239 (2.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.02%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $285,684
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
416 Dove Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-2%)	4mo	$299,900	$192	74
616 Norma Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,698 (+6%)	2mo	$280,000	$165	62
313 Gum Tree Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,802 (+13%)	1mo	$325,000	$180	62
417 Dove Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,484 (-7%)	8mo	$300,000	$202	62
9 Mallard Ct	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-12%)	7mo	$260,000	$185	61
2714 Linden Pl	0.43mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,622 (+2%)	4mo	$240,000	$148	61
2501 Fair Oaks Dr	0.40mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,667 (+4%)	6mo	$280,000	$168	58
5 Wayne St	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,644 (+3%)	8mo	$295,000	$179	58
116 S Cadillac Dr	0.49mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,704 (+7%)	1mo	$245,000	$144	52
122 Sue Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-10%)	10mo	$225,000	$156	46
820 Treadway Ave	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,788 (+12%)	1mo	$315,000	$176	42
28 Eau Claire Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,384 (-13%)	3mo	$275,000	$199	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-23,573
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-498
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63301

• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 301
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,292 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$260 /mo · $3,125/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,014

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $353	-5% $287	+0% $220	+5% $154	+10% $87
Rent	-10% $39	-5% $130	+0% $220	+5% $311	+10% $401
Rate	-1.0pp $339	-0.5pp $280	base $220	+0.5pp $159	+1.0pp $97

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
317 S Pam Ave Saint Charles, MO	4.0	2.5	1880	$2,484	$1.32	45d	1	0.25mi
820 Saint Charles Ave Saint Charles, MO	4.0	2.0	1288	$1,800	$1.40	45d	1	1.23mi
3149 Duquette Dr Saint Charles, MO	3.0	2.0	1597	$2,325	$1.46	45d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-22
   listed $235,000 Active
2. 1993-04-01
   soldstatus $85,600
3. 1990-11-01
   soldstatus $89,000
4. 1985-05-01
   soldstatus $78,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,125 · $260/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,125 · $260/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,509
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$3,125
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,201
• − Management: −$2,201
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$1,193
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$286
• After-tax cash flow: $2,930/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Charles R-VI
• NCES district ID: 2928920
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $52,897
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3486
• State rank: #51 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Charles

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Charles, MO
• County: Saint Charles County · 399,703 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 52,667
• Household income: $85,308
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1118.0

Population outlook (St. Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,857 people
• By 2030: 461,707 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 503,222 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 534,684 · +22.1%
• By 2075: 597,047 · +36.4%
• By 2100: 609,682 · +39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 7% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Charles

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+17.5 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+21.0 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -289.53%
• Current HPI: 221.0637
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.20%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+198.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $235,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $85,600 Public Records
• 1990-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records
• 1985-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $78,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+21.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,125 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.